24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.84% 21.2-22.5% 19.1% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 35.0% | -6.8 -7.3 -6.3 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 17.97% 17.3-18.6% 19.8% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 79% 65% 46% 27.7% | +3.0 +3.0 +1.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 12.03% 11.5-12.6% 17.4% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 73% 56% 38% 21.8% | +10.0 +10.0 +8.5 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.33% 8.8-9.8% 8.4% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 77% 49% 30% 17.9% | -2.3 -0.3 -1.4 |
5 - Florida 1 8.23% 7.8-8.7% 7.9% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 52% 29% 17.3% | +4.8 +3.4 +2.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 ▲1 Iowa St 2 5.08% 4.7-5.4% 5.7% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 72% 47% 26% 12.6% | -1.1 -2.4 -1.5 |
7 ▼1 Illinois 3 5.02% 4.7-5.4% 4.9% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 36% 21% 11.5% | -0.0 -0.9 -0.8 |
8 - Connecticut 2 3.94% 3.6-4.3% 1.7% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 44% 22% 8.6% | +2.1 +1.0 +0.8 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.45% 3.1-3.8% 5.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 68% 42% 17% 7.8% | -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.55% 2.3-2.8% 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 5.0% | -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 |
11 ▲1 Michigan St 3 1.69% 1.5-1.9% 2.1% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 55% 27% 11% 4.0% | +1.3 -0.2 +0.1 | ALIGNED
12 ▼1 Alabama 4 1.31% 1.1-1.5% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 53% 20% 10% 3.8% | -- -0.2 -0.4 | ALIGNED
13 - Tennessee 6 0.90% 0.75-1.06% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.7% | -- +0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
14 ▲1 Nebraska 4 0.77% 0.63-0.92% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 46% 18% 7% 2.5% | -- +0.2 +0.1 |
15 ▼1 Arkansas 5 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 0.4% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 73% 42% 12% 5% 2.1% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.7 |
16 - St John's 5 0.67% 0.54-0.81% 0.5% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 39% 13% 6% 2.1% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.8 |
17 ▲2 Texas Tech 5 0.61% 0.48-0.74% 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 75% 43% 16% 6% 2.1% | -- -0.0 +0.2 |
18 - Vanderbilt 4 0.60% 0.48-0.73% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 41% 13% 6% 2.2% | +1.4 +0.2 +0.8 |
19 ▼2 Louisville 6 0.56% 0.44-0.69% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 36% 17% 6% 1.7% | -- -0.1 +0.2 |
20 - Virginia 3 0.48% 0.37-0.60% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 41% 17% 6% 1.9% | -- +0.6 +0.7 |
21 - Kansas 4 0.43% 0.33-0.54% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 52% 16% 7% 1.8% | +1.6 +0.1 +1.3 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.29% 0.20-0.38% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 76% 37% 11% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.28% 0.20-0.37% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 63% 29% 10% 3% 0.8% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.21% 0.14-0.29% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 69% 20% 10% 3% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.7 |
25 - Utah St 7 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 53% 18% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 - St Mary's CA 7 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 64% 16% 6% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 - Villanova 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 55% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 - Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 52% 14% 7% 2% 0.4% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
29 ▲1 North Carolina 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% -- 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 18% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
30 ▼1 Georgia 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 52% 16% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
31 ▲2 Miami FL 7 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 58% 18% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
32 ▼1 Iowa 9 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 56% 9% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
33 ▼1 Ohio St 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 44% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 ▲1 UCLA 8 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 48% 12% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.4 +0.6 |
35 ▼1 Santa Clara 11 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
36 - St Louis 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 48% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
37 ▲1 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 ▼1 VCU 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 11% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
39 - Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 10% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▲3 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 ▲7 Missouri 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 31% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.3 |
42 ▲3 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
43 ▼2 NC State 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 47% 13% 4% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
44 ▼2 TCU 9 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 45% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
45 ▲1 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 10% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
46 ▲1 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 25% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
47 ▼3 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
48 ▼8 Texas A&M 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 36% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.4 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 22 16:30 CET | BPI: Mar 22 16:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 22 16:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 22 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.8% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.3%)
▲ Houston: model 9.3% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.4%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.1% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.5%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.5% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.0%)