24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.70% 21.0-22.4% 19.2% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.8% | -6.7 -7.2 -6.2 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.04% 17.4-18.7% 20.1% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 79% 65% 46% 27.8% | +3.0 +3.0 +1.7 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.94% 11.4-12.5% 17.2% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 73% 55% 37% 21.6% | +10.1 +10.1 +8.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.27% 8.8-9.8% 8.3% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 48% 30% 17.7% | -2.3 -0.3 -1.4 |
5 - Florida 1 8.19% 7.7-8.6% 8.6% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 52% 29% 17.2% | +4.8 +3.4 +2.7 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 ▲1 Iowa St 2 5.17% 4.8-5.5% 5.7% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 73% 48% 26% 12.7% | -1.2 -2.5 -1.6 |
7 ▼1 Illinois 3 5.12% 4.8-5.5% 4.6% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 36% 21% 11.6% | -0.1 -1.0 -0.9 |
8 - Connecticut 2 3.94% 3.6-4.3% 1.8% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 44% 22% 8.6% | +2.1 +1.0 +0.8 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.47% 3.2-3.8% 5.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 69% 43% 17% 7.9% | -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.34% 2.1-2.6% 0.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 59% 33% 12% 4.7% | -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 |
11 ▲1 Michigan St 3 1.71% 1.5-1.9% 1.9% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 55% 27% 11% 4.1% | +1.3 -0.2 +0.1 | ALIGNED
12 ▼1 Alabama 4 1.51% 1.3-1.7% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 54% 21% 10% 4.3% | -- -0.4 -0.6 |
13 - Tennessee 6 0.86% 0.71-1.01% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
14 ▲1 Nebraska 4 0.78% 0.64-0.93% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 46% 18% 7% 2.5% | -- +0.2 +0.1 |
15 ▼1 Arkansas 5 0.78% 0.64-0.93% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 42% 12% 6% 2.2% | +1.2 +0.0 +0.6 |
16 ▲3 St John's 5 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 0.5% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 39% 13% 6% 2.2% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.7 |
17 ▲4 Texas Tech 5 0.61% 0.48-0.74% 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 74% 42% 16% 6% 2.1% | -- -0.0 +0.2 |
18 ▼2 Vanderbilt 4 0.61% 0.49-0.74% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 43% 14% 6% 2.2% | +1.4 +0.2 +0.8 |
19 ▼2 Louisville 6 0.57% 0.45-0.70% 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 36% 17% 5% 1.7% | -- -0.1 +0.2 |
20 - Virginia 3 0.44% 0.34-0.55% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 41% 16% 6% 1.9% | -- +0.7 +0.8 |
21 ▼3 Kansas 4 0.44% 0.33-0.55% 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 52% 16% 7% 1.8% | +1.6 +0.1 +1.3 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.30% 0.21-0.39% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 75% 37% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.27% 0.19-0.36% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 64% 30% 11% 3% 0.9% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.21% 0.14-0.29% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 69% 20% 10% 4% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.7 |
25 ▲1 Utah St 7 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 51% 17% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▲1 St Mary's CA 7 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 55% 13% 5% 1% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
27 ▼2 Villanova 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 55% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 ▲1 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 50% 13% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
29 ▼1 Georgia 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 15% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
30 - North Carolina 6 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 58% 18% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
31 ▲1 Iowa 9 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 56% 9% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
32 ▲4 Miami FL 7 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 59% 18% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
33 ▼2 Ohio St 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 44% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 ▲1 UCLA 8 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 50% 12% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.4 +0.6 |
35 ▲2 Texas A&M 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 45% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
36 ▼3 Santa Clara 11 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
37 ▲1 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 ▼4 St Louis 9 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
39 - VCU 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 - Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 36% 10% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 - UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 41% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 ▲1 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
43 ▲5 TCU 9 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 45% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 - NC State 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 49% 14% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
45 ▲5 Missouri 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 31% 6% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.3 |
46 ▲1 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 26% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
47 ▼5 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
48 ▼2 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 22 03:30 CET | BPI: Mar 22 03:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 22 03:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 22 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.7% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.2%)
▲ Houston: model 9.3% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.4%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.2% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.6%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)