24h Team                   Seed     Ens%         90% CI     LR%    Kal%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1  -   Arizona                   1   21.35%     20.7-22.0%   21.3%   15.0%   14.5%   15.5% |  100%   95%   82%   65%   52% 34.5% |   -6.3   -6.9   -5.8 | MODEL HIGHER
  2  -   Duke                      1   17.13%     16.5-17.8%   16.1%   21.0%   21.0%   19.8% |  100%   94%   78%   63%   44% 26.7% |   +3.9   +3.9   +2.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
  3  -   Michigan                  1   11.90%     11.4-12.4%   17.3%   22.0%   22.0%   20.5% |  100%   90%   73%   55%   37% 21.4% |  +10.1  +10.1   +8.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4  -   Houston                   2    9.83%      9.3-10.3%    7.5%    7.0%    9.0%    7.9% |  100%   94%   76%   49%   31% 18.4% |   -2.8   -0.8   -1.9 | 
  5  -   Florida                   1    7.79%       7.3-8.2%    9.0%   13.0%   11.6%   10.9% |  100%   93%   73%   52%   28% 16.3% |   +5.2   +3.8   +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
  6 ▲1   Illinois                  3    5.06%       4.7-5.4%    4.5%    5.0%    4.1%    4.2% |  100%   86%   65%   34%   21% 11.5% |   -0.1   -1.0   -0.8 | 
  7 ▼1   Iowa St                   2    4.98%       4.6-5.3%    5.6%    4.0%    2.7%    3.6% |  100%   91%   72%   47%   25% 12.6% |   -1.0   -2.3   -1.4 | 
  8  -   Connecticut               2    4.35%       4.0-4.7%    2.1%    6.0%    4.9%    4.7% |  100%   88%   71%   45%   23%  9.2% |   +1.7   +0.6   +0.4 | 
  9  -   Purdue                    2    3.68%       3.4-4.0%    5.2%    3.0%    2.8%    2.2% |  100%   92%   69%   42%   17%  8.3% |   -0.7   -0.9   -1.5 | 
 10  -   Gonzaga                   3    2.63%       2.4-2.9%    1.6%    2.0%    1.6%    1.5% |  100%   91%   61%   34%   12%  5.2% |   -0.6   -1.0   -1.1 | 
 11  -   Alabama                   4    1.50%       1.3-1.7%    0.5%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   86%   54%   21%   10%  4.4% |     --   -0.4   -0.6 | 
 12  -   Michigan St               3    1.46%       1.3-1.7%    1.9%    3.0%    1.5%    1.8% |  100%   90%   49%   24%    9%  3.5% |   +1.5   +0.0   +0.3 | 
 13  -   Tennessee                 6    0.95%     0.79-1.11%    0.7%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   69%   43%   20%    7%  2.6% |     --   +0.1   -0.0 | ALIGNED
 14  -   Nebraska                  4    0.89%     0.74-1.05%    1.0%    1.0%    1.0%    0.9% |  100%   88%   49%   19%    7%  2.7% |     --   +0.1   -0.0 | ALIGNED
 15 ▲1   Arkansas                  5    0.76%     0.62-0.91%    0.6%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   72%   39%   11%    5%  2.0% |   +1.2   +0.0   +0.7 | 
 16 ▲2   Vanderbilt                4    0.73%     0.59-0.87%    1.1%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   79%   44%   14%    6%  2.4% |   +1.3   +0.1   +0.6 | 
 17  -   St John's                 5    0.73%     0.59-0.87%    0.6%    2.0%    1.1%    1.5% |  100%   76%   39%   13%    6%  2.2% |   +1.3   +0.4   +0.7 | 
 18 ▼3   Louisville                6    0.72%     0.58-0.86%    0.4%    1.0%    0.5%    0.8% |  100%   72%   42%   19%    6%  2.0% |     --   -0.2   +0.1 | 
 19 ▲1   Kansas                    4    0.68%     0.55-0.82%    0.5%    2.0%    0.5%    1.7% |  100%   84%   55%   18%    8%  2.3% |   +1.3   -0.2   +1.0 | 
 20 ▼1   Virginia                  3    0.54%     0.42-0.66%    1.0%    1.0%    1.1%    1.2% |  100%   87%   41%   17%    6%  2.0% |     --   +0.6   +0.7 | 
 21  -   Texas Tech                5    0.48%     0.37-0.60%    0.5%    1.0%    0.6%    0.8% |  100%   72%   39%   15%    5%  1.7% |     --   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 22  -   Wisconsin                 5    0.27%     0.19-0.36%    0.3%    2.0%    --      1.3% |  100%   74%   34%   10%    4%  1.0% |   +1.7     --   +1.0 | 
 23 ▲1   Kentucky                  7    0.25%     0.17-0.33%    0.1%    1.0%    0.3%    0.9% |  100%   68%   20%   10%    3%  1.1% |     --   +0.1   +0.6 | 
