24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - Arizona 1 21.76% 21.1-22.4% 19.9% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.8% | -6.8 -7.3 -6.2 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 16.64% 16.0-17.3% 17.4% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 78% 63% 44% 25.9% | +4.4 +4.4 +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.85% 11.3-12.4% 17.0% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 73% 55% 37% 21.4% | +10.2 +10.2 +8.7 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.58% 9.1-10.1% 7.7% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 49% 30% 18.0% | -2.6 -0.6 -1.7 |
5 - Florida 1 8.32% 7.9-8.8% 9.7% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 53% 30% 17.3% | +4.7 +3.3 +2.5 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 4.88% 4.5-5.2% 4.2% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 85% 65% 34% 20% 11.1% | +0.1 -0.8 -0.6 | ALIGNED
7 - Iowa St 2 4.86% 4.5-5.2% 5.7% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 71% 46% 25% 12.3% | -0.9 -2.2 -1.3 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.50% 4.2-4.8% 2.2% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 71% 45% 23% 9.4% | +1.5 +0.4 +0.2 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.40% 3.1-3.7% 4.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 91% 69% 42% 17% 7.9% | -0.4 -0.6 -1.2 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.64% 2.4-2.9% 1.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 5.3% | -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.49% 1.3-1.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 53% 21% 10% 4.3% | -- -0.4 -0.6 |
12 - Michigan St 3 1.44% 1.2-1.6% 1.9% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 49% 24% 9% 3.5% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.3 |
13 ▲2 Nebraska 4 0.89% 0.74-1.05% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 48% 19% 7% 2.7% | -- +0.1 -0.0 | ALIGNED
14 - Tennessee 6 0.88% 0.73-1.04% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.5% | -- +0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
15 ▲3 Louisville 6 0.88% 0.73-1.04% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 20% 7% 2.4% | -- -0.4 -0.1 | ALIGNED
16 - Vanderbilt 4 0.83% 0.68-0.98% 1.2% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 44% 15% 6% 2.5% | +1.2 -0.0 +0.5 |
17 ▼4 Arkansas 5 0.82% 0.68-0.97% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 40% 12% 5% 2.1% | +1.2 -0.0 +0.6 |
18 ▼1 St John's 5 0.76% 0.62-0.90% 0.8% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 76% 39% 13% 6% 2.3% | +1.2 +0.3 +0.7 |
19 - Virginia 3 0.58% 0.46-0.71% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 41% 18% 6% 2.0% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
20 - Kansas 4 0.55% 0.43-0.67% 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 83% 52% 16% 7% 2.0% | +1.5 -0.0 +1.2 |
21 - Texas Tech 5 0.47% 0.36-0.59% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 72% 40% 14% 5% 1.5% | -- +0.1 +0.4 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.30% 0.21-0.39% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 73% 36% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.29% 0.21-0.38% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 65% 30% 11% 3% 0.9% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 ▲7 Kentucky 7 0.21% 0.14-0.29% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 68% 20% 9% 3% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.7 |
25 ▼1 St Mary's CA 7 0.16% 0.10-0.23% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 64% 16% 6% 2% 0.7% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▲11 Villanova 8 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 59% 13% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 ▲1 North Carolina 6 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 63% 22% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
28 ▼2 Georgia 8 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 0.1% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 50% 16% 6% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
29 ▼2 Utah St 7 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 50% 16% 6% 1% 0.4% | -- -- +0.2 |
30 ▼1 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 52% 14% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
31 ▼6 Ohio St 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 50% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
32 ▼2 UCLA 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 48% 11% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.6 |
33 ▲7 Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 14% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.1 |
34 ▼1 Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 55% 17% 6% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
35 - St Louis 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% -- 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 50% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.2 +0.2 |
36 ▼2 Iowa 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 50% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.3 |
37 ▲2 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 - NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 50% 14% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
39 ▲11 TCU 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 41% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▼8 VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 10% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 ▲6 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.04% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 24% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
42 ▲3 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
43 ▼2 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 ▼2 Texas 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 35% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
45 ▲1 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
46 ▼2 UCF 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 45% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▲1 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 20 03:30 CET | BPI: Mar 20 03:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 20 03:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 20 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.8% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.2%)
▲ Houston: model 9.6% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.7%)
▲ Iowa St: model 4.9% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.3%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.4% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.2%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.6% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)