Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 22.25% 21.9-22.6% 23.0% 22.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 85% 72% 52% 34.8% | +0.8 -0.3 -2.7 |
2 Arizona 1 17.77% 17.5-18.0% 14.0% 12.2% 14.4% | 100% 96% 85% 69% 49% 30.4% | -3.8 -5.6 -3.4 | MODEL HIGHER
3 Michigan 1 15.25% 15.0-15.5% 20.0% 18.0% 19.5% | 100% 95% 83% 67% 45% 27.2% | +4.8 +2.7 +4.3 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Florida 2 10.12% 9.9-10.3% 13.0% 11.3% 9.1% | 100% 94% 79% 60% 34% 19.0% | +2.9 +1.2 -1.1 |
5 Houston 2 9.72% 9.5-9.9% 6.0% 8.0% 7.8% | 100% 96% 81% 62% 34% 18.7% | -3.7 -1.7 -1.9 | MODEL HIGHER
6 Illinois 2 6.34% 6.2-6.5% 5.0% 5.1% 4.6% | 100% 95% 78% 55% 28% 14.0% | -1.3 -1.2 -1.7 |
7 Connecticut 1 5.65% 5.5-5.8% 7.0% 6.2% 5.1% | 100% 94% 74% 50% 29% 13.6% | +1.4 +0.5 -0.6 | ALIGNED
8 Michigan St 2 2.43% 2.3-2.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.9% | 100% 94% 68% 42% 17% 6.8% | -0.4 -0.8 -0.5 |
9 Purdue 3 1.81% 1.7-1.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% | 100% 92% 67% 33% 13% 5.2% | +1.2 +1.3 +0.9 |
10 Iowa St 3 1.64% 1.5-1.7% 4.0% 2.8% 3.7% | 100% 89% 63% 29% 12% 4.6% | +2.4 +1.2 +2.1 |
11 Gonzaga 4 1.48% 1.4-1.6% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% | 66% 58% 43% 16% 9% 3.8% | +0.5 +0.3 +0.3 | ALIGNED
12 Alabama 4 0.61% 0.56-0.67% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 67% 58% 39% 13% 6% 2.1% | +0.4 +0.2 +0.8 |
13 Virginia 3 0.50% 0.45-0.55% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% | 100% 94% 56% 20% 6% 1.8% | +0.5 +0.5 +0.5 |
14 Louisville 6 0.49% 0.44-0.54% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% | 100% 78% 48% 20% 6% 1.8% | +0.5 +0.1 +0.5 |
15 Kansas 4 0.47% 0.42-0.52% 3.0% 1.9% 1.9% | 67% 58% 39% 11% 5% 1.7% | +2.5 +1.4 +1.4 |
16 St John's 4 0.47% 0.43-0.52% 2.0% 0.9% 1.5% | 67% 59% 38% 12% 5% 1.6% | +1.5 +0.4 +1.0 |
17 Tennessee 5 0.47% 0.42-0.52% 1.0% 2.9% 1.3% | 100% 84% 42% 11% 5% 1.6% | +0.5 +2.4 +0.8 |
18 Nebraska 4 0.43% 0.38-0.48% 2.0% 0.7% 1.1% | 67% 58% 36% 12% 5% 1.6% | +1.6 +0.3 +0.6 |
19 Arkansas 5 0.35% 0.31-0.40% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 100% 81% 39% 11% 4% 1.3% | +1.7 +0.5 +1.2 |
20 Vanderbilt 5 0.32% 0.28-0.36% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% | 100% 85% 41% 12% 4% 1.4% | +1.7 +0.2 +0.6 |
21 Texas Tech 4 0.32% 0.28-0.36% 1.0% 2.3% 0.8% | 67% 61% 40% 10% 4% 1.2% | +0.7 +2.0 +0.5 |
22 BYU 6 0.15% 0.12-0.18% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 66% 33% 10% 3% 0.7% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.4 |
23 Villanova 6 0.10% 0.08-0.13% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 59% 29% 8% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
24 Auburn 10 0.10% 0.08-0.12% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 67% 51% 14% 7% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.1 |
25 North Carolina 6 0.10% 0.08-0.12% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% | 100% 66% 32% 9% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +1.6 +0.6 |
26 St Mary's CA 8 0.09% 0.07-0.12% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 66% 46% 11% 5% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
27 Kentucky 7 0.09% 0.07-0.12% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% | 100% 62% 17% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.3 +0.9 |
28 Wisconsin 7 0.07% 0.05-0.09% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 100% 61% 17% 7% 2% 0.3% | +0.9 -- +0.7 |
29 UCLA 9 0.06% 0.04-0.08% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 54% 9% 4% 1% 0.2% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 |
30 Clemson 8 0.05% 0.03-0.06% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 67% 44% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 |
31 St Louis 8 0.04% 0.02-0.05% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 67% 46% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% | +1.0 +0.5 +0.5 |
32 Georgia 8 0.04% 0.02-0.05% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 43% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
33 Utah St 8 0.03% 0.02-0.04% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 42% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
34 Texas 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 46% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
35 Ohio St 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 67% 46% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
36 Santa Clara 11 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 20% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
37 SMU 10 0.02% 0.01-0.04% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 66% 45% 9% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
38 Iowa 9 0.01% 0.00-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 45% 7% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
39 NC State 8 0.01% 0.01-0.02% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 67% 41% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
40 Texas A&M 11 0.01% 0.00-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 50% 23% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
41 VCU 11 0.01% 0.00-0.01% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 17% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
42 Indiana 11 0.01% 0.01-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 20% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
43 San Diego St 11 0.01% 0.00-0.01% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 15% 6% 1% 0% 0.0% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
44 Missouri 10 0.01% 0.01-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 45% 8% 3% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
45 South Florida 12 0.01% 0.00-0.02% -- -- 0.1% | 67% 28% 8% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
46 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.01% -- -- 0.1% | 67% 27% 7% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Model: 70% LightGBM + 30% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53651 | 50,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 07 06:58 | BPI: Mar 07 06:58 | Odds: Mar 07 06:58 | Injuries: Mar 06 09:33 | Kaggle: Mar 07 00:35
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Duke: model 22.2% vs sharp 19.5% (+2.7%)
▲ Arizona: model 17.8% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.4%)
▲ Florida: model 10.1% vs sharp 9.1% (+1.1%)
▲ Houston: model 9.7% vs sharp 7.8% (+1.9%)
▲ Illinois: model 6.3% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.7%)