24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - Arizona 1 22.46% 21.8-23.2% 19.0% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 67% 54% 35.3% | -7.5 -8.0 -6.9 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.00% 17.4-18.6% 22.6% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 80% 61% 45% 27.5% | +3.0 +3.0 +1.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 12.30% 11.8-12.8% 20.0% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 88% 70% 55% 37% 22.3% | +9.7 +9.7 +8.2 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.39% 8.9-9.9% 6.5% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 93% 78% 49% 31% 18.2% | -2.4 -0.4 -1.5 |
5 - Florida 1 7.78% 7.3-8.2% 8.2% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 94% 72% 51% 28% 16.3% | +5.2 +3.8 +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 5.04% 4.7-5.4% 3.7% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 36% 21% 11.5% | -0.0 -0.9 -0.8 |
7 ▲1 Iowa St 2 4.70% 4.3-5.1% 5.0% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 91% 71% 46% 24% 12.2% | -0.7 -2.0 -1.1 |
8 ▼1 Connecticut 2 3.88% 3.6-4.2% 1.7% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 45% 21% 8.0% | +2.1 +1.0 +0.8 |
9 - Purdue 3 2.71% 2.5-3.0% 3.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 90% 68% 42% 15% 6.5% | +0.3 +0.1 -0.6 | ALIGNED
10 - Gonzaga 4 2.02% 1.8-2.3% 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 87% 62% 18% 10% 4.3% | -0.0 -0.4 -0.5 | ALIGNED
11 ▲1 Alabama 4 1.49% 1.3-1.7% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 78% 50% 18% 10% 4.1% | -- -0.4 -0.6 |
12 ▼1 Michigan St 2 1.36% 1.2-1.6% 1.4% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 91% 59% 30% 10% 3.9% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.4 |
13 ▲1 Vanderbilt 3 1.22% 1.1-1.4% 1.2% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 88% 53% 25% 8% 2.9% | +0.8 -0.4 +0.2 | ALIGNED
14 ▲2 Arkansas 5 1.07% 0.9-1.2% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 86% 48% 19% 9% 3.3% | +0.9 -0.3 +0.4 | ALIGNED
15 ▲3 Louisville 6 1.06% 0.9-1.2% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 46% 22% 9% 3.4% | -- -0.6 -0.3 | ALIGNED
16 ▼3 Nebraska 4 0.83% 0.68-0.98% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 87% 50% 20% 7% 2.8% | -- +0.2 +0.0 |
17 ▼2 Tennessee 6 0.78% 0.64-0.93% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 73% 38% 19% 6% 2.0% | -- +0.3 +0.1 |
18 ▲1 St John's 4 0.65% 0.52-0.78% 0.4% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 80% 44% 14% 6% 2.3% | +1.4 +0.4 +0.8 |
19 ▲1 Virginia 3 0.55% 0.43-0.68% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 85% 39% 17% 6% 1.9% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
20 ▼3 Kansas 5 0.49% 0.38-0.60% 0.2% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 76% 36% 11% 5% 1.5% | +1.5 +0.0 +1.2 |
21 ▲1 Texas Tech 5 0.44% 0.33-0.55% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 77% 41% 14% 5% 1.5% | -- +0.2 +0.4 |
22 ▼1 BYU 6 0.35% 0.26-0.45% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 67% 23% 11% 3% 1.0% | +1.7 -0.1 +0.2 |
23 ▲3 Georgia 8 0.17% 0.10-0.24% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 63% 20% 9% 3% 0.9% | -- -- +0.1 |
24 ▼1 St Mary's CA 8 0.16% 0.10-0.23% 0.2% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 58% 17% 8% 2% 0.7% | -- -- +0.1 |
25 ▲5 Wisconsin 5 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.2% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 67% 26% 6% 3% 0.7% | +1.9 -- +1.1 |
26 ▼2 Kentucky 7 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 58% 25% 9% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.2 +0.8 |
27 ▲2 UCLA 7 0.10% 0.05-0.16% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 63% 19% 8% 2% 0.6% | -- +0.3 +0.5 |
28 ▼3 Utah St 7 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 56% 13% 4% 1% 0.4% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 ▼2 North Carolina 6 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 64% 20% 5% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
30 ▲12 Villanova 8 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 45% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
31 ▼3 Clemson 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 49% 9% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
32 ▲3 Ohio St 9 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 42% 11% 5% 1% 0.4% | -- -- +0.4 |
33 ▼2 Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 58% 18% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 ▼2 Iowa 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 51% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
35 ▼2 Santa Clara 11 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 28% 12% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
36 ▲5 Texas A&M 10 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 44% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
37 ▼3 St Louis 9 0.03% 0.01-0.06% -- 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 55% 10% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
38 ▲6 UCF 10 0.03% 0.01-0.06% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
39 - VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 36% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 - NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 42% 14% 4% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
41 ▲4 South Florida 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 27% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
42 ▲5 High Point 13 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.0 |
43 ▼5 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 33% 9% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 ▼8 Texas 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 33% 8% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
45 ▲3 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 24% 7% 1% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
46 ▼3 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 23% 6% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▲6 Miami OH 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 14% 4% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
48 ▼2 TCU 9 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 15 20:30 CET | BPI: Mar 15 20:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 15 20:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 15 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 22.5% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.9%)
▲ Houston: model 9.4% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.5%)
▲ Iowa St: model 4.7% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.1%)