24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.97% 21.3-22.7% 19.1% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.6% | -7.0 -7.5 -6.5 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 17.88% 17.3-18.5% 20.3% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 79% 64% 45% 27.3% | +3.1 +3.1 +1.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.58% 11.1-12.1% 18.3% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 89% 72% 55% 37% 21.5% | +10.4 +10.4 +9.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.17% 8.7-9.7% 6.3% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 49% 30% 18.0% | -2.2 -0.2 -1.3 |
5 - Florida 1 8.10% 7.6-8.6% 8.7% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 73% 53% 29% 17.1% | +4.9 +3.5 +2.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 4.86% 4.5-5.2% 4.5% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 85% 65% 34% 20% 11.3% | +0.1 -0.8 -0.6 | ALIGNED
7 - Iowa St 2 4.80% 4.4-5.1% 5.7% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 72% 47% 25% 12.5% | -0.8 -2.1 -1.2 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.50% 4.2-4.8% 1.9% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 71% 47% 23% 9.3% | +1.5 +0.4 +0.2 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.34% 3.0-3.6% 4.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 69% 42% 17% 7.6% | -0.3 -0.5 -1.2 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.66% 2.4-2.9% 1.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 5.2% | -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.48% 1.3-1.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 85% 53% 21% 10% 4.3% | -- -0.4 -0.6 | ALIGNED
12 - Michigan St 3 1.41% 1.2-1.6% 1.8% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 48% 24% 9% 3.3% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.4 |
13 ▲1 Tennessee 6 0.85% 0.70-1.01% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 68% 43% 20% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.1 | ALIGNED
14 ▲1 Nebraska 4 0.85% 0.70-1.01% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 48% 19% 7% 2.7% | -- +0.1 +0.0 | ALIGNED
15 ▼2 Arkansas 5 0.76% 0.62-0.91% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 73% 40% 11% 5% 1.9% | +1.2 +0.0 +0.7 |
16 ▲1 Vanderbilt 4 0.74% 0.60-0.88% 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 80% 44% 14% 6% 2.4% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.6 |
17 ▼1 Louisville 6 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 43% 19% 6% 2.0% | -- -0.2 +0.1 |
18 - St John's 5 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 75% 38% 13% 6% 2.2% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.7 |
19 - Virginia 3 0.61% 0.49-0.74% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 42% 18% 6% 2.1% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
20 - Kansas 4 0.53% 0.41-0.65% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 83% 51% 16% 7% 1.9% | +1.5 -0.0 +1.2 |
21 - Texas Tech 5 0.46% 0.35-0.57% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 72% 40% 14% 5% 1.5% | -- +0.1 +0.4 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.33% 0.24-0.42% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 74% 37% 11% 4% 1.2% | +1.7 -- +0.9 |
23 - BYU 6 0.30% 0.21-0.39% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 68% 31% 12% 3% 1.0% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 ▲7 Kentucky 7 0.20% 0.13-0.28% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 68% 20% 9% 3% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.7 |
25 ▼1 St Mary's CA 7 0.16% 0.10-0.23% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 61% 16% 6% 2% 0.7% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▲11 Villanova 8 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 63% 14% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 ▼1 Georgia 8 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 16% 6% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
28 ▼3 Ohio St 8 0.10% 0.05-0.16% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 48% 9% 4% 1% 0.4% | -- -- +0.4 |
29 ▼2 North Carolina 6 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 65% 22% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
30 ▼2 Utah St 7 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 50% 16% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
31 ▼2 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 52% 14% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
32 ▼2 UCLA 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 48% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.3 +0.6 |
33 - Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 55% 17% 6% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 - Iowa 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 52% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
35 - St Louis 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.2 +0.2 |
36 ▲4 Santa Clara 11 0.04% 0.01-0.07% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 32% 13% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
37 ▲2 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.00-0.06% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 - NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 50% 14% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
39 ▼7 VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 35% 10% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▲4 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 45% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 ▲6 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 25% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
42 ▲3 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
43 ▼1 Texas 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 32% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 ▲2 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
45 ▲3 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 20% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
46 ▼5 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 19 20:00 CET | BPI: Mar 19 20:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 19 20:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 19 02:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 22.0% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.5%)
▲ Houston: model 9.2% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.3%)
▲ Iowa St: model 4.8% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.2%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.3% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.2%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.7% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)