24h Team                   Seed     Ens%         90% CI     LR%    Kal%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1  -   Arizona                   1   21.01%     20.3-21.7%   19.4%   15.0%   14.5%   15.5% |  100%   95%   82%   65%   52% 34.0% |   -6.0   -6.5   -5.5 | MODEL HIGHER
  2  -   Duke                      1   18.63%     18.0-19.3%   19.2%   21.0%   21.0%   19.8% |  100%   94%   79%   65%   47% 28.4% |   +2.4   +2.4   +1.1 | 
  3  -   Michigan                  1   11.41%     10.9-11.9%   17.7%   22.0%   22.0%   20.5% |  100%   90%   72%   54%   36% 20.8% |  +10.6  +10.6   +9.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4  -   Houston                   2    9.42%       8.9-9.9%    7.0%    7.0%    9.0%    7.9% |  100%   94%   76%   48%   30% 17.7% |   -2.4   -0.4   -1.5 | 
  5  -   Florida                   1    7.88%       7.4-8.3%    8.5%   13.0%   11.6%   10.9% |  100%   93%   74%   52%   29% 16.8% |   +5.1   +3.7   +3.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
  6  -   Illinois                  3    5.49%       5.1-5.9%    4.7%    5.0%    4.1%    4.2% |  100%   89%   68%   37%   22% 12.3% |   -0.5   -1.4   -1.2 | 
  7  -   Iowa St                   2    4.98%       4.6-5.3%    5.9%    4.0%    2.7%    3.6% |  100%   92%   72%   47%   25% 12.5% |   -1.0   -2.3   -1.4 | 
  8  -   Connecticut               2    4.25%       3.9-4.6%    1.8%    6.0%    4.9%    4.7% |  100%   88%   70%   46%   23%  9.0% |   +1.7   +0.6   +0.5 | 
  9  -   Purdue                    2    3.46%       3.2-3.8%    5.0%    3.0%    2.8%    2.2% |  100%   92%   68%   42%   17%  7.9% |   -0.5   -0.7   -1.3 | 
 10  -   Gonzaga                   3    2.44%       2.2-2.7%    1.3%    2.0%    1.6%    1.5% |  100%   91%   60%   34%   12%  4.9% |   -0.4   -0.8   -0.9 | 
 11  -   Alabama                   4    1.58%       1.4-1.8%    0.6%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   86%   54%   22%   11%  4.4% |     --   -0.5   -0.7 | 
 12  -   Michigan St               3    1.44%       1.2-1.6%    2.0%    3.0%    1.5%    1.8% |  100%   90%   50%   25%    9%  3.5% |   +1.6   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 13  -   Tennessee                 6    0.85%     0.70-1.00%    0.7%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   69%   43%   20%    7%  2.6% |     --   +0.2   +0.1 | ALIGNED
 14 ▲2   Arkansas                  5    0.84%     0.69-0.99%    0.5%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   74%   42%   12%    5%  2.1% |   +1.2   -0.0   +0.6 | 
 15 ▼1   Nebraska                  4    0.79%     0.65-0.94%    0.9%    1.0%    1.0%    0.9% |  100%   88%   46%   18%    7%  2.6% |     --   +0.2   +0.1 | 
 16 ▲1   St John's                 5    0.74%     0.60-0.88%    0.6%    2.0%    1.1%    1.5% |  100%   78%   39%   14%    6%  2.3% |   +1.3   +0.4   +0.7 | 
 17 ▼2   Louisville                6    0.68%     0.55-0.82%    0.4%    1.0%    0.5%    0.8% |  100%   72%   42%   18%    6%  1.7% |     --   -0.2   +0.1 | 
 18  -   Vanderbilt                4    0.63%     0.50-0.76%    1.2%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   79%   42%   14%    6%  2.2% |   +1.4   +0.2   +0.7 | 
 19 ▲2   Texas Tech                5    0.62%     0.49-0.75%    0.4%    1.0%    0.6%    0.8% |  100%   75%   43%   16%    6%  2.2% |     --   -0.0   +0.2 | 
 20  -   Virginia                  3    0.53%     0.41-0.65%    0.9%    1.0%    1.1%    1.2% |  100%   87%   42%   17%    6%  2.0% |     --   +0.6   +0.7 | 
 21 ▼2   Kansas                    4    0.48%     0.37-0.59%    0.4%    2.0%    0.5%    1.7% |  100%   84%   52%   16%    7%  1.9% |   +1.5   +0.0   +1.2 | 
 22  -   Wisconsin                 5    0.29%     0.21-0.38%    0.3%    2.0%    --      1.3% |  100%   74%   36%   10%    4%  1.1% |   +1.7     --   +1.0 | 
 23  -   BYU                       6    0.26%     0.18-0.35%    0.0%    2.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   66%   30%   11%    3%  0.8% |   +1.7   +0.0   +0.2 | 
 24  -   Kentucky                  7    0.24%     0.16-0.32%    0.0%    1.0%    0.3%    0.9% |  100%   69%   20%   10%    4%  1.1% |     --   +0.1   +0.6 | 
 25 ▲1   Utah St                   7    0.13%     0.07-0.19%    0.1%    --      --      0.3% |  100%   51%   17%    6%    2%  0.5% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 26 ▼1   St Mary's CA              7    0.10%     0.05-0.15%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   58%   15%    5%    2%  0.5% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 27  -   Villanova                 8    0.09%     0.04-0.14%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   54%   12%    5%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 28 ▲1   Clemson                   9    0.08%     0.04-0.13%    0.0%    1.0%    0.1%    0.3% |  100%   50%   13%    6%    2%  0.4% |     --   +0.0   +0.2 | 
