24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 20.95% 20.3-21.6% 19.9% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.0% | -5.9 -6.5 -5.4 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 19.08% 18.4-19.7% 20.8% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 80% 66% 47% 29.1% | +1.9 +1.9 +0.7 |
3 - Michigan 1 11.70% 11.2-12.2% 17.0% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 73% 55% 37% 21.6% | +10.3 +10.3 +8.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.30% 8.8-9.8% 6.7% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 49% 30% 17.6% | -2.3 -0.3 -1.4 |
5 - Florida 1 8.29% 7.8-8.7% 7.9% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 73% 52% 30% 17.6% | +4.7 +3.3 +2.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Iowa St 2 5.29% 4.9-5.7% 6.3% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 73% 48% 26% 13.3% | -1.3 -2.6 -1.7 |
7 - Illinois 3 4.59% 4.2-4.9% 5.8% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 86% 66% 34% 20% 10.8% | +0.4 -0.5 -0.3 | ALIGNED
8 - Connecticut 2 4.40% 4.1-4.8% 2.0% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 71% 47% 23% 9.1% | +1.6 +0.5 +0.3 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.50% 3.2-3.8% 4.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 68% 42% 17% 7.8% | -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.49% 2.2-2.8% 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 4.9% | -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 |
11 - Michigan St 3 1.74% 1.5-2.0% 1.8% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 55% 27% 11% 4.0% | +1.3 -0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
12 - Alabama 4 1.32% 1.1-1.5% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 87% 52% 21% 9% 3.8% | -- -0.2 -0.5 | ALIGNED
13 ▲1 Nebraska 4 0.91% 0.76-1.07% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 51% 21% 8% 3.0% | -- +0.1 -0.0 | ALIGNED
14 ▼1 Tennessee 6 0.86% 0.71-1.01% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 44% 20% 8% 2.8% | -- +0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
15 - St John's 5 0.75% 0.61-0.89% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 41% 14% 6% 2.4% | +1.2 +0.3 +0.7 |
16 - Arkansas 5 0.70% 0.57-0.84% 0.3% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 73% 43% 12% 5% 2.0% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.7 |
17 - Vanderbilt 4 0.60% 0.47-0.73% 0.9% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 41% 13% 5% 2.0% | +1.4 +0.2 +0.8 |
18 - Virginia 3 0.44% 0.34-0.55% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 41% 17% 6% 1.9% | -- +0.7 +0.8 |
19 - Texas Tech 5 0.41% 0.31-0.52% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 73% 38% 13% 4% 1.4% | -- +0.2 +0.4 |
20 - Louisville 6 0.38% 0.28-0.49% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 71% 36% 15% 5% 1.2% | -- +0.1 +0.4 |
21 - Kansas 4 0.37% 0.27-0.47% 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 51% 15% 6% 1.7% | +1.6 +0.1 +1.3 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.32% 0.23-0.41% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 75% 37% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.30% 0.21-0.39% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 64% 29% 10% 3% 0.9% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.21% 0.14-0.29% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 69% 20% 10% 3% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.7 |
25 - St Mary's CA 7 0.16% 0.10-0.23% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 68% 18% 7% 2% 0.8% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 - Utah St 7 0.14% 0.08-0.20% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 53% 18% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 ▲1 Iowa 9 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 57% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.3 |
28 ▼1 Villanova 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 55% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 - Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 51% 14% 7% 2% 0.4% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
30 - North Carolina 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 62% 20% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
31 - UCLA 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 49% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.3 +0.6 |
32 - Ohio St 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 43% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
33 ▲2 Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
34 - Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 58% 17% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
35 ▼2 Georgia 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 16% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
36 - St Louis 9 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
37 - South Florida 11 0.03% 0.00-0.06% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 29% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 - Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 36% 10% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
39 - VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 38% 11% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 - NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 47% 13% 4% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
41 - UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 - Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
43 - SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 - Texas A&M 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 32% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.4 |
45 - McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 27% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
46 - TCU 9 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 45% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 - High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 27 09:00 CET | BPI: Mar 27 09:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 27 09:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 27 02:35 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 20.9% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.4%)
▲ Houston: model 9.3% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.4%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.3% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.7%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)