24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 20.80% 20.1-21.5% 18.4% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 81% 63% 51% 33.4% | -5.8 -6.3 -5.3 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.97% 18.3-19.6% 23.4% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 92% 78% 65% 47% 28.9% | +2.0 +2.0 +0.8 |
3 - Michigan 1 11.99% 11.5-12.5% 17.3% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 89% 72% 55% 38% 21.9% | +10.0 +10.0 +8.5 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.21% 8.7-9.7% 6.6% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 79% 49% 31% 18.0% | -2.2 -0.2 -1.3 |
5 - Florida 1 7.72% 7.3-8.2% 8.8% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 72% 52% 28% 16.3% | +5.3 +3.9 +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 5.38% 5.0-5.8% 4.7% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 37% 22% 12.3% | -0.4 -1.3 -1.1 |
7 - Iowa St 2 4.64% 4.3-5.0% 4.8% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 70% 46% 25% 12.1% | -0.6 -1.9 -1.1 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.30% 4.0-4.6% 1.9% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 46% 22% 8.9% | +1.7 +0.6 +0.4 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.28% 3.0-3.6% 4.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 69% 42% 17% 7.4% | -0.3 -0.5 -1.1 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.65% 2.4-2.9% 1.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 13% 5.2% | -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.48% 1.3-1.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 85% 53% 20% 10% 4.3% | -- -0.4 -0.6 | ALIGNED
12 - Michigan St 3 1.39% 1.2-1.6% 1.5% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 48% 23% 9% 3.2% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.4 |
13 - Arkansas 5 0.92% 0.77-1.08% 0.6% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 80% 44% 13% 6% 2.4% | +1.1 -0.1 +0.5 | ALIGNED
14 - Nebraska 4 0.84% 0.69-0.99% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 48% 19% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.0 |
15 - Tennessee 6 0.83% 0.68-0.98% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 71% 45% 20% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.3 +0.1 |
16 - Louisville 6 0.80% 0.65-0.95% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 43% 19% 6% 2.1% | -- -0.3 -0.0 |
17 - Vanderbilt 4 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 0.8% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 80% 45% 15% 6% 2.4% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.6 |
18 - St John's 5 0.70% 0.57-0.84% 0.5% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 40% 13% 6% 2.3% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.8 |
19 - Virginia 3 0.54% 0.42-0.66% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 85% 42% 17% 6% 1.9% | -- +0.6 +0.7 |
20 ▲1 Kansas 4 0.48% 0.37-0.59% 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 83% 50% 15% 6% 1.9% | +1.5 +0.0 +1.2 |
21 ▼1 Texas Tech 5 0.47% 0.36-0.58% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 72% 40% 15% 5% 1.6% | -- +0.1 +0.4 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.29% 0.21-0.38% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 70% 35% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.26% 0.18-0.35% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 68% 31% 11% 3% 0.9% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 - St Mary's CA 7 0.24% 0.16-0.32% 0.2% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 61% 19% 10% 3% 0.9% | -- -- +0.0 |
25 - Ohio St 8 0.15% 0.09-0.22% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 68% 15% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.3 |
26 - Georgia 8 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 16% 6% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 - North Carolina 6 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 63% 20% 5% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
28 - Utah St 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 46% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 - Clemson 9 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 61% 16% 8% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
30 - UCLA 7 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 49% 11% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.3 +0.5 |
31 - Kentucky 7 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 58% 18% 6% 1% 0.4% | -- +0.2 +0.8 |
32 ▲4 VCU 11 0.06% 0.02-0.10% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 28% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
33 ▼1 Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 58% 18% 6% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 - Iowa 9 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 54% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.3 |
35 - St Louis 9 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
36 ▼3 Texas A&M 10 0.04% 0.01-0.07% -- 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 51% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
37 - Villanova 8 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 39% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
38 ▲2 NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 42% 12% 4% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
39 - South Florida 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 30% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
40 ▼2 Santa Clara 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 39% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 - SMU 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 - Texas 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 32% 8% 2% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 ▲1 Missouri 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 29% 11% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
44 ▲1 UCF 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 10% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
45 ▲2 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
46 - Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 20% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▲2 Miami OH 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
48 - High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 20% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 18 07:00 CET | BPI: Mar 18 07:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 18 07:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 18 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 20.8% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.3%)
▲ Houston: model 9.2% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.3%)
▲ Illinois: model 5.4% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.1%)
▲ Iowa St: model 4.6% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.1%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.3% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.1%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.6% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)