24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.01% 20.3-21.7% 19.4% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.0% | -6.0 -6.5 -5.5 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.63% 18.0-19.3% 19.2% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 79% 65% 47% 28.4% | +2.4 +2.4 +1.1 |
3 - Michigan 1 11.41% 10.9-11.9% 17.7% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 72% 54% 36% 20.8% | +10.6 +10.6 +9.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.42% 8.9-9.9% 7.0% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 48% 30% 17.7% | -2.4 -0.4 -1.5 |
5 - Florida 1 7.88% 7.4-8.3% 8.5% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 52% 29% 16.8% | +5.1 +3.7 +3.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 5.49% 5.1-5.9% 4.7% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 37% 22% 12.3% | -0.5 -1.4 -1.2 |
7 - Iowa St 2 4.98% 4.6-5.3% 5.9% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 72% 47% 25% 12.5% | -1.0 -2.3 -1.4 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.25% 3.9-4.6% 1.8% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 46% 23% 9.0% | +1.7 +0.6 +0.5 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.46% 3.2-3.8% 5.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 68% 42% 17% 7.9% | -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.44% 2.2-2.7% 1.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 4.9% | -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.58% 1.4-1.8% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 54% 22% 11% 4.4% | -- -0.5 -0.7 |
12 - Michigan St 3 1.44% 1.2-1.6% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 50% 25% 9% 3.5% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.3 |
13 - Tennessee 6 0.85% 0.70-1.00% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.1 | ALIGNED
14 ▲2 Arkansas 5 0.84% 0.69-0.99% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 42% 12% 5% 2.1% | +1.2 -0.0 +0.6 |
15 ▼1 Nebraska 4 0.79% 0.65-0.94% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 46% 18% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.1 |
16 ▲1 St John's 5 0.74% 0.60-0.88% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 39% 14% 6% 2.3% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.7 |
17 ▼2 Louisville 6 0.68% 0.55-0.82% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 18% 6% 1.7% | -- -0.2 +0.1 |
18 - Vanderbilt 4 0.63% 0.50-0.76% 1.2% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 42% 14% 6% 2.2% | +1.4 +0.2 +0.7 |
19 ▲2 Texas Tech 5 0.62% 0.49-0.75% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 75% 43% 16% 6% 2.2% | -- -0.0 +0.2 |
20 - Virginia 3 0.53% 0.41-0.65% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 42% 17% 6% 2.0% | -- +0.6 +0.7 |
21 ▼2 Kansas 4 0.48% 0.37-0.59% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 52% 16% 7% 1.9% | +1.5 +0.0 +1.2 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.29% 0.21-0.38% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 74% 36% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.26% 0.18-0.35% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 66% 30% 11% 3% 0.8% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.24% 0.16-0.32% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 69% 20% 10% 4% 1.1% | -- +0.1 +0.6 |
25 ▲1 Utah St 7 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 51% 17% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▼1 St Mary's CA 7 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 58% 15% 5% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
27 - Villanova 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 54% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 ▲1 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 50% 13% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
29 ▼1 Georgia 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 16% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
30 ▲2 Miami FL 7 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 59% 18% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
31 ▼1 North Carolina 6 0.06% 0.02-0.10% -- 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 19% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
32 ▼1 Ohio St 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 44% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
33 ▲3 Iowa 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 56% 9% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
34 ▼1 UCLA 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 50% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.4 +0.6 |
35 - Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.1 |
36 ▲4 VCU 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 11% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
37 ▲2 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 ▼4 St Louis 9 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
39 ▲3 Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 34% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▼3 Texas A&M 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 42% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
41 ▲3 NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.04% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 49% 14% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
42 ▼4 TCU 9 0.02% 0.00-0.04% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 46% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 ▼2 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 41% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 ▲3 High Point 13 0.02% 0.00-0.04% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.0 |
45 ▼2 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
46 ▼1 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▼1 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 25% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
48 - SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 21 22:00 CET | BPI: Mar 21 22:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 21 22:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 21 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.0% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.5%)
▲ Houston: model 9.4% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.5%)
▲ Illinois: model 5.5% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.2%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.0% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.4%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)