24h Team                   Seed     Ens%         90% CI     LR%    Kal%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1  -   Arizona                   1   21.85%     21.2-22.5%   19.1%   15.0%   14.5%   15.5% |  100%   95%   82%   65%   52% 35.0% |   -6.9   -7.4   -6.3 | MODEL HIGHER
  2  -   Duke                      1   17.99%     17.4-18.6%   19.8%   21.0%   21.0%   19.8% |  100%   94%   79%   65%   46% 27.7% |   +3.0   +3.0   +1.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
  3  -   Michigan                  1   11.95%     11.4-12.5%   17.6%   22.0%   22.0%   20.5% |  100%   90%   73%   55%   37% 21.7% |  +10.1  +10.1   +8.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4  -   Houston                   2    9.19%       8.7-9.7%    8.2%    7.0%    9.0%    7.9% |  100%   94%   76%   48%   30% 17.7% |   -2.2   -0.2   -1.3 | 
  5  -   Florida                   1    8.24%       7.8-8.7%    8.2%   13.0%   11.6%   10.9% |  100%   93%   74%   52%   29% 17.3% |   +4.8   +3.4   +2.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
  6 ▲1   Iowa St                   2    5.18%       4.8-5.5%    5.4%    4.0%    2.7%    3.6% |  100%   92%   73%   48%   26% 12.8% |   -1.2   -2.5   -1.6 | 
  7 ▼1   Illinois                  3    5.08%       4.7-5.4%    5.2%    5.0%    4.1%    4.2% |  100%   89%   68%   36%   21% 11.5% |   -0.1   -1.0   -0.8 | 
  8  -   Connecticut               2    3.96%       3.6-4.3%    1.4%    6.0%    4.9%    4.7% |  100%   88%   70%   44%   22%  8.6% |   +2.0   +0.9   +0.7 | 
  9  -   Purdue                    2    3.48%       3.2-3.8%    4.9%    3.0%    2.8%    2.2% |  100%   92%   69%   42%   17%  7.8% |   -0.5   -0.7   -1.3 | 
 10  -   Gonzaga                   3    2.52%       2.3-2.8%    1.3%    2.0%    1.6%    1.5% |  100%   91%   60%   33%   12%  5.0% |   -0.5   -0.9   -1.0 | 
 11 ▲1   Michigan St               3    1.70%       1.5-1.9%    1.9%    3.0%    1.5%    1.8% |  100%   90%   55%   27%   11%  4.0% |   +1.3   -0.2   +0.1 | ALIGNED
 12 ▼1   Alabama                   4    1.37%       1.2-1.6%    0.5%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   86%   54%   21%   10%  4.0% |     --   -0.3   -0.5 | ALIGNED
 13  -   Tennessee                 6    0.90%     0.75-1.06%    0.6%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   69%   43%   20%    7%  2.8% |     --   +0.2   +0.0 | ALIGNED
 14 ▲1   Nebraska                  4    0.78%     0.64-0.93%    1.1%    1.0%    1.0%    0.9% |  100%   88%   47%   18%    7%  2.5% |     --   +0.2   +0.1 | 
 15 ▼1   Arkansas                  5    0.74%     0.60-0.88%    0.3%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   73%   42%   12%    5%  2.1% |   +1.3   +0.1   +0.7 | 
 16  -   St John's                 5    0.67%     0.54-0.81%    0.7%    2.0%    1.1%    1.5% |  100%   78%   39%   13%    6%  2.1% |   +1.3   +0.4   +0.8 | 
 17 ▲4   Texas Tech                5    0.60%     0.48-0.73%    0.4%    1.0%    0.6%    0.8% |  100%   74%   42%   16%    6%  2.1% |     --   +0.0   +0.2 | 
 18 ▼1   Vanderbilt                4    0.60%     0.48-0.73%    0.9%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   79%   41%   13%    6%  2.2% |   +1.4   +0.2   +0.8 | 
 19 ▼1   Louisville                6    0.56%     0.44-0.69%    0.3%    1.0%    0.5%    0.8% |  100%   72%   36%   17%    6%  1.7% |     --   -0.1   +0.2 | 
 20  -   Virginia                  3    0.44%     0.34-0.55%    0.9%    1.0%    1.1%    1.2% |  100%   87%   41%   17%    6%  1.9% |     --   +0.7   +0.8 | 
 21 ▼2   Kansas                    4    0.43%     0.33-0.54%    0.3%    2.0%    0.5%    1.7% |  100%   84%   52%   16%    7%  1.8% |   +1.6   +0.1   +1.3 | 
 22  -   Wisconsin                 5    0.29%     0.20-0.38%    0.3%    2.0%    --      1.3% |  100%   75%   37%   10%    4%  1.1% |   +1.7     --   +1.0 | 
 23  -   BYU                       6    0.27%     0.19-0.36%    0.1%    2.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   64%   29%   10%    3%  0.8% |   +1.7   +0.0   +0.2 | 
 24  -   Kentucky                  7    0.21%     0.14-0.29%    0.1%    1.0%    0.3%    0.9% |  100%   69%   20%   10%    3%  1.0% |     --   +0.1   +0.7 | 
