Team                   Seed   Model%         90% CI Kalshi%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1 Duke                      1   20.77%     20.5-21.1%   24.0%   22.0%   20.0% |  100%   96%   85%   71%   50% 33.1% |   +3.2   +1.2   -0.8 | 
  2 Michigan                  1   16.15%     15.9-16.4%   20.0%   18.0%   19.8% |  100%   95%   83%   67%   45% 27.8% |   +3.9   +1.8   +3.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
  3 Arizona                   1   15.60%     15.3-15.9%   14.0%   11.2%   14.9% |  100%   96%   84%   68%   46% 27.7% |   -1.6   -4.4   -0.7 | MODEL HIGHER
  4 Houston                   2   10.89%     10.7-11.1%    7.0%    8.0%    7.2% |  100%   96%   80%   61%   35% 20.0% |   -3.9   -2.9   -3.7 | MODEL HIGHER
  5 Florida                   2    9.23%       9.0-9.4%   13.0%   11.3%    9.6% |  100%   94%   78%   57%   32% 17.6% |   +3.8   +2.1   +0.3 | MARKETS HIGHER
  6 Illinois                  2    6.99%       6.8-7.2%    5.0%    5.0%    4.6% |  100%   94%   78%   55%   29% 14.7% |   -2.0   -2.0   -2.3 | MODEL HIGHER
  7 Connecticut               1    5.97%       5.8-6.1%    7.0%    6.1%    4.8% |  100%   95%   75%   50%   30% 13.7% |   +1.0   +0.1   -1.2 | ALIGNED
  8 Michigan St               2    2.45%       2.3-2.6%    2.0%    1.9%    1.9% |  100%   94%   68%   41%   18%  6.8% |   -0.5   -0.6   -0.6 | 
  9 Purdue                    3    2.40%       2.3-2.5%    3.0%    3.1%    2.1% |  100%   92%   67%   35%   15%  6.2% |   +0.6   +0.7   -0.3 | ALIGNED
 10 Iowa St                   3    1.95%       1.8-2.0%    4.0%    2.8%    3.7% |  100%   89%   63%   30%   13%  5.3% |   +2.1   +0.9   +1.8 | 
 11 Gonzaga                   4    1.57%       1.5-1.7%    2.0%    2.2%    1.5% |   67%   59%   44%   16%   10%  4.1% |   +0.4   +0.6   -0.0 | ALIGNED
 12 Alabama                   4    0.66%     0.60-0.72%    1.0%    1.1%    1.1% |   66%   58%   39%   13%    6%  2.1% |   +0.3   +0.4   +0.5 | 
 13 Louisville                6    0.55%     0.49-0.60%    1.0%    0.7%    0.9% |  100%   77%   47%   20%    6%  2.0% |   +0.5   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 14 Virginia                  3    0.54%     0.48-0.59%    1.0%    1.0%    1.0% |  100%   94%   55%   21%    6%  1.9% |   +0.5   +0.5   +0.5 | 
 15 Vanderbilt                5    0.47%     0.42-0.53%    2.0%    0.7%    0.9% |  100%   85%   43%   12%    5%  1.6% |   +1.5   +0.2   +0.4 | 
 16 Tennessee                 5    0.47%     0.42-0.52%    1.0%    0.9%    1.2% |  100%   84%   40%   11%    5%  1.6% |   +0.5   +0.4   +0.7 | 
 17 Kansas                    4    0.45%     0.41-0.50%    3.0%    2.0%    2.2% |   67%   59%   39%   11%    5%  1.6% |   +2.5   +1.6   +1.8 | 
 18 St John's                 4    0.45%     0.41-0.50%    1.0%    1.2%    1.3% |   67%   59%   38%   12%    5%  1.7% |   +0.6   +0.8   +0.9 | 
 19 Texas Tech                4    0.44%     0.39-0.49%    1.0%    1.4%    0.8% |   67%   60%   39%   11%    5%  1.6% |   +0.6   +1.0   +0.4 | 
 20 Nebraska                  4    0.42%     0.37-0.46%    2.0%    1.5%    1.1% |   67%   57%   36%   11%    4%  1.4% |   +1.6   +1.1   +0.6 | 
 21 Arkansas                  5    0.35%     0.31-0.40%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   81%   38%   11%    4%  1.3% |   +1.7   +0.5   +1.1 | 
 22 BYU                       6    0.13%     0.11-0.16%    1.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   67%   34%   10%    3%  0.7% |   +0.9   +0.2   +0.4 | 
 23 St Mary's CA              8    0.12%     0.10-0.15%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   66%   47%   11%    5%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9     --   +0.3 | 
 24 North Carolina            6    0.12%     0.09-0.14%    1.0%    2.0%    1.1% |  100%   66%   32%   10%    3%  0.6% |   +0.9   +1.9   +0.9 | 
 25 Villanova                 6    0.11%     0.09-0.14%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   59%   30%    8%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9     --   +0.2 | 
 26 Auburn                   10    0.11%     0.09-0.14%    1.0%    0.2%    0.2% |   67%   51%   14%    7%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.1 | 
 27 Kentucky                  7    0.10%     0.07-0.12%    1.0%    0.7%    1.0% |  100%   62%   17%    8%    2%  0.4% |   +0.9   +0.6   +0.9 | 
 28 Wisconsin                 7    0.09%     0.07-0.11%    1.0%    --      0.8% |  100%   60%   17%    7%    2%  0.4% |   +0.9     --   +0.7 | 
 29 St Louis                  8    0.07%     0.05-0.09%    1.0%    0.5%    0.5% |   67%   46%    8%    3%    1%  0.3% |   +0.9   +0.4   +0.5 | 
 30 UCLA                      9    0.05%     0.03-0.06%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |  100%   54%   10%    4%    1%  0.3% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 31 Georgia                   8    0.05%     0.03-0.06%    --      --      0.3% |   66%   43%    8%    3%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 32 Utah St                   8    0.04%     0.03-0.06%    --      --      0.3% |   66%   43%    9%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 33 Clemson                   8    0.03%     0.02-0.05%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |   67%   44%    7%    3%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0   +0.2   +0.4 | 
 34 Santa Clara              11    0.03%     0.01-0.04%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   19%    9%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.1 | 
 35 Texas                    10    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   47%   10%    4%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 36 NC State                  8    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    0.6%    0.4% |   67%   42%    6%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0   +0.6   +0.4 | 
 37 Texas A&M                11    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   50%   23%   11%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 38 Ohio St                  10    0.02%     0.01-0.04%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   67%   47%    9%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 39 SMU                      10    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.3% |   67%   45%   10%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 40 Indiana                  11    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   21%    9%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 41 Iowa                      9    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   43%    7%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.5 | 
 42 South Florida            12    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    --      --      0.1% |   57%   24%    7%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 43 UCF                       9    0.01%     0.01-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   38%    5%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 44 VCU                      11    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   18%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 45 Missouri                 10    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   45%    9%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 46 UC Irvine                14    0.00%     0.00-0.01%    --      --      0.2% |   67%   22%    4%    0%    0%  0.0% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
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Model: 70% LightGBM + 30% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53618  |  50,000 bracket sims
Features: 45 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 06 03:54 | BPI: Mar 06 03:55 | Odds: Mar 06 03:55 | Injuries: Mar 05 22:21 | Kaggle: Mar 06 00:36

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Houston: model 10.9% vs sharp 7.2% (+3.7%)
  ▲ Illinois: model 7.0% vs sharp 4.6% (+2.3%)
  ▲ Connecticut: model 6.0% vs sharp 4.8% (+1.2%)