24h Team                   Seed     Ens%         90% CI     LR%    Kal%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1  -   Arizona                   1   21.97%     21.3-22.7%   19.1%   15.0%   14.5%   15.5% |  100%   95%   82%   65%   52% 34.6% |   -7.0   -7.5   -6.5 | MODEL HIGHER
  2  -   Duke                      1   17.88%     17.3-18.5%   20.3%   21.0%   21.0%   19.8% |  100%   94%   79%   64%   45% 27.3% |   +3.1   +3.1   +1.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
  3  -   Michigan                  1   11.58%     11.1-12.1%   18.3%   22.0%   22.0%   20.5% |  100%   89%   72%   55%   37% 21.5% |  +10.4  +10.4   +9.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4  -   Houston                   2    9.17%       8.7-9.7%    6.3%    7.0%    9.0%    7.9% |  100%   94%   76%   49%   30% 18.0% |   -2.2   -0.2   -1.3 | 
  5  -   Florida                   1    8.10%       7.6-8.6%    8.7%   13.0%   11.6%   10.9% |  100%   93%   73%   53%   29% 17.1% |   +4.9   +3.5   +2.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
  6  -   Illinois                  3    4.86%       4.5-5.2%    4.5%    5.0%    4.1%    4.2% |  100%   85%   65%   34%   20% 11.3% |   +0.1   -0.8   -0.6 | ALIGNED
  7  -   Iowa St                   2    4.80%       4.4-5.1%    5.7%    4.0%    2.7%    3.6% |  100%   92%   72%   47%   25% 12.5% |   -0.8   -2.1   -1.2 | 
  8  -   Connecticut               2    4.50%       4.2-4.8%    1.9%    6.0%    4.9%    4.7% |  100%   88%   71%   47%   23%  9.3% |   +1.5   +0.4   +0.2 | 
  9  -   Purdue                    2    3.34%       3.0-3.6%    4.5%    3.0%    2.8%    2.2% |  100%   92%   69%   42%   17%  7.6% |   -0.3   -0.5   -1.2 | 
 10  -   Gonzaga                   3    2.66%       2.4-2.9%    1.5%    2.0%    1.6%    1.5% |  100%   91%   60%   34%   12%  5.2% |   -0.7   -1.1   -1.1 | 
 11  -   Alabama                   4    1.48%       1.3-1.7%    0.4%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   85%   53%   21%   10%  4.3% |     --   -0.4   -0.6 | ALIGNED
 12  -   Michigan St               3    1.41%       1.2-1.6%    1.8%    3.0%    1.5%    1.8% |  100%   90%   48%   24%    9%  3.3% |   +1.6   +0.1   +0.4 | 
 13 ▲1   Tennessee                 6    0.85%     0.70-1.01%    0.6%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   68%   43%   20%    7%  2.6% |     --   +0.2   +0.1 | ALIGNED
 14 ▲1   Nebraska                  4    0.85%     0.70-1.01%    0.9%    1.0%    1.0%    0.9% |  100%   88%   48%   19%    7%  2.7% |     --   +0.1   +0.0 | ALIGNED
 15 ▼2   Arkansas                  5    0.76%     0.62-0.91%    0.5%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   73%   40%   11%    5%  1.9% |   +1.2   +0.0   +0.7 | 
 16 ▲1   Vanderbilt                4    0.74%     0.60-0.88%    1.1%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   80%   44%   14%    6%  2.4% |   +1.3   +0.1   +0.6 | 
 17 ▼1   Louisville                6    0.73%     0.59-0.87%    0.5%    1.0%    0.5%    0.8% |  100%   72%   43%   19%    6%  2.0% |     --   -0.2   +0.1 | 
 18  -   St John's                 5    0.73%     0.59-0.87%    0.6%    2.0%    1.1%    1.5% |  100%   75%   38%   13%    6%  2.2% |   +1.3   +0.4   +0.7 | 
 19  -   Virginia                  3    0.61%     0.49-0.74%    1.1%    1.0%    1.1%    1.2% |  100%   87%   42%   18%    6%  2.1% |     --   +0.5   +0.6 | 
 20  -   Kansas                    4    0.53%     0.41-0.65%    0.4%    2.0%    0.5%    1.7% |  100%   83%   51%   16%    7%  1.9% |   +1.5   -0.0   +1.2 | 
 21  -   Texas Tech                5    0.46%     0.35-0.57%    0.4%    1.0%    0.6%    0.8% |  100%   72%   40%   14%    5%  1.5% |     --   +0.1   +0.4 | 
 22  -   Wisconsin                 5    0.33%     0.24-0.42%    0.3%    2.0%    --      1.3% |  100%   74%   37%   11%    4%  1.2% |   +1.7     --   +0.9 | 
 23  -   BYU                       6    0.30%     0.21-0.39%    0.1%    2.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   68%   31%   12%    3%  1.0% |   +1.7   +0.0   +0.2 | 
 24 ▲7   Kentucky                  7    0.20%     0.13-0.28%    0.0%    1.0%    0.3%    0.9% |  100%   68%   20%    9%    3%  1.0% |     --   +0.1   +0.7 | 
