24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 20.91% 20.2-21.6% 18.3% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 81% 64% 51% 33.6% | -5.9 -6.4 -5.4 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.90% 18.3-19.6% 23.2% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 92% 78% 65% 47% 28.8% | +2.1 +2.1 +0.9 |
3 - Michigan 1 11.98% 11.5-12.5% 17.5% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 89% 72% 55% 38% 21.9% | +10.0 +10.0 +8.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.21% 8.7-9.7% 6.3% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 79% 49% 31% 18.0% | -2.2 -0.2 -1.3 |
5 - Florida 1 7.74% 7.3-8.2% 8.6% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 72% 52% 29% 16.4% | +5.3 +3.9 +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 5.39% 5.0-5.8% 4.3% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 37% 22% 12.3% | -0.4 -1.3 -1.1 |
7 - Iowa St 2 4.64% 4.3-5.0% 5.4% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 70% 46% 24% 12.1% | -0.6 -1.9 -1.1 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.26% 3.9-4.6% 1.9% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 46% 22% 8.8% | +1.7 +0.6 +0.4 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.30% 3.0-3.6% 4.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 69% 42% 17% 7.5% | -0.3 -0.5 -1.1 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.63% 2.4-2.9% 1.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 5.2% | -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.49% 1.3-1.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 85% 53% 20% 10% 4.3% | -- -0.4 -0.6 |
12 - Michigan St 3 1.38% 1.2-1.6% 1.6% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 47% 23% 9% 3.1% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.4 |
13 - Arkansas 5 0.88% 0.73-1.04% 0.6% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 80% 44% 13% 6% 2.3% | +1.1 -0.1 +0.5 |
14 ▲1 Tennessee 6 0.84% 0.69-0.99% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 71% 45% 20% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.3 +0.1 |
15 ▼1 Nebraska 4 0.84% 0.69-0.99% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 87% 47% 19% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.0 |
16 - Louisville 6 0.80% 0.65-0.95% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 43% 19% 6% 2.1% | -- -0.3 -0.0 |
17 - Vanderbilt 4 0.74% 0.60-0.88% 0.9% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 80% 45% 15% 6% 2.5% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.6 |
18 - St John's 5 0.69% 0.56-0.83% 0.5% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 40% 13% 6% 2.3% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.8 |
19 - Virginia 3 0.54% 0.42-0.67% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 85% 42% 17% 6% 1.9% | -- +0.6 +0.7 |
20 ▲1 Kansas 4 0.48% 0.37-0.59% 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 83% 50% 15% 6% 1.9% | +1.5 +0.0 +1.2 |
21 ▼1 Texas Tech 5 0.47% 0.36-0.58% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 72% 41% 15% 5% 1.6% | -- +0.1 +0.4 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.30% 0.21-0.39% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 70% 35% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.25% 0.17-0.33% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 67% 31% 11% 3% 0.9% | +1.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 - St Mary's CA 7 0.24% 0.16-0.32% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 61% 19% 10% 3% 0.9% | -- -- +0.0 |
25 - Ohio St 8 0.15% 0.09-0.22% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 68% 15% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.3 |
26 - Georgia 8 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 16% 6% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 - North Carolina 6 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 63% 20% 5% 1% 0.4% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
28 - Utah St 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 47% 10% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 - Clemson 9 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 61% 16% 8% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
30 - UCLA 7 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 49% 11% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.3 +0.5 |
31 - Kentucky 7 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 58% 18% 6% 1% 0.4% | -- +0.2 +0.8 |
32 ▲4 VCU 11 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 28% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
33 - Texas A&M 10 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 51% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
34 ▼2 Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 58% 18% 6% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
35 ▼1 Iowa 9 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 53% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.3 |
36 ▼1 St Louis 9 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
37 - Villanova 8 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 39% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
38 ▲2 NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 42% 12% 4% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
39 - South Florida 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 30% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
40 ▼2 Santa Clara 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 39% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 - SMU 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 - Texas 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 33% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 - TCU 9 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 32% 6% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 - Missouri 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 29% 11% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
45 - UCF 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
46 - Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 20% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 - McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
48 - High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 20% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
49 - Miami OH 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 18 03:30 CET | BPI: Mar 18 03:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 18 03:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 18 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 20.9% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.4%)
▲ Houston: model 9.2% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.3%)
▲ Illinois: model 5.4% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.1%)
▲ Iowa St: model 4.6% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.1%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.3% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.1%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.6% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)