Team                   Seed   Model%         90% CI Kalshi%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1 Duke                      1   23.07%     22.4-23.8%   23.0%   22.0%   19.5% |  100%   96%   85%   71%   52% 35.4% |   -0.1   -1.1   -3.5 | 
  2 Arizona                   1   17.23%     16.6-17.9%   14.0%   10.9%   14.4% |  100%   97%   85%   69%   48% 29.9% |   -3.2   -6.3   -2.8 | MODEL HIGHER
  3 Michigan                  1   15.29%     14.7-15.9%   20.0%   18.0%   19.5% |  100%   95%   84%   66%   46% 27.2% |   +4.7   +2.7   +4.2 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4 Florida                   2    9.95%      9.4-10.5%   13.0%   11.3%    9.1% |  100%   95%   80%   60%   33% 18.6% |   +3.0   +1.3   -0.9 | 
  5 Houston                   2    9.05%       8.6-9.5%    7.0%    8.0%    7.8% |  100%   96%   83%   62%   33% 17.9% |   -2.0   -1.0   -1.2 | 
  6 Illinois                  2    6.08%       5.7-6.5%    5.0%    4.3%    4.6% |  100%   95%   78%   55%   28% 13.5% |   -1.1   -1.8   -1.4 | 
  7 Connecticut               1    5.32%       5.0-5.7%    7.0%    5.8%    5.1% |  100%   95%   74%   48%   28% 12.7% |   +1.7   +0.5   -0.3 | 
  8 Michigan St               2    2.24%       2.0-2.5%    2.0%    2.3%    1.9% |  100%   94%   71%   43%   17%  6.4% |   -0.2   +0.1   -0.4 | ALIGNED
  9 Purdue                    3    2.09%       1.8-2.3%    3.0%    3.1%    2.7% |  100%   92%   66%   34%   13%  5.6% |   +0.9   +1.0   +0.6 | 
 10 Iowa St                   3    2.08%       1.8-2.3%    4.0%    2.8%    3.7% |  100%   91%   64%   31%   13%  5.5% |   +1.9   +0.7   +1.7 | 
 11 Gonzaga                   4    1.74%       1.5-2.0%    2.0%    1.8%    1.8% |   80%   70%   50%   19%   11%  4.8% |   +0.3   +0.1   +0.1 | ALIGNED
 12 Alabama                   4    0.69%     0.56-0.83%    1.0%    0.8%    1.5% |   79%   69%   43%   14%    6%  2.3% |   +0.3   +0.1   +0.8 | 
 13 Kansas                    4    0.60%     0.48-0.73%    3.0%    1.9%    1.9% |   80%   71%   46%   14%    6%  2.1% |   +2.4   +1.3   +1.3 | 
 14 Virginia                  3    0.56%     0.44-0.69%    1.0%    1.0%    1.0% |  100%   94%   54%   21%    6%  1.8% |   +0.4   +0.4   +0.4 | 
 15 Louisville                6    0.50%     0.39-0.62%    1.0%    0.5%    1.0% |  100%   76%   46%   19%    6%  1.8% |   +0.5   +0.0   +0.5 | 
 16 Nebraska                  4    0.49%     0.38-0.61%    2.0%    1.0%    1.1% |   80%   71%   42%   14%    6%  1.8% |   +1.5   +0.5   +0.6 | 
 17 Tennessee                 5    0.48%     0.37-0.60%    1.0%    0.6%    1.3% |   80%   67%   33%   10%    4%  1.3% |   +0.5   +0.1   +0.8 | 
 18 Texas Tech                4    0.42%     0.32-0.53%    1.0%    2.5%    0.8% |   81%   72%   43%   12%    5%  1.5% |   +0.6   +2.1   +0.4 | 
 19 Vanderbilt                5    0.32%     0.23-0.42%    2.0%    0.5%    0.9% |   80%   68%   32%    9%    4%  1.1% |   +1.7   +0.2   +0.6 | 
 20 Arkansas                  5    0.29%     0.20-0.38%    2.0%    0.8%    1.5% |   81%   66%   32%    9%    4%  1.0% |   +1.7   +0.5   +1.3 | 
 21 St John's                 5    0.27%     0.19-0.36%    2.0%    1.0%    1.5% |   80%   66%   33%   10%    4%  1.3% |   +1.7   +0.7   +1.2 | 
 22 Wisconsin                 6    0.14%     0.08-0.20%    1.0%    --      0.8% |  100%   66%   35%   11%    2%  0.6% |   +0.9     --   +0.6 | 
 23 BYU                       6    0.12%     0.07-0.18%    1.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   67%   34%   11%    3%  0.8% |   +0.9   +0.2   +0.4 | 
 24 Kentucky                  7    0.12%     0.07-0.18%    1.0%    0.4%    1.0% |  100%   61%   17%    8%    2%  0.6% |   +0.9   +0.3   +0.8 | 
 25 Villanova                 6    0.12%     0.07-0.18%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   60%   30%    9%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9     --   +0.2 | 
 26 St Mary's CA              8    0.08%     0.04-0.13%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   52%   11%    5%    2%  0.4% |   +0.9     --   +0.3 | 
 27 St Louis                  8    0.07%     0.03-0.12%    1.0%    0.5%    0.5% |   67%   53%    9%    4%    1%  0.3% |   +0.9   +0.4   +0.5 | 
 28 North Carolina            5    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    1.0%    1.7%    0.7% |   80%   58%   23%    5%    1%  0.4% |   +0.9   +1.6   +0.7 | 
 29 UCLA                      9    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |  100%   50%    9%    4%    1%  0.3% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 30 Georgia                   8    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    --      --      0.3% |   66%   49%    8%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 31 Auburn                   11    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    1.0%    0.2%    0.2% |   50%   27%   14%    4%    1%  0.3% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.1 | 
 32 SMU                      10    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    1.0%    --      0.3% |   57%   48%   10%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 33 Clemson                   8    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |   66%   50%    9%    3%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 34 UCF                      10    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    1.0%    --      0.3% |   57%   48%    9%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 35 TCU                      10    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    --      --      0.2% |   57%   48%    9%    3%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 36 Texas                    10    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   57%   48%   10%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 37 Ohio St                  10    0.03%     0.00-0.06%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   57%   49%   10%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 38 Missouri                 10    0.03%     0.00-0.06%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   57%   48%    9%    3%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 39 Utah St                   8    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    --      --      0.3% |   67%   50%   10%    3%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 40 NC State                  8    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    1.0%    0.6%    0.4% |   67%   48%    7%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0   +0.6   +0.4 | 
 41 Iowa                      9    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   46%    8%    3%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0     --   +0.5 | 
 42 Santa Clara              11    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   19%    9%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 43 Indiana                  11    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   51%   20%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 44 McNeese St               12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      --      0.1% |   66%   14%    3%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 45 Texas A&M                10    0.00%     0.00-0.00%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   57%   49%   11%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 46 New Mexico               11    0.00%     0.00-0.00%    --      --      --   |   51%   14%    5%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --     -- | 
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53845  |  10,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 07 16:00 CET | BPI: Mar 07 16:04 CET | Odds: Mar 07 16:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 07 16:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 07 00:35 CET

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Duke: model 23.1% vs sharp 19.5% (+3.5%)
  ▲ Arizona: model 17.2% vs sharp 14.4% (+2.8%)
  ▲ Houston: model 9.0% vs sharp 7.8% (+1.2%)
  ▲ Illinois: model 6.1% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.4%)