Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 21.96% 21.7-22.3% 24.0% 21.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 85% 72% 52% 34.8% | +2.0 -1.0 -2.4 | ALIGNED
2 Arizona 1 18.00% 17.7-18.3% 14.0% 12.8% 14.4% | 100% 96% 85% 70% 49% 30.7% | -4.0 -5.2 -3.6 | MODEL HIGHER
3 Michigan 1 15.33% 15.1-15.6% 20.0% 18.0% 19.5% | 100% 95% 84% 67% 45% 27.1% | +4.7 +2.7 +4.2 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Houston 2 9.81% 9.6-10.0% 7.0% 8.0% 7.8% | 100% 96% 81% 62% 34% 18.9% | -2.8 -1.8 -2.0 | MODEL HIGHER
5 Florida 2 9.51% 9.3-9.7% 13.0% 11.3% 9.1% | 100% 94% 79% 60% 33% 18.4% | +3.5 +1.8 -0.5 |
6 Illinois 2 6.47% 6.3-6.6% 5.0% 4.3% 4.6% | 100% 95% 78% 56% 28% 14.0% | -1.5 -2.2 -1.8 |
7 Connecticut 1 5.83% 5.7-6.0% 7.0% 5.7% 5.1% | 100% 95% 74% 49% 29% 13.4% | +1.2 -0.1 -0.8 | ALIGNED
8 Michigan St 2 2.34% 2.2-2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% | 100% 94% 68% 42% 17% 6.5% | -0.3 -0.0 -0.5 | ALIGNED
9 Purdue 3 1.89% 1.8-2.0% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% | 100% 92% 67% 33% 13% 5.4% | +1.1 +1.2 +0.8 |
10 Gonzaga 4 1.62% 1.5-1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% | 67% 58% 43% 16% 9% 4.1% | +0.4 +0.2 +0.2 | ALIGNED
11 Iowa St 3 1.58% 1.5-1.7% 4.0% 2.8% 3.7% | 100% 89% 62% 28% 11% 4.5% | +2.4 +1.2 +2.2 |
12 Alabama 4 0.68% 0.62-0.74% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 67% 58% 39% 13% 6% 2.1% | +0.3 +0.1 +0.8 |
13 Virginia 3 0.52% 0.47-0.58% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% | 100% 94% 56% 20% 6% 1.9% | +0.5 +0.5 +0.5 |
14 Kansas 4 0.49% 0.44-0.55% 3.0% 1.9% 1.9% | 66% 58% 39% 11% 5% 1.8% | +2.5 +1.4 +1.4 |
15 St John's 4 0.46% 0.41-0.51% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% | 67% 59% 38% 12% 5% 1.6% | +1.5 +0.5 +1.0 |
16 Nebraska 4 0.45% 0.40-0.49% 2.0% 1.0% 1.1% | 67% 58% 37% 12% 5% 1.5% | +1.6 +0.6 +0.6 |
17 Louisville 6 0.44% 0.40-0.49% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% | 100% 77% 48% 19% 6% 1.9% | +0.6 +0.2 +0.6 |
18 Tennessee 5 0.41% 0.36-0.45% 1.0% 0.7% 1.3% | 100% 84% 42% 11% 5% 1.5% | +0.6 +0.3 +0.9 |
19 Vanderbilt 5 0.39% 0.35-0.44% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% | 100% 85% 41% 12% 5% 1.4% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.5 |
20 Arkansas 5 0.36% 0.31-0.40% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 100% 81% 39% 12% 4% 1.3% | +1.6 +0.4 +1.2 |
21 Texas Tech 4 0.35% 0.31-0.39% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% | 67% 61% 40% 11% 4% 1.4% | +0.7 +1.7 +0.5 |
22 BYU 6 0.13% 0.11-0.16% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 66% 34% 10% 3% 0.7% | +0.9 +0.2 +0.4 |
23 Kentucky 7 0.11% 0.09-0.14% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% | 100% 62% 17% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.3 +0.8 |
24 North Carolina 6 0.11% 0.09-0.14% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% | 100% 65% 31% 9% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +1.6 +0.6 |
25 Auburn 10 0.10% 0.08-0.12% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 66% 51% 14% 7% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.1 |
26 St Mary's CA 8 0.10% 0.08-0.13% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 66% 47% 11% 5% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
27 Villanova 6 0.10% 0.08-0.13% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 59% 29% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
28 St Louis 8 0.05% 0.03-0.06% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 67% 46% 8% 4% 1% 0.2% | +0.9 +0.5 +0.5 |
29 UCLA 9 0.04% 0.02-0.05% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 54% 9% 4% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.3 |
30 Wisconsin 7 0.04% 0.02-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 100% 61% 16% 7% 2% 0.4% | +1.0 -- +0.7 |
31 Georgia 8 0.04% 0.03-0.06% -- -- 0.3% | 66% 42% 7% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
32 Clemson 8 0.04% 0.03-0.06% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 67% 44% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.3 |
33 Utah St 8 0.03% 0.02-0.05% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 41% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
34 Iowa 9 0.03% 0.01-0.04% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 46% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
35 SMU 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 67% 45% 9% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
36 Santa Clara 11 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 19% 9% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
37 VCU 11 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 18% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
38 Texas A&M 11 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 50% 23% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
39 Texas 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 46% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
40 NC State 8 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 67% 41% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
41 Indiana 11 0.01% 0.00-0.01% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 21% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
42 TCU 10 0.01% 0.00-0.02% -- -- 0.2% | 67% 44% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 Ohio St 10 0.01% 0.01-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 67% 46% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
44 South Florida 12 0.01% 0.00-0.01% -- -- 0.1% | 67% 28% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
45 UCF 9 0.01% 0.00-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 39% 5% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
46 Missouri 10 0.01% 0.00-0.01% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 66% 44% 8% 3% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
47 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.02% -- -- 0.1% | 67% 27% 7% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Model: 70% LightGBM + 30% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53651 | 50,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 07 10:10 | BPI: Mar 07 10:10 | Odds: Mar 07 10:10 | Injuries: Mar 06 09:33 | Kaggle: Mar 07 00:35
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Duke: model 22.0% vs sharp 19.5% (+2.4%)
▲ Arizona: model 18.0% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.6%)
▲ Houston: model 9.8% vs sharp 7.8% (+2.0%)
▲ Illinois: model 6.5% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.8%)