24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.74% 21.1-22.4% 20.0% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 35.1% | -6.7 -7.2 -6.2 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 16.70% 16.1-17.3% 17.2% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 78% 63% 44% 26.0% | +4.3 +4.3 +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.66% 11.1-12.2% 17.4% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 71% 54% 36% 21.1% | +10.3 +10.3 +8.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.66% 9.2-10.2% 7.0% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 75% 48% 30% 18.0% | -2.7 -0.7 -1.8 |
5 - Florida 1 7.97% 7.5-8.4% 9.2% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 53% 29% 16.5% | +5.0 +3.6 +2.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 ▲1 Iowa St 2 5.18% 4.8-5.5% 5.9% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 72% 48% 26% 13.1% | -1.2 -2.5 -1.6 |
7 ▼1 Illinois 3 4.99% 4.6-5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 85% 64% 34% 20% 11.3% | +0.0 -0.9 -0.7 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.38% 4.0-4.7% 2.1% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 71% 45% 23% 9.2% | +1.6 +0.5 +0.3 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.46% 3.2-3.8% 4.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 91% 69% 42% 17% 8.0% | -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.76% 2.5-3.0% 1.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 5.3% | -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.50% 1.3-1.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 53% 21% 10% 4.2% | -- -0.4 -0.6 |
12 - Michigan St 3 1.47% 1.3-1.7% 2.2% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 49% 24% 10% 3.6% | +1.5 +0.0 +0.3 |
13 ▲2 Nebraska 4 0.92% 0.77-1.08% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 48% 19% 7% 2.8% | -- +0.1 -0.1 | ALIGNED
14 - Tennessee 6 0.87% 0.72-1.03% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 68% 43% 19% 7% 2.5% | -- +0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
15 ▲2 Louisville 6 0.86% 0.71-1.01% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 20% 7% 2.2% | -- -0.4 -0.1 | ALIGNED
16 ▼3 Arkansas 5 0.84% 0.69-0.99% 0.7% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 73% 40% 12% 5% 2.1% | +1.2 -0.0 +0.6 |
17 ▲1 St John's 5 0.78% 0.64-0.92% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 76% 39% 13% 6% 2.4% | +1.2 +0.3 +0.7 |
18 ▼2 Vanderbilt 4 0.72% 0.58-0.86% 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 44% 14% 6% 2.3% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.7 |
19 ▲1 Kansas 4 0.56% 0.44-0.68% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 83% 52% 16% 7% 2.1% | +1.4 -0.1 +1.1 |
20 ▼1 Virginia 3 0.50% 0.39-0.62% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 41% 17% 6% 1.9% | -- +0.6 +0.7 |
21 - Texas Tech 5 0.46% 0.35-0.58% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 72% 40% 14% 5% 1.5% | -- +0.1 +0.4 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.30% 0.21-0.39% 0.2% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 73% 36% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.29% 0.21-0.38% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 66% 30% 11% 3% 0.9% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 ▲7 Kentucky 7 0.19% 0.12-0.26% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 68% 20% 9% 3% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.7 |
25 ▼1 St Mary's CA 7 0.17% 0.11-0.24% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 66% 17% 7% 2% 0.8% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 - Georgia 8 0.16% 0.10-0.23% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 57% 18% 7% 3% 0.8% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 ▲10 Villanova 8 0.14% 0.08-0.20% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 59% 13% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- -- +0.1 |
28 - North Carolina 6 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 63% 22% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
29 ▼2 Utah St 7 0.10% 0.05-0.16% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 50% 16% 6% 1% 0.4% | -- -- +0.2 |
30 ▼1 Clemson 9 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 54% 15% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
31 ▼6 Ohio St 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 49% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
32 ▼2 UCLA 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 46% 11% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.6 |
33 ▼1 Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 52% 16% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 ▲5 Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 32% 14% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.1 |
35 ▼1 St Louis 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 43% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
36 ▼1 Iowa 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 51% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.3 |
37 ▲6 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 - NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 50% 14% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
39 ▲2 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 48% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▼7 VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 11% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 ▲7 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.04% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 24% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
42 ▲3 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
43 ▲3 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 ▼4 Texas 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 34% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
45 ▲2 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
46 ▼4 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 20 07:00 CET | BPI: Mar 20 07:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 20 07:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 20 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.7% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.2%)
▲ Houston: model 9.7% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.8%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.2% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.6%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.8% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.2%)