24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.69% 21.0-22.4% 20.4% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 35.1% | -6.7 -7.2 -6.2 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 16.63% 16.0-17.3% 17.0% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 78% 63% 44% 26.0% | +4.4 +4.4 +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.83% 11.3-12.4% 17.4% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 73% 55% 37% 21.4% | +10.2 +10.2 +8.7 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.87% 9.4-10.4% 7.5% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 49% 31% 18.3% | -2.9 -0.9 -2.0 |
5 - Florida 1 7.96% 7.5-8.4% 9.0% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 73% 53% 29% 16.5% | +5.0 +3.6 +2.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 ▲1 Iowa St 2 5.15% 4.8-5.5% 5.8% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 72% 47% 26% 13.0% | -1.1 -2.4 -1.6 |
7 ▼1 Illinois 3 4.97% 4.6-5.3% 4.9% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 85% 65% 34% 20% 11.3% | +0.0 -0.9 -0.7 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.34% 4.0-4.7% 2.3% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 71% 45% 23% 9.2% | +1.7 +0.6 +0.4 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.60% 3.3-3.9% 5.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 91% 69% 42% 17% 8.1% | -0.6 -0.8 -1.4 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.66% 2.4-2.9% 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 61% 34% 12% 5.2% | -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.46% 1.3-1.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 53% 21% 10% 4.1% | -- -0.4 -0.6 | ALIGNED
12 - Michigan St 3 1.44% 1.2-1.6% 1.8% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 49% 24% 10% 3.5% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.3 |
13 - Tennessee 6 0.94% 0.78-1.10% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 68% 43% 20% 7% 2.7% | -- +0.2 -0.0 | ALIGNED
14 - Nebraska 4 0.91% 0.76-1.07% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 48% 19% 7% 2.7% | -- +0.1 -0.0 | ALIGNED
15 ▲1 Arkansas 5 0.80% 0.66-0.95% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 73% 40% 12% 5% 2.1% | +1.2 +0.0 +0.6 |
16 ▲2 Louisville 6 0.75% 0.61-0.89% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 19% 7% 2.1% | -- -0.2 +0.0 |
17 ▼2 St John's 5 0.74% 0.60-0.88% 0.5% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 76% 39% 13% 6% 2.3% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.7 |
18 ▼1 Vanderbilt 4 0.71% 0.57-0.85% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 44% 14% 6% 2.3% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.7 |
19 ▲1 Kansas 4 0.70% 0.57-0.84% 0.6% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 55% 18% 8% 2.3% | +1.3 -0.2 +1.0 |
20 ▼1 Virginia 3 0.55% 0.43-0.68% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 41% 17% 6% 2.0% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
21 - Texas Tech 5 0.44% 0.34-0.55% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 72% 40% 14% 5% 1.6% | -- +0.2 +0.4 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.30% 0.21-0.39% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 76% 34% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.23% 0.16-0.31% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 63% 28% 10% 3% 0.8% | +1.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.22% 0.15-0.30% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 68% 20% 9% 3% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.6 |
25 - St Mary's CA 7 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 54% 14% 5% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▲4 Utah St 7 0.10% 0.05-0.16% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 49% 15% 5% 1% 0.4% | -- -- +0.2 |
27 ▼1 Villanova 8 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 57% 13% 5% 2% 0.4% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 ▼1 Georgia 8 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 50% 15% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 ▲2 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 52% 14% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
30 ▼1 North Carolina 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 21% 5% 1% 0.4% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
31 ▼3 Ohio St 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 49% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
32 ▲2 UCLA 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 48% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.3 +0.6 |
33 - Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 52% 16% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 ▲2 St Louis 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 50% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.2 +0.2 |
35 - Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 32% 14% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.1 |
36 ▼4 Iowa 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 51% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.3 |
37 ▲11 Texas A&M 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 46% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
38 ▲1 VCU 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 12% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
39 ▼2 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
40 ▲7 TCU 9 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 43% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 ▲2 Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 10% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 ▼4 NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 51% 15% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
43 ▼3 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 48% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 ▼3 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.04% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 24% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
45 ▼3 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
46 - SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▼2 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 20 18:30 CET | BPI: Mar 20 18:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 20 18:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 20 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.7% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.2%)
▲ Houston: model 9.9% vs sharp 7.9% (+2.0%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.1% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.6%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.6% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.4%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.7% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)