Team                   Seed   Model%         90% CI Kalshi%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1 Duke                      1   21.96%     21.7-22.3%   24.0%   21.0%   19.5% |  100%   96%   85%   72%   52% 34.8% |   +2.0   -1.0   -2.4 | ALIGNED
  2 Arizona                   1   18.00%     17.7-18.3%   14.0%   12.8%   14.4% |  100%   96%   85%   70%   49% 30.7% |   -4.0   -5.2   -3.6 | MODEL HIGHER
  3 Michigan                  1   15.33%     15.1-15.6%   20.0%   18.0%   19.5% |  100%   95%   84%   67%   45% 27.1% |   +4.7   +2.7   +4.2 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4 Houston                   2    9.81%      9.6-10.0%    7.0%    8.0%    7.8% |  100%   96%   81%   62%   34% 18.9% |   -2.8   -1.8   -2.0 | MODEL HIGHER
  5 Florida                   2    9.51%       9.3-9.7%   13.0%   11.3%    9.1% |  100%   94%   79%   60%   33% 18.4% |   +3.5   +1.8   -0.5 | 
  6 Illinois                  2    6.47%       6.3-6.6%    5.0%    4.3%    4.6% |  100%   95%   78%   56%   28% 14.0% |   -1.5   -2.2   -1.8 | 
  7 Connecticut               1    5.83%       5.7-6.0%    7.0%    5.7%    5.1% |  100%   95%   74%   49%   29% 13.4% |   +1.2   -0.1   -0.8 | ALIGNED
  8 Michigan St               2    2.34%       2.2-2.5%    2.0%    2.3%    1.9% |  100%   94%   68%   42%   17%  6.5% |   -0.3   -0.0   -0.5 | ALIGNED
  9 Purdue                    3    1.89%       1.8-2.0%    3.0%    3.1%    2.7% |  100%   92%   67%   33%   13%  5.4% |   +1.1   +1.2   +0.8 | 
 10 Gonzaga                   4    1.62%       1.5-1.7%    2.0%    1.8%    1.8% |   67%   58%   43%   16%    9%  4.1% |   +0.4   +0.2   +0.2 | ALIGNED
 11 Iowa St                   3    1.58%       1.5-1.7%    4.0%    2.8%    3.7% |  100%   89%   62%   28%   11%  4.5% |   +2.4   +1.2   +2.2 | 
 12 Alabama                   4    0.68%     0.62-0.74%    1.0%    0.8%    1.5% |   67%   58%   39%   13%    6%  2.1% |   +0.3   +0.1   +0.8 | 
 13 Virginia                  3    0.52%     0.47-0.58%    1.0%    1.0%    1.0% |  100%   94%   56%   20%    6%  1.9% |   +0.5   +0.5   +0.5 | 
 14 Kansas                    4    0.49%     0.44-0.55%    3.0%    1.9%    1.9% |   66%   58%   39%   11%    5%  1.8% |   +2.5   +1.4   +1.4 | 
 15 St John's                 4    0.46%     0.41-0.51%    2.0%    1.0%    1.5% |   67%   59%   38%   12%    5%  1.6% |   +1.5   +0.5   +1.0 | 
 16 Nebraska                  4    0.45%     0.40-0.49%    2.0%    1.0%    1.1% |   67%   58%   37%   12%    5%  1.5% |   +1.6   +0.6   +0.6 | 
 17 Louisville                6    0.44%     0.40-0.49%    1.0%    0.6%    1.0% |  100%   77%   48%   19%    6%  1.9% |   +0.6   +0.2   +0.6 | 
 18 Tennessee                 5    0.41%     0.36-0.45%    1.0%    0.7%    1.3% |  100%   84%   42%   11%    5%  1.5% |   +0.6   +0.3   +0.9 | 
 19 Vanderbilt                5    0.39%     0.35-0.44%    2.0%    0.5%    0.9% |  100%   85%   41%   12%    5%  1.4% |   +1.6   +0.1   +0.5 | 
 20 Arkansas                  5    0.36%     0.31-0.40%    2.0%    0.8%    1.5% |  100%   81%   39%   12%    4%  1.3% |   +1.6   +0.4   +1.2 | 
 21 Texas Tech                4    0.35%     0.31-0.39%    1.0%    2.0%    0.8% |   67%   61%   40%   11%    4%  1.4% |   +0.7   +1.7   +0.5 | 
 22 BYU                       6    0.13%     0.11-0.16%    1.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   66%   34%   10%    3%  0.7% |   +0.9   +0.2   +0.4 | 
 23 Kentucky                  7    0.11%     0.09-0.14%    1.0%    0.4%    1.0% |  100%   62%   17%    8%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9   +0.3   +0.8 | 
 24 North Carolina            6    0.11%     0.09-0.14%    1.0%    1.7%    0.7% |  100%   65%   31%    9%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9   +1.6   +0.6 | 
 25 Auburn                   10    0.10%     0.08-0.12%    1.0%    0.2%    0.2% |   66%   51%   14%    7%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.1 | 
 26 St Mary's CA              8    0.10%     0.08-0.13%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   66%   47%   11%    5%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9     --   +0.3 | 
 27 Villanova                 6    0.10%     0.08-0.13%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   59%   29%    8%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9     --   +0.2 | 
 28 St Louis                  8    0.05%     0.03-0.06%    1.0%    0.5%    0.5% |   67%   46%    8%    4%    1%  0.2% |   +0.9   +0.5   +0.5 | 
 29 UCLA                      9    0.04%     0.02-0.05%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |  100%   54%    9%    4%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 30 Wisconsin                 7    0.04%     0.02-0.05%    1.0%    --      0.8% |  100%   61%   16%    7%    2%  0.4% |   +1.0     --   +0.7 | 
 31 Georgia                   8    0.04%     0.03-0.06%    --      --      0.3% |   66%   42%    7%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 32 Clemson                   8    0.04%     0.03-0.06%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |   67%   44%    8%    3%    1%  0.3% |   +1.0   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 33 Utah St                   8    0.03%     0.02-0.05%    --      --      0.3% |   67%   41%    8%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 34 Iowa                      9    0.03%     0.01-0.04%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   46%    7%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.5 | 
 35 SMU                      10    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.3% |   67%   45%    9%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 36 Santa Clara              11    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   19%    9%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 37 VCU                      11    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   18%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 38 Texas A&M                11    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   50%   23%   11%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 39 Texas                    10    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   46%   10%    4%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 40 NC State                  8    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    0.6%    0.4% |   67%   41%    6%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0   +0.6   +0.4 | 
 41 Indiana                  11    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   21%    9%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 42 TCU                      10    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    --      --      0.2% |   67%   44%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 43 Ohio St                  10    0.01%     0.01-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   67%   46%    9%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 44 South Florida            12    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    --      --      0.1% |   67%   28%    8%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 45 UCF                       9    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   39%    5%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 46 Missouri                 10    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   66%   44%    8%    3%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 47 McNeese St               12    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    --      --      0.1% |   67%   27%    7%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
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Model: 70% LightGBM + 30% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53651  |  50,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 07 10:10 | BPI: Mar 07 10:10 | Odds: Mar 07 10:10 | Injuries: Mar 06 09:33 | Kaggle: Mar 07 00:35

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Duke: model 22.0% vs sharp 19.5% (+2.4%)
  ▲ Arizona: model 18.0% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.6%)
  ▲ Houston: model 9.8% vs sharp 7.8% (+2.0%)
  ▲ Illinois: model 6.5% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.8%)