24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.77% 21.1-22.4% 19.6% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.9% | -6.8 -7.3 -6.3 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 16.42% 15.8-17.1% 17.3% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 78% 63% 44% 25.7% | +4.6 +4.6 +3.3 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.97% 11.4-12.5% 18.2% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 89% 72% 55% 37% 21.6% | +10.0 +10.0 +8.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.54% 9.1-10.0% 7.0% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 48% 30% 17.9% | -2.5 -0.5 -1.6 |
5 - Florida 1 8.22% 7.8-8.7% 9.4% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 53% 29% 16.9% | +4.8 +3.4 +2.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 ▲1 Iowa St 2 4.97% 4.6-5.3% 5.8% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 72% 47% 25% 12.5% | -1.0 -2.3 -1.4 |
7 ▼1 Illinois 3 4.96% 4.6-5.3% 4.5% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 85% 65% 34% 20% 11.3% | +0.0 -0.9 -0.7 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.53% 4.2-4.9% 2.2% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 71% 45% 23% 9.4% | +1.5 +0.4 +0.2 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.43% 3.1-3.7% 4.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 91% 69% 42% 17% 7.8% | -0.4 -0.6 -1.3 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.79% 2.5-3.1% 1.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 13% 5.5% | -0.8 -1.2 -1.3 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.47% 1.3-1.7% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 85% 53% 21% 10% 4.3% | -- -0.4 -0.6 | ALIGNED
12 - Michigan St 3 1.42% 1.2-1.6% 1.9% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 49% 24% 9% 3.4% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.4 |
13 ▲1 Tennessee 6 0.89% 0.74-1.05% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 68% 43% 19% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
14 ▲1 Nebraska 4 0.89% 0.74-1.05% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 48% 19% 7% 2.8% | -- +0.1 -0.0 | ALIGNED
15 ▲1 Louisville 6 0.79% 0.65-0.94% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 20% 7% 2.3% | -- -0.3 -0.0 |
16 ▼3 Arkansas 5 0.78% 0.64-0.93% 0.4% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 73% 40% 12% 5% 2.0% | +1.2 +0.0 +0.6 |
17 ▲1 St John's 5 0.77% 0.63-0.91% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 75% 38% 13% 6% 2.2% | +1.2 +0.3 +0.7 |
18 ▼1 Vanderbilt 4 0.77% 0.63-0.91% 1.3% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 44% 14% 6% 2.5% | +1.2 +0.0 +0.6 |
19 - Virginia 3 0.60% 0.48-0.73% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 42% 18% 6% 2.0% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
20 - Kansas 4 0.53% 0.41-0.65% 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 83% 51% 16% 7% 2.0% | +1.5 -0.0 +1.2 |
21 - Texas Tech 5 0.47% 0.36-0.59% 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 72% 40% 14% 5% 1.5% | -- +0.1 +0.4 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.35% 0.26-0.45% 0.4% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 75% 37% 11% 4% 1.2% | +1.7 -- +0.9 |
23 - BYU 6 0.30% 0.21-0.39% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 68% 31% 11% 3% 1.0% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 ▲7 Kentucky 7 0.19% 0.12-0.26% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 68% 20% 9% 3% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.7 |
25 ▼1 St Mary's CA 7 0.16% 0.10-0.23% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 61% 16% 6% 2% 0.7% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▲11 Villanova 8 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 63% 14% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 ▼1 Georgia 8 0.11% 0.06-0.17% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 52% 17% 6% 2% 0.7% | -- -- +0.1 |
28 - Utah St 7 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 50% 16% 6% 1% 0.4% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 ▼2 North Carolina 6 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 65% 22% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
30 ▼5 Ohio St 8 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 48% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
31 ▼2 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% -- 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 52% 14% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
32 ▼2 UCLA 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 48% 11% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.6 |
33 - Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 54% 16% 6% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 - Iowa 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 52% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
35 - St Louis 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% -- 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 48% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.2 +0.2 |
36 ▲4 Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 32% 14% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.1 |
37 ▲2 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 ▲12 TCU 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
39 ▼7 VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 35% 10% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▼2 NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.04% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 50% 14% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
41 ▲3 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 46% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 ▲5 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 25% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
43 ▼7 Texas A&M 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 39% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
44 ▼2 Texas 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 32% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
45 - McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
46 ▼5 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 10% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▲1 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 19 23:30 CET | BPI: Mar 19 23:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 19 23:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 19 02:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.8% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.3%)
▲ Houston: model 9.5% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.6%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.0% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.4%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.4% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.8% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.3%)