Team                   Seed   Model%         90% CI Kalshi%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1 Duke                      1   22.55%     22.2-22.9%   23.0%   21.0%   19.5% |  100%   96%   86%   72%   53% 35.6% |   +0.5   -1.6   -3.0 | 
  2 Arizona                   1   17.78%     17.5-18.1%   14.0%   11.1%   14.4% |  100%   97%   85%   69%   48% 30.2% |   -3.8   -6.7   -3.4 | MODEL HIGHER
  3 Michigan                  1   15.86%     15.6-16.1%   20.0%   18.0%   19.5% |  100%   96%   84%   68%   47% 28.0% |   +4.1   +2.1   +3.7 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4 Florida                   2    9.84%      9.6-10.1%   13.0%   11.3%    9.1% |  100%   95%   79%   59%   33% 18.6% |   +3.2   +1.5   -0.8 | 
  5 Houston                   2    8.87%       8.7-9.1%    7.0%    8.0%    7.8% |  100%   96%   80%   60%   32% 17.3% |   -1.9   -0.9   -1.1 | 
  6 Illinois                  2    6.30%       6.1-6.5%    5.0%    4.3%    4.6% |  100%   95%   78%   55%   28% 13.6% |   -1.3   -2.0   -1.7 | 
  7 Connecticut               1    5.54%       5.4-5.7%    7.0%    5.6%    5.1% |  100%   95%   75%   49%   29% 13.1% |   +1.5   +0.1   -0.5 | ALIGNED
  8 Michigan St               2    2.29%       2.2-2.4%    2.0%    2.3%    1.9% |  100%   94%   69%   42%   17%  6.4% |   -0.3   +0.0   -0.4 | ALIGNED
  9 Purdue                    3    1.83%       1.7-1.9%    3.0%    3.1%    2.7% |  100%   92%   66%   34%   13%  5.3% |   +1.2   +1.3   +0.9 | 
 10 Iowa St                   3    1.70%       1.6-1.8%    4.0%    2.8%    3.7% |  100%   90%   62%   29%   12%  4.8% |   +2.3   +1.1   +2.0 | 
 11 Gonzaga                   4    1.61%       1.5-1.7%    2.0%    1.8%    1.8% |   67%   59%   43%   17%   10%  4.2% |   +0.4   +0.2   +0.2 | ALIGNED
 12 Kansas                    4    0.60%     0.54-0.66%    3.0%    1.9%    1.9% |   67%   59%   39%   12%    6%  1.9% |   +2.4   +1.3   +1.3 | 
 13 Alabama                   4    0.57%     0.51-0.62%    1.0%    0.8%    1.5% |   66%   57%   38%   12%    6%  2.0% |   +0.4   +0.2   +0.9 | 
 14 Virginia                  3    0.55%     0.50-0.61%    1.0%    1.0%    1.0% |  100%   94%   56%   21%    7%  2.0% |   +0.5   +0.5   +0.5 | 
 15 Tennessee                 5    0.52%     0.47-0.57%    1.0%    0.6%    1.3% |  100%   84%   43%   12%    6%  1.8% |   +0.5   +0.1   +0.8 | 
 16 Nebraska                  4    0.47%     0.42-0.52%    2.0%    1.0%    1.1% |   67%   59%   37%   12%    5%  1.6% |   +1.5   +0.5   +0.6 | 
 17 Louisville                6    0.44%     0.40-0.49%    1.0%    0.6%    1.0% |  100%   76%   47%   19%    6%  1.8% |   +0.6   +0.2   +0.6 | 
 18 St John's                 4    0.43%     0.38-0.48%    2.0%    1.0%    1.5% |   67%   59%   37%   11%    5%  1.6% |   +1.6   +0.6   +1.0 | 
 19 Texas Tech                4    0.42%     0.37-0.47%    1.0%    2.5%    0.8% |   66%   60%   38%   11%    5%  1.5% |   +0.6   +2.1   +0.4 | 
 20 Vanderbilt                5    0.41%     0.37-0.46%    2.0%    0.5%    0.9% |  100%   84%   41%   12%    5%  1.5% |   +1.6   +0.1   +0.5 | 
 21 Arkansas                  5    0.35%     0.30-0.39%    2.0%    0.8%    1.5% |  100%   82%   41%   11%    4%  1.2% |   +1.7   +0.5   +1.2 | 
 22 BYU                       6    0.14%     0.12-0.17%    1.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   68%   35%   11%    3%  0.7% |   +0.9   +0.2   +0.4 | 
 23 North Carolina            6    0.12%     0.10-0.15%    1.0%    1.7%    0.7% |  100%   65%   32%    9%    2%  0.6% |   +0.9   +1.6   +0.6 | 
 24 St Mary's CA              8    0.10%     0.08-0.12%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   47%   10%    5%    2%  0.4% |   +0.9     --   +0.3 | 
 25 Villanova                 6    0.09%     0.07-0.12%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   61%   30%    9%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9     --   +0.3 | 
 26 Kentucky                  7    0.08%     0.06-0.10%    1.0%    0.4%    1.0% |  100%   62%   17%    8%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9   +0.3   +0.9 | 
 27 Auburn                   10    0.07%     0.05-0.09%    1.0%    0.2%    0.2% |   66%   49%   13%    6%    1%  0.4% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.1 | 
 28 UCLA                      9    0.06%     0.04-0.07%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |  100%   51%    9%    4%    1%  0.2% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 29 Wisconsin                 7    0.06%     0.04-0.08%    1.0%    --      0.8% |  100%   60%   16%    7%    2%  0.4% |   +0.9     --   +0.7 | 
 30 Clemson                   8    0.05%     0.03-0.06%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |   67%   43%    7%    3%    1%  0.2% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 31 Georgia                   8    0.04%     0.02-0.05%    --      --      0.3% |   67%   43%    7%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 32 Iowa                      9    0.04%     0.02-0.05%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   46%    8%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.5 | 
 33 St Louis                  8    0.03%     0.01-0.04%    1.0%    0.5%    0.5% |   67%   46%    8%    3%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0   +0.5   +0.5 | 
 34 Ohio St                  10    0.02%     0.01-0.04%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   67%   47%   10%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 35 Texas                    10    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   47%   11%    4%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 36 Missouri                 10    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   45%    8%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 37 NC State                  8    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    0.6%    0.4% |   66%   41%    6%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0   +0.6   +0.4 | 
 38 Utah St                   8    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    --      --      0.3% |   67%   44%    9%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 39 Texas A&M                11    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   50%   23%   11%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 40 Santa Clara              11    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   19%    9%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 41 SMU                      10    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.3% |   66%   45%    9%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 42 TCU                      10    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    --      --      0.2% |   67%   44%    8%    3%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 43 VCU                      11    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   17%    8%    2%    0%  0.0% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 44 UCF                       9    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   38%    5%    1%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 45 South Florida            12    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    --      --      0.1% |   67%   27%    8%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 46 Akron                    12    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    --      --      0.1% |   67%   27%    6%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53841  |  50,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 07 13:47 | BPI: Mar 07 13:48 | Odds: Mar 07 13:48 | Injuries: Mar 06 09:33 | Kaggle: Mar 07 00:35

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Duke: model 22.6% vs sharp 19.5% (+3.0%)
  ▲ Arizona: model 17.8% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.4%)
  ▲ Houston: model 8.9% vs sharp 7.8% (+1.1%)
  ▲ Illinois: model 6.3% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.7%)