 29 ▼1   Georgia                   8    0.07%     0.03-0.12%    0.0%    --      --      0.2% |  100%   51%   16%    6%    2%  0.5% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 30 ▲2   Miami FL                  7    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   59%   18%    6%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 31 ▼1   North Carolina            6    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    --      1.0%    0.7%    0.7% |  100%   60%   19%    5%    1%  0.3% |     --   +0.6   +0.6 | 
 32 ▼1   Ohio St                   8    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   44%    8%    3%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 33 ▲3   Iowa                      9    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.4% |  100%   56%    9%    4%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 34 ▼1   UCLA                      8    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.1%    1.0%    0.4%    0.6% |  100%   50%   12%    5%    1%  0.3% |     --   +0.4   +0.6 | 
 35  -   Santa Clara              11    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   31%   13%    4%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 36 ▲4   VCU                      11    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   40%   11%    2%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 37 ▲2   South Florida            11    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    0.0%    --      --      0.1% |  100%   28%    7%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 38 ▼4   St Louis                  9    0.03%     0.00-0.06%    0.0%    1.0%    0.3%    0.3% |  100%   49%   10%    4%    1%  0.2% |     --   +0.3   +0.2 | 
 39 ▲3   Texas                    11    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   34%    9%    3%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 40 ▼3   Texas A&M                10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      1.0%    --      0.4% |  100%   42%    8%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 41 ▲3   NC State                 10    0.02%     0.00-0.04%    0.0%    1.0%    0.2%    0.3% |  100%   49%   14%    5%    1%  0.1% |     --   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 42 ▼4   TCU                       9    0.02%     0.00-0.04%    0.0%    --      --      0.2% |  100%   46%    8%    2%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 43 ▼2   UCF                      10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   41%   10%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 44 ▲3   High Point               13    0.02%     0.00-0.04%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   21%    6%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.0 | 
 45 ▼2   Miami OH                 12    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   22%    4%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 46 ▼1   Akron                    12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      --      --      0.2% |  100%   26%    8%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 47 ▼1   McNeese St               12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --     99.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   25%    9%    2%    0%  0.1% |  +99.0     --   +0.1 | 
 48  -   SMU                      12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   26%   10%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973  |  10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 21 22:00 CET | BPI: Mar 21 22:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 21 22:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 21 01:05 CET

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Arizona: model 21.0% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.5%)
  ▲ Houston: model 9.4% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.5%)
  ▲ Illinois: model 5.5% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.2%)
  ▲ Iowa St: model 5.0% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.4%)
  ▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)