24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - Duke 1 20.24% 19.6-20.9% 22.2% 23.0% 21.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 85% 71% 52% 33.1% | +2.8 +0.8 -0.7 |
2 - Arizona 1 18.37% 17.7-19.0% 18.0% 14.0% 10.2% 14.4% | 100% 96% 86% 70% 50% 31.7% | -4.4 -8.2 -4.0 | MODEL HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 17.03% 16.4-17.6% 22.1% 21.0% 19.0% 19.5% | 100% 95% 84% 69% 49% 29.8% | +4.0 +2.0 +2.5 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Florida 1 11.71% 11.2-12.2% 12.8% 15.0% 12.6% 10.4% | 100% 95% 80% 61% 40% 22.6% | +3.3 +0.9 -1.3 |
5 - Houston 2 9.32% 8.8-9.8% 5.7% 7.0% 8.0% 7.2% | 100% 95% 82% 63% 33% 17.7% | -2.3 -1.3 -2.1 |
6 - Illinois 2 6.16% 5.8-6.6% 5.1% 5.0% 4.1% 4.6% | 100% 94% 77% 55% 28% 13.9% | -1.2 -2.1 -1.5 |
7 - Connecticut 2 4.82% 4.5-5.2% 2.0% 7.0% 7.8% 4.5% | 100% 95% 76% 53% 25% 11.6% | +2.2 +3.0 -0.3 |
8 ▲1 Iowa St 3 2.31% 2.1-2.6% 2.3% 4.0% 2.6% 3.7% | 100% 92% 64% 34% 15% 6.2% | +1.7 +0.3 +1.4 |
9 ▼1 Michigan St 2 2.27% 2.0-2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% | 100% 94% 70% 44% 17% 6.5% | -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 | ALIGNED
10 - Gonzaga 4 1.32% 1.1-1.5% 0.8% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% | 50% 44% 35% 12% 7% 3.0% | +0.7 +0.4 +0.5 |
11 - Purdue 4 1.04% 0.9-1.2% 1.1% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% | 50% 44% 38% 13% 7% 2.8% | +2.0 +2.1 +1.6 |
12 ▲5 Alabama 3 0.77% 0.63-0.91% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 1.4% | 100% 89% 56% 27% 8% 2.7% | +0.2 -0.1 +0.7 |
13 ▲3 Nebraska 4 0.46% 0.35-0.57% 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% | 50% 43% 33% 11% 5% 1.4% | +0.5 +0.4 +0.6 |
14 ▼1 Tennessee 6 0.46% 0.35-0.58% 0.4% 1.0% 1.7% 1.3% | 65% 49% 35% 15% 5% 1.7% | +0.5 +1.2 +0.8 |
15 ▼1 St John's 4 0.46% 0.35-0.57% 0.2% 2.0% 0.9% 1.4% | 50% 44% 34% 10% 4% 1.4% | +1.5 +0.4 +1.0 |
16 ▼4 Louisville 6 0.45% 0.34-0.56% 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% | 67% 51% 37% 16% 5% 1.6% | +0.6 +0.3 +0.6 |
17 ▲3 Virginia 4 0.41% 0.31-0.51% 0.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% | 50% 45% 35% 10% 4% 1.3% | +0.6 +0.7 +0.6 |
18 ▲1 Kansas 4 0.40% 0.30-0.51% 0.4% 3.0% 1.5% 1.9% | 49% 43% 33% 9% 5% 1.3% | +2.6 +1.1 +1.5 |
19 ▼4 Vanderbilt 4 0.34% 0.25-0.44% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% | 51% 46% 37% 10% 4% 1.3% | +0.7 +0.2 +0.6 |
20 ▲1 Arkansas 5 0.33% 0.24-0.43% 0.4% 2.0% 0.9% 1.7% | 100% 84% 42% 11% 4% 1.3% | +1.7 +0.6 +1.4 |
21 ▼3 Texas Tech 4 0.19% 0.12-0.26% 0.5% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% | 50% 44% 35% 9% 4% 1.0% | +0.8 +1.2 +0.6 |
22 - Villanova 6 0.15% 0.09-0.22% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 67% 41% 26% 8% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
23 ▲2 North Carolina 6 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.1% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% | 67% 44% 28% 9% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 +1.6 +0.6 |
24 ▲3 St Mary's CA 7 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.2% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 68% 21% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
25 ▲1 Kentucky 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% | 79% 48% 8% 4% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.3 +0.9 |
26 ▼2 BYU 6 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 68% 45% 28% 10% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.3 +0.5 |
27 ▼4 Wisconsin 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.2% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 67% 44% 29% 9% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.7 |
28 ▲6 Georgia 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.0% -- -- 0.3% | 80% 43% 7% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 ▲2 Auburn 11 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% | 44% 20% 12% 4% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.2 +0.1 |
30 ▲5 Iowa 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 46% 7% 3% 1% 0.3% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
31 ▲11 St Louis 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% | 100% 50% 6% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.4 +0.5 |
32 ▼3 Texas A&M 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 66% 56% 14% 6% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
33 ▲19 UCF 10 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 67% 55% 11% 5% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
34 ▼2 UCLA 8 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% | 81% 45% 7% 3% 1% 0.3% | +1.0 +0.3 +0.4 |
35 ▼2 Texas 10 0.02% 0.00-0.04% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 55% 13% 6% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
36 - Ohio St 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 43% 7% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
37 ▲2 Missouri 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 56% 11% 4% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
38 ▼8 SMU 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 66% 56% 12% 5% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
39 ▲5 Clemson 8 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% | 80% 43% 7% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.1 +0.4 |
40 ▼12 Utah St 8 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% -- -- 0.3% | 80% 41% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
41 ▼3 Santa Clara 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 44% 17% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
42 ▼2 NC State 9 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 100% 42% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
43 ▼2 Indiana 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 45% 17% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
44 ▼1 TCU 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 67% 54% 11% 4% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
45 ▲2 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.1% | 80% 65% 15% 3% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
46 ▲11 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 67% 10% 5% 1% 0% 0.0% | +1.0 -- +0.1 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensemble: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53845 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 09 03:30 CET | BPI: Mar 09 03:34 CET | Odds: Mar 09 03:34 CET | Injuries: Mar 09 03:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 09 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 18.4% vs sharp 14.4% (+4.0%)
▲ Florida: model 11.7% vs sharp 10.4% (+1.3%)
▲ Houston: model 9.3% vs sharp 7.2% (+2.1%)
▲ Illinois: model 6.2% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.5%)