24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - Arizona 1 21.04% 20.4-21.7% 21.0% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.1% | -6.0 -6.5 -5.5 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.45% 17.8-19.1% 19.3% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 79% 64% 47% 28.5% | +2.5 +2.5 +1.3 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.78% 11.3-12.3% 16.1% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 73% 55% 37% 21.4% | +10.2 +10.2 +8.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.60% 9.1-10.1% 6.8% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 48% 30% 18.1% | -2.6 -0.6 -1.7 |
5 - Florida 1 7.72% 7.3-8.2% 9.3% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 52% 29% 16.5% | +5.3 +3.9 +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 5.31% 4.9-5.7% 4.5% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 86% 66% 35% 21% 11.8% | -0.3 -1.2 -1.1 |
7 - Iowa St 2 4.93% 4.6-5.3% 6.0% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 72% 46% 25% 12.3% | -0.9 -2.2 -1.4 |
8 - Connecticut 2 3.78% 3.5-4.1% 1.8% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 44% 21% 8.2% | +2.2 +1.1 +0.9 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.56% 3.3-3.9% 4.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 69% 43% 18% 8.1% | -0.6 -0.8 -1.4 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.55% 2.3-2.8% 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 61% 34% 12% 5.0% | -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.49% 1.3-1.7% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 54% 21% 10% 4.2% | -- -0.4 -0.6 |
12 - Michigan St 3 1.46% 1.3-1.7% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 50% 25% 9% 3.5% | +1.5 +0.0 +0.3 |
13 ▲1 Tennessee 6 0.94% 0.79-1.10% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.8% | -- +0.2 -0.0 | ALIGNED
14 ▲3 Arkansas 5 0.85% 0.70-1.01% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 41% 12% 5% 2.1% | +1.1 -0.1 +0.6 |
15 ▼2 Nebraska 4 0.84% 0.70-0.99% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 47% 18% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.0 |
16 - Vanderbilt 4 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 44% 14% 6% 2.4% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.6 |
17 ▼2 Louisville 6 0.71% 0.58-0.85% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 20% 6% 1.8% | -- -0.2 +0.1 |
18 - St John's 5 0.65% 0.52-0.79% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 76% 38% 13% 6% 2.0% | +1.4 +0.4 +0.8 |
19 ▲1 Kansas 4 0.65% 0.52-0.78% 0.6% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 85% 55% 17% 8% 2.2% | +1.4 -0.1 +1.1 |
20 ▼1 Virginia 3 0.61% 0.49-0.74% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 42% 18% 7% 2.3% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
21 - Texas Tech 5 0.56% 0.44-0.69% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 74% 41% 16% 6% 2.0% | -- +0.0 +0.3 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.26% 0.18-0.35% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 73% 33% 9% 4% 1.0% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.24% 0.16-0.32% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 65% 29% 10% 3% 0.8% | +1.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.22% 0.15-0.30% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 68% 20% 10% 3% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.6 |
25 ▲1 Villanova 8 0.14% 0.08-0.20% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 59% 13% 5% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▲3 Utah St 7 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 49% 16% 6% 1% 0.4% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 ▼2 St Mary's CA 7 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 58% 15% 5% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
28 - Georgia 8 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 50% 15% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 ▲1 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 53% 14% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
30 ▼3 North Carolina 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 20% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
31 - Ohio St 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 49% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
32 ▲4 Iowa 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 51% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
33 - Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.1 |
34 ▲1 St Louis 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 50% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
35 ▼3 UCLA 8 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 47% 11% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.4 +0.6 |
36 ▼2 Miami FL 7 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 51% 16% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
37 ▲11 Texas A&M 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 42% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
38 ▼1 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
39 ▲1 VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 11% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▲4 Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 35% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 ▲5 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 49% 12% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 ▲5 High Point 13 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.0 |
43 ▼2 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 24% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
44 ▼6 NC State 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 51% 14% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
45 - Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
46 ▼3 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▼5 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 26% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 21 03:30 CET | BPI: Mar 21 03:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 21 03:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 21 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.0% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.5%)
▲ Houston: model 9.6% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.7%)
▲ Illinois: model 5.3% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.1%)
▲ Iowa St: model 4.9% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.4%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.6% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.4%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.5% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.0%)