Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 21.07% 20.4-21.7% 24.0% 22.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 85% 70% 52% 33.9% | +2.9 +0.9 -1.5 |
2 Arizona 1 17.47% 16.8-18.1% 14.0% 11.9% 14.4% | 100% 97% 84% 69% 50% 30.1% | -3.5 -5.6 -3.1 | MODEL HIGHER
3 Michigan 1 16.61% 16.0-17.2% 21.0% 18.0% 19.5% | 100% 95% 84% 67% 48% 29.6% | +4.4 +1.4 +2.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Florida 1 10.78% 10.3-11.3% 15.0% 11.7% 10.4% | 100% 95% 80% 59% 39% 21.4% | +4.2 +0.9 -0.4 |
5 Houston 2 9.82% 9.3-10.3% 7.0% 8.0% 7.2% | 100% 95% 81% 66% 35% 18.7% | -2.8 -1.8 -2.6 | MODEL HIGHER
6 Illinois 2 6.84% 6.4-7.3% 5.0% 4.3% 4.6% | 100% 95% 79% 60% 30% 14.8% | -1.8 -2.5 -2.2 | MODEL HIGHER
7 Connecticut 2 5.47% 5.1-5.9% 7.0% 6.0% 4.5% | 100% 93% 75% 56% 26% 12.5% | +1.5 +0.5 -1.0 | ALIGNED
8 Michigan St 2 2.45% 2.2-2.7% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% | 100% 94% 69% 48% 19% 7.2% | -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 | ALIGNED
9 Iowa St 3 2.22% 2.0-2.5% 4.0% 2.9% 3.7% | 100% 90% 63% 31% 13% 5.4% | +1.8 +0.7 +1.5 |
10 Gonzaga 4 1.17% 1.0-1.4% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% | 50% 44% 33% 12% 7% 3.2% | +0.8 +0.5 +0.6 |
11 Purdue 4 1.03% 0.9-1.2% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% | 49% 44% 32% 11% 6% 2.6% | +2.0 +2.1 +1.6 |
12 Louisville 6 0.58% 0.46-0.71% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% | 100% 76% 60% 24% 7% 2.1% | +0.4 +0.1 +0.4 |
13 Tennessee 5 0.47% 0.36-0.59% 1.0% 0.7% 1.3% | 100% 85% 44% 11% 5% 1.6% | +0.5 +0.2 +0.8 |
14 St John's 4 0.46% 0.35-0.57% 2.0% 1.1% 1.4% | 50% 44% 28% 8% 3% 1.3% | +1.5 +0.6 +1.0 |
15 Nebraska 4 0.42% 0.32-0.53% 2.0% 1.0% 1.1% | 50% 44% 28% 9% 4% 1.6% | +1.6 +0.6 +0.6 |
16 Alabama 4 0.38% 0.28-0.48% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 50% 43% 28% 8% 4% 1.3% | +0.6 +0.4 +1.1 |
17 Vanderbilt 5 0.38% 0.28-0.49% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% | 100% 86% 41% 12% 5% 1.6% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.5 |
18 Kansas 4 0.37% 0.27-0.47% 3.0% 1.8% 1.9% | 50% 44% 30% 8% 4% 1.3% | +2.6 +1.4 +1.5 |
19 Arkansas 5 0.32% 0.23-0.42% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 100% 83% 41% 11% 4% 1.2% | +1.7 +0.5 +1.2 |
20 Texas Tech 4 0.27% 0.19-0.36% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% | 49% 44% 29% 7% 3% 1.0% | +0.7 +1.1 +0.5 |
21 Virginia 4 0.24% 0.16-0.32% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% | 51% 46% 28% 7% 3% 0.8% | +0.8 +1.0 +0.8 |
22 Villanova 6 0.15% 0.09-0.22% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 62% 46% 15% 3% 0.9% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
23 Kentucky 7 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% | 100% 62% 17% 9% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 +0.3 +0.8 |
24 Wisconsin 6 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 2.0% -- 0.8% | 100% 66% 52% 16% 4% 0.8% | +1.9 -- +0.7 |
25 St Louis 8 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 80% 54% 8% 4% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.4 +0.4 |
26 St Mary's CA 8 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 80% 56% 11% 5% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
27 BYU 7 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% | 100% 63% 18% 9% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.5 +0.5 |
28 North Carolina 6 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% | 100% 64% 47% 14% 4% 0.6% | +0.9 +1.6 +0.6 |
29 Auburn 11 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 44% 23% 17% 5% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.1 |
30 SMU 10 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 57% 39% 8% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
31 Utah St 8 0.04% 0.01-0.08% -- -- 0.3% | 80% 50% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
32 Georgia 8 0.04% 0.01-0.08% -- -- 0.3% | 80% 52% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
33 Clemson 8 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 80% 53% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.4 |
34 NC State 9 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 100% 45% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
35 Texas A&M 10 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 40% 9% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
36 Iowa 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 47% 7% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
37 UCLA 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 44% 7% 2% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.4 |
38 Texas 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 39% 9% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
39 Santa Clara 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 45% 18% 13% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
40 Ohio St 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 58% 41% 9% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
41 VCU 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 44% 15% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
42 TCU 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- 0.2% | 57% 39% 8% 3% 1% 0.0% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 South Florida 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- 0.1% | 43% 14% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
44 UCF 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 57% 39% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
45 Miami OH 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.1% | 44% 12% 6% 1% 0% 0.0% | +1.0 -- +0.1 |
46 Utah Valley 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- | 67% 9% 2% 0% 0% 0.0% | -- -- -- |
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53845 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 08 09:00 CET | BPI: Mar 08 09:04 CET | Odds: Mar 08 09:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 08 09:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 08 01:06 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Duke: model 21.1% vs sharp 19.5% (+1.5%)
▲ Arizona: model 17.5% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.1%)
▲ Houston: model 9.8% vs sharp 7.2% (+2.6%)
▲ Illinois: model 6.8% vs sharp 4.6% (+2.2%)