Team                   Seed   Model%         90% CI Kalshi%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1 Duke                      1   23.45%     22.8-24.1%   23.0%   22.0%   19.6% |  100%   96%   85%   71%   52% 35.7% |   -0.4   -1.4   -3.9 | 
  2 Arizona                   1   17.36%     16.8-18.0%   14.0%   11.9%   14.4% |  100%   97%   85%   69%   48% 30.0% |   -3.4   -5.5   -3.0 | MODEL HIGHER
  3 Michigan                  1   15.45%     14.8-16.0%   19.0%   18.0%   19.5% |  100%   95%   84%   66%   46% 27.5% |   +3.6   +2.5   +4.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4 Florida                   2    9.95%      9.4-10.5%   13.0%   11.2%   10.1% |  100%   94%   80%   60%   33% 18.6% |   +3.0   +1.2   +0.2 | 
  5 Houston                   2    8.73%       8.3-9.2%    7.0%    8.0%    6.6% |  100%   96%   83%   62%   32% 17.5% |   -1.7   -0.7   -2.1 | 
  6 Illinois                  2    6.06%       5.7-6.5%    5.0%    4.3%    4.6% |  100%   95%   78%   55%   28% 13.4% |   -1.1   -1.8   -1.4 | 
  7 Connecticut               1    5.01%       4.7-5.4%    6.0%    6.2%    5.1% |  100%   95%   73%   47%   27% 12.3% |   +1.0   +1.2   +0.1 | 
  8 Michigan St               2    2.21%       2.0-2.5%    2.0%    2.3%    1.9% |  100%   94%   71%   43%   17%  6.3% |   -0.2   +0.1   -0.3 | ALIGNED
  9 Purdue                    3    2.18%       1.9-2.4%    3.0%    3.1%    2.7% |  100%   92%   66%   34%   14%  5.8% |   +0.8   +0.9   +0.5 | 
 10 Iowa St                   3    2.08%       1.8-2.3%    4.0%    2.9%    3.7% |  100%   91%   64%   31%   13%  5.6% |   +1.9   +0.8   +1.7 | 
 11 Gonzaga                   4    1.70%       1.5-1.9%    2.0%    1.8%    1.8% |   80%   70%   50%   19%   11%  4.7% |   +0.3   +0.1   +0.1 | ALIGNED
 12 Alabama                   4    0.72%     0.58-0.86%    1.0%    0.8%    1.4% |   79%   69%   43%   14%    7%  2.3% |   +0.3   +0.1   +0.7 | 
 13 Virginia                  3    0.56%     0.44-0.68%    1.0%    1.0%    1.0% |  100%   94%   54%   21%    6%  1.8% |   +0.4   +0.4   +0.4 | 
 14 Kansas                    4    0.52%     0.41-0.64%    3.0%    1.7%    1.9% |   80%   71%   46%   14%    6%  2.0% |   +2.5   +1.2   +1.4 | 
 15 Nebraska                  4    0.52%     0.40-0.64%    2.0%    1.2%    1.1% |   80%   71%   42%   14%    6%  1.9% |   +1.5   +0.7   +0.5 | 
 16 Louisville                6    0.50%     0.39-0.62%    1.0%    0.5%    1.0% |  100%   76%   46%   18%    6%  1.8% |   +0.5   +0.0   +0.5 | 
 17 Tennessee                 5    0.44%     0.34-0.55%    1.0%    1.3%    1.3% |   80%   67%   33%    9%    4%  1.2% |   +0.6   +0.9   +0.9 | 
 18 Texas Tech                4    0.43%     0.33-0.54%    1.0%    1.5%    0.8% |   81%   72%   43%   13%    5%  1.5% |   +0.6   +1.1   +0.4 | 
 19 Vanderbilt                5    0.35%     0.26-0.45%    2.0%    0.5%    0.9% |   80%   68%   32%    9%    4%  1.2% |   +1.7   +0.1   +0.5 | 
 20 Arkansas                  5    0.28%     0.19-0.37%    2.0%    0.8%    1.5% |   81%   66%   32%    9%    4%  1.0% |   +1.7   +0.5   +1.3 | 
 21 St John's                 5    0.27%     0.19-0.36%    2.0%    1.2%    1.4% |   80%   66%   33%   10%    4%  1.4% |   +1.7   +0.9   +1.2 | 
 22 BYU                       6    0.13%     0.07-0.19%    1.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   67%   33%   10%    3%  0.7% |   +0.9   +0.2   +0.4 | 
 23 Kentucky                  7    0.13%     0.07-0.19%    1.0%    0.4%    1.0% |  100%   61%   17%    8%    2%  0.6% |   +0.9   +0.3   +0.8 | 
 24 Wisconsin                 6    0.12%     0.07-0.18%    1.0%    --      0.8% |  100%   65%   34%   10%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9     --   +0.6 | 
 25 Villanova                 6    0.12%     0.07-0.18%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   61%   30%    9%    2%  0.6% |   +0.9     --   +0.2 | 
 26 St Mary's CA              8    0.08%     0.04-0.13%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   52%   11%    5%    2%  0.4% |   +0.9     --   +0.3 | 
 27 St Louis                  8    0.07%     0.03-0.12%    1.0%    0.5%    0.5% |   67%   53%    9%    4%    1%  0.3% |   +0.9   +0.4   +0.5 | 
 28 North Carolina            5    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    1.0%    1.7%    0.7% |   80%   58%   23%    5%    1%  0.4% |   +0.9   +1.6   +0.7 | 
 29 UCLA                      9    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |  100%   50%    8%    3%    1%  0.3% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 30 Georgia                   8    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    --      --      0.3% |   66%   49%    8%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 31 Texas                    10    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   57%   48%   11%    4%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 32 Clemson                   8    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |   66%   51%    9%    3%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 33 UCF                      10    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    1.0%    --      0.3% |   57%   48%    9%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 34 TCU                      10    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    --      --      0.2% |   57%   48%    9%    3%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 35 SMU                      10    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    1.0%    --      0.3% |   57%   48%   10%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 36 Auburn                   11    0.04%     0.01-0.07%    1.0%    0.2%    0.2% |   50%   27%   14%    4%    1%  0.3% |   +1.0   +0.2   +0.1 | 
 37 NC State                  8    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    1.0%    0.6%    0.4% |   67%   48%    8%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0   +0.6   +0.4 | 
 38 Ohio St                  10    0.03%     0.00-0.06%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   57%   49%   10%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 39 Utah St                   8    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    --      --      0.3% |   67%   50%   10%    3%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 40 Iowa                      9    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   46%    9%    3%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0     --   +0.5 | 
 41 Santa Clara              11    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   19%    9%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 42 Missouri                 10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   57%   48%    9%    3%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 43 Indiana                  11    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   51%   20%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 44 McNeese St               12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      --      0.1% |   66%   14%    3%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 45 Texas A&M                10    0.00%     0.00-0.00%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   57%   49%   11%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 46 New Mexico               11    0.00%     0.00-0.00%    --      --      --   |   51%   14%    5%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --     -- | 
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53845  |  10,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 07 21:30 CET | BPI: Mar 07 21:34 CET | Odds: Mar 07 21:34 CET | Injuries: Mar 07 21:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 07 00:35 CET

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Duke: model 23.4% vs sharp 19.6% (+3.9%)
  ▲ Arizona: model 17.4% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.0%)
  ▲ Houston: model 8.7% vs sharp 6.6% (+2.1%)
  ▲ Illinois: model 6.1% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.4%)