 24 ▼1   BYU                       6    0.24%     0.16-0.32%    0.1%    2.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   63%   28%   10%    2%  0.8% |   +1.8   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 25  -   St Mary's CA              7    0.13%     0.07-0.19%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   54%   14%    5%    2%  0.6% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 26 ▲2   Utah St                   7    0.10%     0.05-0.16%    0.1%    --      --      0.3% |  100%   49%   15%    5%    1%  0.4% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 27 ▼1   Villanova                 8    0.10%     0.05-0.15%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   57%   13%    5%    2%  0.4% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 28 ▼1   Georgia                   8    0.08%     0.04-0.13%    0.1%    --      --      0.2% |  100%   50%   15%    6%    2%  0.5% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 29 ▲2   Clemson                   9    0.08%     0.04-0.13%    0.0%    1.0%    0.1%    0.3% |  100%   52%   14%    7%    2%  0.5% |     --   +0.0   +0.2 | 
 30 ▼1   North Carolina            6    0.07%     0.03-0.12%    --      1.0%    0.7%    0.7% |  100%   60%   20%    5%    1%  0.3% |     --   +0.6   +0.6 | 
 31 ▼1   Ohio St                   8    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   49%   10%    4%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 32 ▲1   Miami FL                  7    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   54%   16%    5%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 33 ▲1   UCLA                      8    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.1%    1.0%    0.4%    0.6% |  100%   48%   12%    5%    1%  0.2% |     --   +0.4   +0.6 | 
 34 ▲1   St Louis                  9    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.0%    1.0%    0.3%    0.3% |  100%   50%   10%    4%    1%  0.2% |     --   +0.2   +0.2 | 
 35 ▲1   Santa Clara              11    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   31%   14%    4%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 36 ▼4   Iowa                      9    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.4% |  100%   51%    8%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 37 ▲10  Texas A&M                10    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.4% |  100%   46%    9%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 38 ▲1   VCU                      11    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   40%   12%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 39 ▼2   South Florida            11    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    0.0%    --      --      0.1% |  100%   28%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 40 ▲4   TCU                       9    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    0.1%    --      --      0.2% |  100%   43%    8%    2%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 41 ▼1   UCF                      10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   46%   11%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 42 ▲1   Texas                    11    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   37%   10%    3%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 43 ▼2   Miami OH                 12    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   24%    5%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 44 ▼6   NC State                 10    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    0.0%    1.0%    0.2%    0.3% |  100%   51%   15%    5%    1%  0.1% |     --   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 45 ▲5   Akron                    12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      --      --      0.2% |  100%   26%    8%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 46 ▼4   McNeese St               12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    0.0%   99.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   28%   10%    2%    0%  0.1% |  +99.0     --   +0.1 | 
 47 ▼2   High Point               13    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   21%    6%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 48 ▼2   SMU                      12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   28%   11%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973  |  10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 20 21:30 CET | BPI: Mar 20 21:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 20 21:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 20 01:05 CET

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Arizona: model 21.3% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.8%)
  ▲ Houston: model 9.8% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.9%)
  ▲ Iowa St: model 5.0% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.4%)
  ▲ Purdue: model 3.7% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.5%)
  ▲ Gonzaga: model 2.6% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)