 25 ▼1   St Mary's CA              7    0.16%     0.10-0.23%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   61%   16%    6%    2%  0.7% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 26 ▲11  Villanova                 8    0.12%     0.07-0.18%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   63%   14%    6%    2%  0.4% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 27 ▼1   Georgia                   8    0.11%     0.06-0.17%    0.0%    --      --      0.2% |  100%   51%   16%    6%    2%  0.6% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 28 ▼3   Ohio St                   8    0.10%     0.05-0.16%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   48%    9%    4%    1%  0.4% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 29 ▼2   North Carolina            6    0.09%     0.04-0.14%    0.0%    1.0%    0.7%    0.7% |  100%   65%   22%    6%    2%  0.5% |     --   +0.6   +0.6 | 
 30 ▼2   Utah St                   7    0.09%     0.04-0.14%    0.1%    --      --      0.3% |  100%   50%   16%    6%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 31 ▼2   Clemson                   9    0.08%     0.04-0.13%    0.0%    1.0%    0.1%    0.3% |  100%   52%   14%    7%    2%  0.5% |     --   +0.0   +0.2 | 
 32 ▼2   UCLA                      8    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    0.1%    1.0%    0.4%    0.6% |  100%   48%   12%    5%    1%  0.3% |     --   +0.3   +0.6 | 
 33  -   Miami FL                  7    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   55%   17%    6%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 34  -   Iowa                      9    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.4% |  100%   52%    8%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 35  -   St Louis                  9    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.0%    1.0%    0.3%    0.3% |  100%   49%   10%    4%    1%  0.2% |     --   +0.2   +0.2 | 
 36 ▲4   Santa Clara              11    0.04%     0.01-0.07%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   32%   13%    4%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 37 ▲2   South Florida            11    0.03%     0.00-0.06%    --      --      --      0.1% |  100%   28%    7%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 38  -   NC State                 10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      1.0%    0.2%    0.3% |  100%   50%   14%    5%    1%  0.1% |     --   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 39 ▼7   VCU                      11    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   35%   10%    2%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 40 ▲4   UCF                      10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   45%   11%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 41 ▲6   Miami OH                 12    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   25%    5%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 42 ▲3   McNeese St               12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --     99.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   28%   10%    2%    0%  0.1% |  +99.0     --   +0.1 | 
 43 ▼1   Texas                    11    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   32%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 44 ▲2   Akron                    12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    0.0%    --      --      0.2% |  100%   26%    8%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 45 ▲3   High Point               13    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   20%    5%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 46 ▼5   SMU                      12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   27%   10%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973  |  10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 19 20:00 CET | BPI: Mar 19 20:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 19 20:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 19 02:05 CET

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Arizona: model 22.0% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.5%)
  ▲ Houston: model 9.2% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.3%)
  ▲ Iowa St: model 4.8% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.2%)
  ▲ Purdue: model 3.3% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.2%)
  ▲ Gonzaga: model 2.7% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)