24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - Arizona 1 21.16% 20.5-21.8% 19.2% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 51% 33.8% | -6.2 -6.7 -5.6 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.74% 18.1-19.4% 19.9% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 80% 66% 47% 28.5% | +2.3 +2.3 +1.0 |
3 - Michigan 1 10.95% 10.4-11.5% 17.1% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 72% 54% 36% 20.7% | +11.1 +11.1 +9.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.03% 8.6-9.5% 7.7% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 48% 30% 17.5% | -2.0 -0.0 -1.1 |
5 - Florida 1 7.83% 7.4-8.3% 7.6% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 73% 52% 29% 16.6% | +5.2 +3.8 +3.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 ▲1 Illinois 3 5.71% 5.3-6.1% 5.3% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 69% 37% 23% 12.7% | -0.7 -1.6 -1.5 |
7 ▼1 Iowa St 2 5.38% 5.0-5.8% 6.1% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 73% 48% 27% 13.4% | -1.4 -2.7 -1.8 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.38% 4.0-4.7% 1.9% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 71% 46% 23% 9.2% | +1.6 +0.5 +0.3 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.59% 3.3-3.9% 4.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 69% 42% 17% 8.0% | -0.6 -0.8 -1.4 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.70% 2.4-3.0% 1.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 61% 34% 12% 5.1% | -0.7 -1.1 -1.2 |
11 - Michigan St 3 1.71% 1.5-1.9% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 55% 27% 11% 4.0% | +1.3 -0.2 +0.1 | ALIGNED
12 - Alabama 4 1.35% 1.2-1.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 87% 52% 21% 10% 3.8% | -- -0.3 -0.5 | ALIGNED
13 ▲1 Nebraska 4 0.89% 0.74-1.05% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 50% 20% 7% 2.8% | -- +0.1 -0.0 | ALIGNED
14 ▼1 Tennessee 6 0.88% 0.73-1.04% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.8% | -- +0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
15 ▲1 St John's 5 0.78% 0.64-0.93% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 41% 14% 7% 2.5% | +1.2 +0.3 +0.7 |
16 ▼1 Arkansas 5 0.75% 0.61-0.89% 0.4% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 42% 12% 6% 2.2% | +1.2 +0.1 +0.7 |
17 ▲1 Vanderbilt 4 0.62% 0.50-0.75% 0.8% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 42% 13% 5% 2.1% | +1.4 +0.2 +0.8 |
18 ▲2 Virginia 3 0.47% 0.36-0.59% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 42% 17% 6% 2.0% | -- +0.6 +0.7 |
19 ▼2 Texas Tech 5 0.44% 0.34-0.55% 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 73% 39% 14% 4% 1.5% | -- +0.2 +0.4 |
20 ▼1 Louisville 6 0.41% 0.31-0.52% 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 36% 15% 5% 1.2% | -- +0.1 +0.4 |
21 - Kansas 4 0.41% 0.31-0.51% 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 51% 15% 6% 1.7% | +1.6 +0.1 +1.3 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.32% 0.23-0.41% 0.2% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 75% 37% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.24% 0.16-0.32% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 63% 28% 10% 3% 0.8% | +1.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.22% 0.15-0.30% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 70% 20% 10% 3% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.6 |
25 - Utah St 7 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 52% 17% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 - St Mary's CA 7 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 65% 16% 6% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 - Villanova 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 53% 11% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 - Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% -- 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 51% 14% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
29 ▲2 Iowa 9 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 55% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
30 - North Carolina 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% -- 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 62% 19% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
31 ▲3 UCLA 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 49% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.3 +0.6 |
32 ▲1 Ohio St 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 45% 9% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
33 ▼4 Georgia 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 16% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
34 ▼2 Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 58% 17% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
35 ▲1 Santa Clara 11 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
36 ▲2 St Louis 9 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
37 - South Florida 11 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 ▲2 Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 10% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
39 - VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 38% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▲4 NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 48% 13% 4% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
41 - UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 ▲1 TCU 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 47% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 ▼1 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
44 ▼9 Texas A&M 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 35% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.4 |
45 - Missouri 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 30% 6% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.3 |
46 - McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 27% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
47 - High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
48 - SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.2 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 23 07:30 CET | BPI: Mar 23 07:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 23 07:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 23 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.2% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.6%)
▲ Houston: model 9.0% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.1%)
▲ Illinois: model 5.7% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.5%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.4% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.8%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.6% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.4%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.7% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.2%)