24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - Arizona 1 21.06% 20.4-21.8% 19.8% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.0% | -6.1 -6.6 -5.5 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.38% 17.8-19.0% 18.7% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 79% 65% 46% 28.2% | +2.6 +2.6 +1.4 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.61% 11.1-12.1% 16.4% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 73% 54% 36% 21.0% | +10.4 +10.4 +8.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.38% 8.9-9.9% 7.1% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 48% 30% 17.6% | -2.4 -0.4 -1.5 |
5 - Florida 1 7.77% 7.3-8.2% 9.0% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 52% 29% 16.7% | +5.2 +3.8 +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 ▲1 Illinois 3 5.49% 5.1-5.9% 4.8% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 37% 22% 12.2% | -0.5 -1.4 -1.2 |
7 ▼1 Iowa St 2 5.01% 4.7-5.4% 6.4% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 72% 47% 25% 12.5% | -1.0 -2.3 -1.4 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.26% 3.9-4.6% 1.7% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 46% 23% 9.1% | +1.7 +0.6 +0.4 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.48% 3.2-3.8% 5.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 68% 42% 17% 7.9% | -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.45% 2.2-2.7% 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 4.9% | -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.61% 1.4-1.8% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 54% 22% 11% 4.5% | -- -0.5 -0.7 |
12 - Michigan St 3 1.42% 1.2-1.6% 2.1% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 49% 24% 9% 3.5% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.4 |
13 - Tennessee 6 0.85% 0.70-1.00% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.1 | ALIGNED
14 ▲1 Arkansas 5 0.83% 0.68-0.98% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 42% 12% 5% 2.1% | +1.2 -0.0 +0.6 |
15 ▼1 Nebraska 4 0.78% 0.64-0.93% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 46% 18% 7% 2.5% | -- +0.2 +0.1 |
16 ▲1 St John's 5 0.74% 0.60-0.88% 0.7% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 39% 14% 6% 2.3% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.7 |
17 ▼1 Louisville 6 0.70% 0.57-0.84% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 18% 6% 1.8% | -- -0.2 +0.1 |
18 - Vanderbilt 4 0.64% 0.51-0.78% 1.2% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 42% 14% 6% 2.2% | +1.4 +0.2 +0.7 |
19 ▲2 Texas Tech 5 0.62% 0.49-0.75% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 75% 43% 16% 6% 2.2% | -- -0.0 +0.2 |
20 - Virginia 3 0.55% 0.43-0.67% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 42% 17% 6% 2.0% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
21 ▼2 Kansas 4 0.52% 0.41-0.64% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 52% 16% 7% 1.9% | +1.5 -0.0 +1.2 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.28% 0.20-0.37% 0.2% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 74% 36% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.27% 0.19-0.36% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 65% 29% 11% 3% 0.9% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.21% 0.14-0.29% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 69% 20% 10% 3% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.7 |
25 ▲1 Utah St 7 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.2% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 52% 17% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▼1 St Mary's CA 7 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 58% 15% 5% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
27 - Villanova 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 54% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 ▲1 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 50% 13% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
29 ▲3 UCLA 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 50% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.3 +0.5 |
30 ▼2 Georgia 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 16% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
31 - Ohio St 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 44% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
32 ▲4 Iowa 9 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 56% 9% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
33 - Miami FL 7 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 59% 18% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 ▼4 North Carolina 6 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 19% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
35 - Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.1 |
36 ▼2 St Louis 9 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
37 ▲1 VCU 11 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 11% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
38 ▲1 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
39 ▲2 Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 35% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▼3 Texas A&M 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 42% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
41 ▲1 NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.04% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 48% 14% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
42 ▼2 TCU 9 0.02% 0.00-0.04% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 46% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 - UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 41% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 ▲3 High Point 13 0.02% 0.00-0.04% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.0 |
45 ▼1 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
46 ▲4 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▼2 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 25% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
48 ▼2 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 21 19:00 CET | BPI: Mar 21 19:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 21 19:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 21 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.1% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.5%)
▲ Houston: model 9.4% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.5%)
▲ Illinois: model 5.5% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.2%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.0% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.4%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)