24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 20.85% 20.2-21.5% 19.2% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.0% | -5.8 -6.3 -5.3 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.85% 18.2-19.5% 19.6% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 80% 66% 47% 28.8% | +2.1 +2.1 +0.9 |
3 - Michigan 1 11.85% 11.3-12.4% 17.7% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 72% 56% 37% 21.6% | +10.2 +10.2 +8.7 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.40% 8.9-9.9% 8.0% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 49% 30% 17.8% | -2.4 -0.4 -1.5 |
5 - Florida 1 7.85% 7.4-8.3% 7.3% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 51% 28% 16.6% | +5.2 +3.8 +3.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Iowa St 2 5.26% 4.9-5.6% 6.3% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 73% 48% 26% 13.1% | -1.3 -2.6 -1.7 |
7 - Illinois 3 5.19% 4.8-5.6% 4.9% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 69% 36% 21% 11.9% | -0.2 -1.1 -0.9 |
8 - Connecticut 2 3.99% 3.7-4.3% 1.8% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 44% 22% 8.6% | +2.0 +0.9 +0.7 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.56% 3.3-3.9% 5.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 68% 42% 17% 8.1% | -0.6 -0.8 -1.4 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.55% 2.3-2.8% 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 5.0% | -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 |
11 - Michigan St 3 1.73% 1.5-1.9% 1.9% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 55% 27% 11% 4.1% | +1.3 -0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
12 - Alabama 4 1.25% 1.1-1.4% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 52% 20% 9% 3.6% | -- -0.2 -0.4 | ALIGNED
13 - Tennessee 6 0.90% 0.75-1.06% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.8% | -- +0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
14 ▲1 Arkansas 5 0.87% 0.72-1.02% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 44% 13% 6% 2.3% | +1.1 -0.1 +0.6 |
15 ▼1 Nebraska 4 0.86% 0.71-1.01% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 48% 19% 7% 2.7% | -- +0.1 +0.0 | ALIGNED
16 - St John's 5 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 0.5% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 41% 14% 6% 2.3% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.7 |
17 - Vanderbilt 4 0.59% 0.47-0.72% 0.9% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 40% 13% 5% 2.1% | +1.4 +0.2 +0.8 |
18 - Texas Tech 5 0.54% 0.42-0.66% 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 74% 41% 16% 5% 1.8% | -- +0.1 +0.3 |
19 ▲1 Virginia 3 0.51% 0.39-0.63% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 42% 17% 6% 2.0% | -- +0.6 +0.7 |
20 ▼1 Louisville 6 0.49% 0.38-0.61% 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 36% 17% 5% 1.4% | -- +0.0 +0.3 |
21 - Kansas 4 0.39% 0.29-0.49% 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 52% 15% 6% 1.7% | +1.6 +0.1 +1.3 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.30% 0.21-0.39% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 75% 37% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.25% 0.17-0.34% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 63% 29% 10% 3% 0.8% | +1.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.22% 0.15-0.30% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 68% 19% 9% 3% 0.9% | -- +0.1 +0.6 |
25 ▲1 St Mary's CA 7 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 65% 16% 6% 2% 0.7% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▼1 Utah St 7 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 53% 18% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 - Villanova 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 53% 11% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 ▲1 Georgia 8 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 52% 16% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 ▼1 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 52% 14% 7% 2% 0.4% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
30 ▲1 Iowa 9 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.2% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 55% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
31 ▼1 North Carolina 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 19% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
32 - Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 58% 18% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
33 - Ohio St 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 45% 9% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 - UCLA 8 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 48% 12% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.4 +0.6 |
35 ▲1 Santa Clara 11 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
36 ▲2 St Louis 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 48% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
37 - South Florida 11 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 ▲2 Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 10% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
39 ▲2 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▲2 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
41 ▼2 VCU 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 11% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 ▼7 Texas A&M 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 35% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.4 |
43 ▲5 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 ▼1 TCU 9 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 47% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
45 - Missouri 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 32% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.3 |
46 - McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 26% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
47 - High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
48 ▼4 NC State 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 47% 13% 4% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 23 04:00 CET | BPI: Mar 23 04:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 23 04:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 23 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 20.8% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.3%)
▲ Houston: model 9.4% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.5%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.3% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.7%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.6% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.4%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.5% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.0%)