Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 23.55% 22.9-24.2% 23.0% 22.0% 19.5% | 100% 97% 85% 72% 53% 36.1% | -0.5 -1.5 -4.0 | MODEL HIGHER
2 Arizona 1 18.14% 17.5-18.8% 15.0% 12.5% 14.4% | 100% 97% 85% 68% 48% 30.5% | -3.1 -5.6 -3.8 | MODEL HIGHER
3 Michigan 1 16.70% 16.1-17.3% 19.0% 18.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 84% 68% 47% 29.8% | +2.3 +1.3 +2.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Florida 2 8.53% 8.1-9.0% 17.0% 11.7% 10.4% | 80% 75% 64% 48% 28% 15.8% | +8.5 +3.2 +1.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
5 Houston 2 8.02% 7.6-8.5% 7.0% 8.0% 6.6% | 80% 77% 67% 50% 28% 15.6% | -1.0 -0.0 -1.4 |
6 Illinois 2 5.39% 5.0-5.8% 5.0% 4.3% 4.6% | 81% 77% 63% 45% 24% 11.9% | -0.4 -1.1 -0.8 |
7 Connecticut 2 3.71% 3.4-4.0% 6.0% 7.4% 5.1% | 79% 74% 60% 40% 20% 9.2% | +2.3 +3.7 +1.4 | MARKETS HIGHER
8 Iowa St 3 2.41% 2.2-2.7% 4.0% 2.9% 3.7% | 100% 91% 64% 32% 13% 5.8% | +1.6 +0.5 +1.3 |
9 Michigan St 2 2.24% 2.0-2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% | 80% 75% 56% 34% 15% 6.2% | -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 | ALIGNED
10 Gonzaga 4 2.24% 2.0-2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% | 81% 71% 51% 22% 13% 6.0% | -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 | ALIGNED
11 Purdue 3 1.78% 1.6-2.0% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% | 100% 92% 65% 34% 12% 5.1% | +1.2 +1.3 +0.9 |
12 Nebraska 4 0.73% 0.60-0.87% 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% | 80% 71% 40% 15% 7% 2.4% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.3 |
13 Kansas 4 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 3.0% 1.7% 1.9% | 80% 70% 45% 16% 7% 2.5% | +2.3 +1.0 +1.2 |
14 Alabama 4 0.70% 0.56-0.84% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 80% 70% 43% 16% 7% 2.5% | +0.3 +0.1 +0.7 |
15 Louisville 6 0.70% 0.57-0.84% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% | 100% 76% 47% 18% 7% 2.2% | +0.3 -0.2 +0.3 |
16 Virginia 3 0.63% 0.50-0.77% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% | 100% 94% 54% 21% 6% 2.0% | +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 |
17 Tennessee 5 0.54% 0.42-0.66% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% | 80% 66% 34% 11% 5% 1.8% | +0.5 +0.1 +0.8 |
18 Texas Tech 4 0.48% 0.37-0.60% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% | 79% 72% 42% 14% 6% 1.9% | +0.5 +1.5 +0.3 |
19 St John's 5 0.41% 0.31-0.52% 2.0% 1.0% 1.4% | 80% 66% 32% 12% 5% 1.5% | +1.6 +0.6 +1.0 |
20 Vanderbilt 5 0.34% 0.25-0.44% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% | 80% 67% 32% 11% 4% 1.3% | +1.7 +0.2 +0.6 |
21 St Mary's CA 8 0.29% 0.20-0.38% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 52% 22% 9% 3% 1.0% | +0.7 -- +0.1 |
22 Arkansas 5 0.21% 0.14-0.29% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 80% 64% 31% 10% 4% 0.9% | +1.8 +0.6 +1.3 |
23 BYU 6 0.19% 0.12-0.26% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 66% 33% 11% 3% 0.9% | +0.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 Utah St 8 0.18% 0.11-0.25% -- -- 0.3% | 68% 50% 22% 8% 3% 0.7% | -- -- +0.1 |
25 Kentucky 7 0.16% 0.10-0.23% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% | 100% 62% 17% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.8 +0.2 +0.8 |
26 North Carolina 5 0.14% 0.08-0.20% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% | 80% 58% 23% 6% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +1.6 +0.6 |
27 Wisconsin 6 0.14% 0.08-0.20% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 100% 65% 35% 11% 3% 0.8% | +0.9 -- +0.6 |
28 Georgia 8 0.11% 0.06-0.17% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 50% 20% 8% 3% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
29 St Louis 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 66% 52% 21% 8% 3% 0.7% | +0.9 +0.4 +0.4 |
30 Villanova 6 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 61% 30% 9% 3% 0.6% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
31 Clemson 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 67% 51% 20% 8% 3% 0.6% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 |
32 NC State 8 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 66% 48% 19% 7% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 +0.5 +0.3 |
33 Auburn 11 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 49% 26% 13% 4% 1% 0.2% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.1 |
34 UCLA 9 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 50% 7% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.4 |
35 UCF 10 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 56% 48% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
36 Indiana 11 0.02% 0.00-0.04% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 51% 20% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
37 Ohio St 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 49% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
38 SMU 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 58% 49% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
39 Texas A&M 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 58% 49% 11% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
40 Texas 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 48% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
41 Iowa 9 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 47% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
42 South Florida 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- 0.1% | 66% 17% 5% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
43 New Mexico 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- | 50% 14% 5% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- -- |
44 Missouri 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 48% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
45 San Diego St 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 14% 6% 1% 0% 0.0% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
46 Santa Clara 11 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 49% 19% 9% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53845 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 08 00:00 CET | BPI: Mar 08 00:04 CET | Odds: Mar 08 00:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 08 00:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 07 00:35 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Duke: model 23.5% vs sharp 19.5% (+4.0%)
▲ Arizona: model 18.1% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.8%)
▲ Houston: model 8.0% vs sharp 6.6% (+1.4%)