24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - Arizona 1 20.92% 20.2-21.6% 17.4% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 81% 63% 51% 33.5% | -5.9 -6.4 -5.4 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.90% 18.3-19.6% 23.2% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 92% 78% 64% 47% 28.9% | +2.1 +2.1 +0.9 |
3 - Michigan 1 11.93% 11.4-12.5% 16.9% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 89% 72% 55% 38% 21.9% | +10.1 +10.1 +8.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.23% 8.8-9.7% 6.7% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 79% 49% 31% 18.1% | -2.2 -0.2 -1.3 |
5 - Florida 1 7.75% 7.3-8.2% 9.1% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 72% 52% 28% 16.4% | +5.3 +3.9 +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 5.38% 5.0-5.8% 4.5% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 37% 22% 12.2% | -0.4 -1.3 -1.1 |
7 - Iowa St 2 4.64% 4.3-5.0% 5.2% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 70% 46% 25% 12.1% | -0.6 -1.9 -1.1 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.26% 3.9-4.6% 1.8% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 46% 22% 8.9% | +1.7 +0.6 +0.4 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.30% 3.0-3.6% 4.6% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 69% 42% 17% 7.5% | -0.3 -0.5 -1.1 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.62% 2.4-2.9% 1.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 59% 34% 13% 5.2% | -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.49% 1.3-1.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 85% 52% 20% 10% 4.3% | -- -0.4 -0.6 |
12 - Michigan St 3 1.39% 1.2-1.6% 1.8% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 48% 23% 9% 3.2% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.4 |
13 - Arkansas 5 0.92% 0.77-1.08% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 80% 44% 13% 6% 2.4% | +1.1 -0.1 +0.5 | ALIGNED
14 ▲1 Nebraska 4 0.85% 0.70-1.00% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 48% 19% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.1 +0.0 | ALIGNED
15 ▼1 Tennessee 6 0.84% 0.69-0.99% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 71% 45% 20% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.3 +0.1 |
16 - Louisville 6 0.75% 0.61-0.89% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 19% 6% 2.0% | -- -0.2 +0.0 |
17 ▲1 St John's 5 0.72% 0.59-0.86% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 40% 13% 6% 2.3% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.7 |
18 ▼1 Vanderbilt 4 0.72% 0.58-0.86% 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 80% 45% 15% 6% 2.4% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.7 |
19 - Virginia 3 0.55% 0.43-0.68% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 85% 42% 17% 6% 1.9% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
20 ▲1 Kansas 4 0.49% 0.38-0.60% 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 83% 50% 15% 7% 1.9% | +1.5 +0.0 +1.2 |
21 ▼1 Texas Tech 5 0.46% 0.35-0.57% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 72% 40% 15% 5% 1.6% | -- +0.1 +0.4 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.30% 0.21-0.39% 0.4% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 70% 35% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.25% 0.17-0.33% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 68% 31% 11% 3% 0.9% | +1.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 - St Mary's CA 7 0.24% 0.16-0.32% 0.2% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 61% 19% 10% 3% 0.9% | -- -- +0.0 |
25 - Ohio St 8 0.15% 0.09-0.22% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 68% 15% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.3 |
26 - Georgia 8 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 16% 6% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 - North Carolina 6 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 64% 21% 5% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
28 - Utah St 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 46% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 - Clemson 9 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 61% 17% 8% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
30 - UCLA 7 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 50% 11% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.3 +0.5 |
31 - Kentucky 7 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 60% 18% 6% 1% 0.4% | -- +0.2 +0.8 |
32 - VCU 11 0.06% 0.02-0.10% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 28% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
33 ▲1 Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 58% 18% 6% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 ▲1 Iowa 9 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 54% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.3 |
35 ▲1 St Louis 9 0.04% 0.01-0.07% -- 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
36 ▼3 Texas A&M 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 50% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
37 - Villanova 8 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 39% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
38 - NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 40% 12% 4% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
39 - South Florida 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 30% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
40 - Santa Clara 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 39% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 - SMU 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 36% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 - Texas 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 32% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 ▲1 Missouri 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 29% 11% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
44 ▲1 UCF 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 10% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
45 ▲2 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 11% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
46 - Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 20% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▲2 Miami OH 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
48 - High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 20% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 19 02:00 CET | BPI: Mar 19 02:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 19 02:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 19 02:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 20.9% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.4%)
▲ Houston: model 9.2% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.3%)
▲ Illinois: model 5.4% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.1%)
▲ Iowa St: model 4.6% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.1%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.3% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.1%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.6% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)