Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 20.86% 20.6-21.1% 25.0% 21.0% 20.0% | 100% 96% 84% 71% 50% 33.4% | +4.1 +0.1 -0.9 |
2 Michigan 1 16.43% 16.2-16.7% 20.0% 18.0% 19.8% | 100% 95% 83% 67% 45% 27.8% | +3.6 +1.6 +3.3 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 Arizona 1 15.42% 15.2-15.7% 14.0% 12.2% 14.9% | 100% 96% 84% 68% 46% 27.6% | -1.4 -3.2 -0.5 |
4 Houston 2 10.45% 10.2-10.7% 7.0% 8.0% 7.2% | 100% 96% 80% 60% 34% 19.6% | -3.4 -2.4 -3.2 | MODEL HIGHER
5 Florida 2 9.26% 9.0-9.5% 13.0% 11.4% 9.6% | 100% 94% 78% 57% 32% 17.6% | +3.7 +2.1 +0.3 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 Illinois 2 6.93% 6.8-7.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% | 100% 95% 77% 54% 28% 14.5% | -1.9 -2.0 -2.3 | MODEL HIGHER
7 Connecticut 1 5.91% 5.7-6.1% 7.0% 7.4% 4.8% | 100% 95% 75% 50% 30% 13.9% | +1.1 +1.5 -1.1 | ALIGNED
8 Michigan St 2 2.65% 2.5-2.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% | 100% 94% 68% 42% 18% 7.0% | -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 |
9 Purdue 3 2.41% 2.3-2.5% 3.0% 3.1% 2.1% | 100% 92% 67% 35% 15% 6.2% | +0.6 +0.7 -0.3 | ALIGNED
10 Iowa St 3 1.92% 1.8-2.0% 4.0% 2.8% 3.7% | 100% 89% 63% 30% 13% 5.2% | +2.1 +0.9 +1.8 |
11 Gonzaga 4 1.70% 1.6-1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% | 67% 59% 44% 17% 10% 4.2% | +0.3 +0.5 -0.2 | ALIGNED
12 Alabama 4 0.71% 0.64-0.77% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% | 67% 59% 40% 13% 6% 2.3% | +0.3 +0.4 +0.4 |
13 Louisville 6 0.64% 0.58-0.70% 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% | 100% 77% 47% 20% 6% 2.1% | +0.4 +0.1 +0.3 |
14 Tennessee 5 0.52% 0.47-0.58% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% | 100% 84% 41% 12% 5% 1.7% | +0.5 +0.4 +0.7 |
15 Virginia 3 0.50% 0.45-0.55% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% | 100% 94% 56% 21% 6% 1.9% | +0.5 +0.5 +0.5 |
16 Kansas 4 0.47% 0.42-0.52% 3.0% 2.0% 2.2% | 67% 59% 39% 11% 5% 1.6% | +2.5 +1.5 +1.8 |
17 Vanderbilt 5 0.47% 0.42-0.52% 2.0% 0.7% 0.9% | 100% 85% 43% 12% 5% 1.6% | +1.5 +0.2 +0.4 |
18 St John's 4 0.44% 0.39-0.49% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% | 67% 59% 38% 12% 5% 1.7% | +0.6 +0.8 +0.9 |
19 Texas Tech 4 0.44% 0.39-0.49% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% | 66% 60% 39% 11% 5% 1.6% | +0.6 +1.0 +0.4 |
20 Nebraska 4 0.39% 0.34-0.43% 2.0% 1.6% 1.1% | 67% 57% 36% 11% 4% 1.3% | +1.6 +1.2 +0.7 |
21 Arkansas 5 0.31% 0.27-0.35% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 81% 38% 11% 4% 1.2% | +1.7 +0.5 +1.1 |
22 BYU 6 0.15% 0.12-0.17% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 67% 34% 11% 3% 0.8% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.4 |
23 St Mary's CA 8 0.12% 0.10-0.15% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 48% 11% 5% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
24 North Carolina 6 0.12% 0.10-0.15% 1.0% 2.0% 1.1% | 100% 65% 32% 9% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 +1.9 +0.9 |
25 Kentucky 7 0.10% 0.07-0.12% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% | 100% 62% 17% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.6 +0.9 |
26 Auburn 10 0.10% 0.07-0.12% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 67% 51% 14% 7% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.1 |
27 Wisconsin 7 0.09% 0.07-0.11% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 100% 60% 17% 7% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.7 |
28 Villanova 6 0.09% 0.07-0.11% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 59% 30% 8% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
29 UCLA 9 0.06% 0.04-0.08% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 54% 10% 4% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 |
30 Georgia 8 0.04% 0.02-0.05% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 42% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
31 Utah St 8 0.04% 0.03-0.06% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 43% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
32 St Louis 8 0.03% 0.02-0.05% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 67% 46% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.5 +0.5 |
33 Iowa 9 0.03% 0.02-0.04% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 44% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
34 Clemson 8 0.03% 0.02-0.04% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 66% 43% 7% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.4 |
35 NC State 8 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 67% 42% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
36 Texas 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 47% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
37 Texas A&M 11 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 50% 24% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
38 Ohio St 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 67% 47% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
39 Indiana 11 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 20% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
40 SMU 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 67% 45% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
41 Santa Clara 11 0.01% 0.00-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 20% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
42 VCU 11 0.01% 0.00-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 18% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
43 TCU 10 0.01% 0.00-0.02% -- -- 0.2% | 67% 44% 8% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 UCF 9 0.01% 0.00-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 39% 5% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
45 Missouri 10 0.01% 0.01-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 45% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
46 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.01% -- -- 0.1% | 57% 23% 6% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
47 South Florida 12 0.01% 0.00-0.01% -- -- 0.1% | 57% 24% 7% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Model: 70% LightGBM + 30% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53618 | 50,000 bracket sims
Features: 45 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 06 00:42 | BPI: Mar 06 00:43 | Odds: Mar 06 00:43 | Injuries: Mar 05 22:21 | Kaggle: Mar 06 00:36
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Houston: model 10.4% vs sharp 7.2% (+3.2%)
▲ Illinois: model 6.9% vs sharp 4.6% (+2.3%)
▲ Connecticut: model 5.9% vs sharp 4.8% (+1.1%)