24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.47% 20.8-22.2% 21.6% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.7% | -6.5 -7.0 -6.0 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 17.09% 16.5-17.7% 17.1% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 78% 63% 44% 26.6% | +3.9 +3.9 +2.7 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.73% 11.2-12.3% 16.3% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 73% 55% 37% 21.2% | +10.3 +10.3 +8.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.67% 9.2-10.2% 7.4% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 48% 30% 18.1% | -2.7 -0.7 -1.8 |
5 - Florida 1 7.92% 7.5-8.4% 8.8% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 52% 29% 16.5% | +5.1 +3.7 +2.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 5.30% 4.9-5.7% 4.8% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 86% 66% 35% 21% 11.9% | -0.3 -1.2 -1.1 |
7 - Iowa St 2 5.10% 4.7-5.5% 6.0% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 72% 47% 25% 12.7% | -1.1 -2.4 -1.5 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.26% 3.9-4.6% 1.7% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 71% 45% 23% 9.1% | +1.7 +0.6 +0.4 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.63% 3.3-3.9% 4.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 68% 42% 17% 8.2% | -0.6 -0.8 -1.5 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.63% 2.4-2.9% 1.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 61% 34% 12% 5.1% | -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 |
11 ▲1 Michigan St 3 1.47% 1.3-1.7% 1.9% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 49% 24% 10% 3.6% | +1.5 +0.0 +0.3 |
12 ▼1 Alabama 4 1.40% 1.2-1.6% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 53% 21% 10% 3.9% | -- -0.3 -0.5 | ALIGNED
13 ▲1 Tennessee 6 0.94% 0.79-1.10% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.7% | -- +0.2 -0.0 | ALIGNED
14 ▼1 Nebraska 4 0.87% 0.72-1.03% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 47% 18% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.1 -0.0 | ALIGNED
15 ▲2 Arkansas 5 0.77% 0.63-0.91% 0.6% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 40% 12% 5% 2.1% | +1.2 +0.0 +0.7 |
16 ▲2 St John's 5 0.75% 0.61-0.90% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 77% 40% 14% 6% 2.4% | +1.2 +0.3 +0.7 |
17 ▼2 Louisville 6 0.74% 0.60-0.88% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 20% 6% 2.0% | -- -0.2 +0.0 |
18 ▼2 Vanderbilt 4 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 44% 14% 6% 2.4% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.6 |
19 ▲1 Kansas 4 0.67% 0.54-0.80% 0.6% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 55% 18% 8% 2.3% | +1.3 -0.2 +1.0 |
20 ▼1 Virginia 3 0.57% 0.45-0.70% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 42% 18% 6% 2.1% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
21 - Texas Tech 5 0.51% 0.39-0.63% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 73% 41% 16% 5% 1.8% | -- +0.1 +0.3 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.28% 0.20-0.37% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 73% 33% 9% 4% 1.0% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.24% 0.16-0.32% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 63% 28% 10% 2% 0.8% | +1.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.20% 0.13-0.28% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 68% 20% 10% 3% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.7 |
25 - St Mary's CA 7 0.14% 0.08-0.20% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 58% 15% 5% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 - Villanova 8 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 59% 13% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 ▲2 Utah St 7 0.10% 0.05-0.16% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 49% 16% 6% 1% 0.4% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 ▲2 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 53% 14% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
29 ▼1 North Carolina 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 20% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
30 ▼3 Georgia 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 50% 15% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
31 - Ohio St 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 49% 10% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
32 ▲3 Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 54% 16% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
33 ▼1 UCLA 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 47% 11% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.4 +0.6 |
34 ▲2 St Louis 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 50% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.2 +0.2 |
35 ▼2 Santa Clara 11 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
36 ▼2 Iowa 9 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 51% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.4 |
37 ▲10 Texas A&M 10 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 42% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
38 ▼1 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
39 - VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▲3 Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 10% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 - Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 23% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
42 ▼4 NC State 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 51% 15% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
43 ▲3 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 - TCU 9 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 41% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
45 ▲5 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
46 ▼4 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 27% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
47 ▼2 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
48 ▼8 UCF 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 46% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 21 00:30 CET | BPI: Mar 21 00:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 21 00:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 20 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.5% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.0%)
▲ Houston: model 9.7% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.8%)
▲ Illinois: model 5.3% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.1%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.1% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.5%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.6% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.5%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.6% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)