Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 23.07% 22.4-23.8% 23.0% 22.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 85% 71% 52% 35.4% | -0.1 -1.1 -3.5 |
2 Arizona 1 17.23% 16.6-17.9% 14.0% 10.9% 14.4% | 100% 97% 85% 69% 48% 29.9% | -3.2 -6.3 -2.8 | MODEL HIGHER
3 Michigan 1 15.29% 14.7-15.9% 20.0% 18.0% 19.5% | 100% 95% 84% 66% 46% 27.2% | +4.7 +2.7 +4.2 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Florida 2 9.95% 9.4-10.5% 13.0% 11.3% 9.1% | 100% 95% 80% 60% 33% 18.6% | +3.0 +1.3 -0.9 |
5 Houston 2 9.05% 8.6-9.5% 7.0% 8.0% 7.8% | 100% 96% 83% 62% 33% 17.9% | -2.0 -1.0 -1.2 |
6 Illinois 2 6.08% 5.7-6.5% 5.0% 4.3% 4.6% | 100% 95% 78% 55% 28% 13.5% | -1.1 -1.8 -1.4 |
7 Connecticut 1 5.32% 5.0-5.7% 7.0% 5.8% 5.1% | 100% 95% 74% 48% 28% 12.7% | +1.7 +0.5 -0.3 |
8 Michigan St 2 2.24% 2.0-2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% | 100% 94% 71% 43% 17% 6.4% | -0.2 +0.1 -0.4 | ALIGNED
9 Purdue 3 2.09% 1.8-2.3% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% | 100% 92% 66% 34% 13% 5.6% | +0.9 +1.0 +0.6 |
10 Iowa St 3 2.08% 1.8-2.3% 4.0% 2.8% 3.7% | 100% 91% 64% 31% 13% 5.5% | +1.9 +0.7 +1.7 |
11 Gonzaga 4 1.74% 1.5-2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% | 80% 70% 50% 19% 11% 4.8% | +0.3 +0.1 +0.1 | ALIGNED
12 Alabama 4 0.69% 0.56-0.83% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 79% 69% 43% 14% 6% 2.3% | +0.3 +0.1 +0.8 |
13 Kansas 4 0.60% 0.48-0.73% 3.0% 1.9% 1.9% | 80% 71% 46% 14% 6% 2.1% | +2.4 +1.3 +1.3 |
14 Virginia 3 0.56% 0.44-0.69% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% | 100% 94% 54% 21% 6% 1.8% | +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 |
15 Louisville 6 0.50% 0.39-0.62% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% | 100% 76% 46% 19% 6% 1.8% | +0.5 +0.0 +0.5 |
16 Nebraska 4 0.49% 0.38-0.61% 2.0% 1.0% 1.1% | 80% 71% 42% 14% 6% 1.8% | +1.5 +0.5 +0.6 |
17 Tennessee 5 0.48% 0.37-0.60% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% | 80% 67% 33% 10% 4% 1.3% | +0.5 +0.1 +0.8 |
18 Texas Tech 4 0.42% 0.32-0.53% 1.0% 2.5% 0.8% | 81% 72% 43% 12% 5% 1.5% | +0.6 +2.1 +0.4 |
19 Vanderbilt 5 0.32% 0.23-0.42% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% | 80% 68% 32% 9% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 +0.2 +0.6 |
20 Arkansas 5 0.29% 0.20-0.38% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 81% 66% 32% 9% 4% 1.0% | +1.7 +0.5 +1.3 |
21 St John's 5 0.27% 0.19-0.36% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% | 80% 66% 33% 10% 4% 1.3% | +1.7 +0.7 +1.2 |
22 Wisconsin 6 0.14% 0.08-0.20% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 100% 66% 35% 11% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 -- +0.6 |
23 BYU 6 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 67% 34% 11% 3% 0.8% | +0.9 +0.2 +0.4 |
24 Kentucky 7 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% | 100% 61% 17% 8% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 +0.3 +0.8 |
25 Villanova 6 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 60% 30% 9% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
26 St Mary's CA 8 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 52% 11% 5% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
27 St Louis 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 67% 53% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.4 +0.5 |
28 North Carolina 5 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% | 80% 58% 23% 5% 1% 0.4% | +0.9 +1.6 +0.7 |
29 UCLA 9 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 50% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 |
30 Georgia 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% -- -- 0.3% | 66% 49% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
31 Auburn 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 50% 27% 14% 4% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.1 |
32 SMU 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 57% 48% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
33 Clemson 8 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 66% 50% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.3 |
34 UCF 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 57% 48% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
35 TCU 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% -- -- 0.2% | 57% 48% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
36 Texas 10 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 48% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
37 Ohio St 10 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 49% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
38 Missouri 10 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 48% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
39 Utah St 8 0.03% 0.01-0.06% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 50% 10% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.3 |
40 NC State 8 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 67% 48% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
41 Iowa 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 46% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
42 Santa Clara 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 19% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
43 Indiana 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 51% 20% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
44 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- 0.1% | 66% 14% 3% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
45 Texas A&M 10 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 49% 11% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
46 New Mexico 11 0.00% 0.00-0.00% -- -- -- | 51% 14% 5% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- -- |
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53845 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 07 16:00 CET | BPI: Mar 07 16:04 CET | Odds: Mar 07 16:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 07 16:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 07 00:35 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Duke: model 23.1% vs sharp 19.5% (+3.5%)
▲ Arizona: model 17.2% vs sharp 14.4% (+2.8%)
▲ Houston: model 9.0% vs sharp 7.8% (+1.2%)
▲ Illinois: model 6.1% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.4%)