 25 ▲1   Utah St                   7    0.11%     0.06-0.17%    0.1%    --      --      0.3% |  100%   53%   17%    6%    2%  0.5% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 26 ▲1   St Mary's CA              7    0.09%     0.04-0.14%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   55%   14%    5%    1%  0.5% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 27 ▼2   Villanova                 8    0.09%     0.04-0.14%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   55%   12%    5%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 28 ▲1   Clemson                   9    0.08%     0.04-0.13%    0.0%    1.0%    0.1%    0.3% |  100%   50%   13%    6%    2%  0.4% |     --   +0.0   +0.2 | 
 29 ▼1   Georgia                   8    0.07%     0.03-0.12%    0.0%    --      --      0.2% |  100%   51%   16%    6%    2%  0.5% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 30  -   North Carolina            6    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    0.0%    1.0%    0.7%    0.7% |  100%   58%   18%    4%    1%  0.3% |     --   +0.6   +0.6 | 
 31 ▲1   Iowa                      9    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.4% |  100%   56%    9%    4%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 32 ▼1   Miami FL                  7    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   58%   18%    6%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 33  -   Ohio St                   8    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   44%    8%    3%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 34 ▲2   UCLA                      8    0.04%     0.01-0.07%    0.1%    1.0%    0.4%    0.6% |  100%   50%   12%    5%    1%  0.2% |     --   +0.4   +0.6 | 
 35 ▲2   Texas A&M                10    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.4% |  100%   45%   10%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 36 ▼2   Santa Clara              11    0.04%     0.01-0.07%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   31%   13%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 37 ▲1   South Florida            11    0.03%     0.00-0.06%    --      --      --      0.1% |  100%   28%    7%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 38 ▼3   St Louis                  9    0.03%     0.00-0.06%    0.0%    1.0%    0.3%    0.3% |  100%   49%   10%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --   +0.3   +0.2 | 
 39  -   VCU                      11    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   42%   11%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 40  -   Texas                    11    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   36%   10%    3%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 41 ▲1   UCF                      10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   42%   10%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 42 ▲1   Miami OH                 12    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   22%    4%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 43 ▲7   TCU                       9    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    0.0%    --      --      0.2% |  100%   45%    8%    2%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 44 ▲3   NC State                 10    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    0.1%    1.0%    0.2%    0.3% |  100%   47%   13%    4%    1%  0.1% |     --   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 45 ▼4   Missouri                 10    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   31%    6%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 46  -   McNeese St               12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --     99.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   26%   10%    2%    0%  0.1% |  +99.0     --   +0.1 | 
 47 ▼3   High Point               13    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   21%    6%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 48  -   SMU                      12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   27%   10%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973  |  10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 22 07:00 CET | BPI: Mar 22 07:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 22 07:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 22 01:05 CET

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Arizona: model 21.9% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.3%)
  ▲ Houston: model 9.2% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.3%)
  ▲ Iowa St: model 5.2% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.6%)
  ▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)
  ▲ Gonzaga: model 2.5% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.0%)