24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.02% 20.3-21.7% 18.4% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 33.6% | -6.0 -6.5 -5.5 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 19.42% 18.8-20.1% 20.6% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 80% 66% 47% 29.2% | +1.6 +1.6 +0.3 |
3 - Michigan 1 10.85% 10.4-11.4% 16.8% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 72% 54% 36% 20.6% | +11.2 +11.2 +9.7 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 8.95% 8.5-9.4% 7.8% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 48% 30% 17.6% | -1.9 +0.1 -1.0 |
5 - Florida 1 7.84% 7.4-8.3% 7.7% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 73% 52% 29% 16.7% | +5.2 +3.8 +3.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 5.64% 5.2-6.0% 5.3% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 69% 37% 23% 12.6% | -0.6 -1.5 -1.4 |
7 - Iowa St 2 5.39% 5.0-5.8% 6.0% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 73% 48% 27% 13.5% | -1.4 -2.7 -1.8 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.29% 4.0-4.6% 2.1% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 71% 46% 23% 9.1% | +1.7 +0.6 +0.4 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.49% 3.2-3.8% 4.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 68% 42% 17% 7.8% | -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.63% 2.4-2.9% 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 5.0% | -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 |
11 - Michigan St 3 1.69% 1.5-1.9% 2.1% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 55% 27% 11% 4.0% | +1.3 -0.2 +0.1 | ALIGNED
12 - Alabama 4 1.50% 1.3-1.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 87% 53% 21% 10% 4.1% | -- -0.4 -0.6 |
13 ▲2 Nebraska 4 0.88% 0.73-1.04% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 50% 20% 7% 2.9% | -- +0.1 -0.0 | ALIGNED
14 - Tennessee 6 0.85% 0.70-1.00% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.7% | -- +0.2 +0.1 | ALIGNED
15 ▼2 Arkansas 5 0.80% 0.66-0.95% 0.6% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 44% 13% 6% 2.2% | +1.2 +0.0 +0.6 |
16 - St John's 5 0.77% 0.63-0.92% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 40% 14% 6% 2.4% | +1.2 +0.3 +0.7 |
17 - Vanderbilt 4 0.55% 0.43-0.67% 0.8% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 40% 13% 5% 2.0% | +1.5 +0.3 +0.8 |
18 ▲2 Virginia 3 0.46% 0.35-0.57% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 41% 17% 6% 1.9% | -- +0.6 +0.7 |
19 ▼1 Texas Tech 5 0.42% 0.32-0.53% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 73% 39% 14% 4% 1.4% | -- +0.2 +0.4 |
20 ▲1 Kansas 4 0.40% 0.30-0.50% 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 51% 15% 6% 1.7% | +1.6 +0.1 +1.3 |
21 ▼2 Louisville 6 0.39% 0.29-0.50% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 36% 15% 5% 1.2% | -- +0.1 +0.4 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.29% 0.21-0.38% 0.4% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 75% 37% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.25% 0.17-0.34% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 64% 29% 10% 3% 0.8% | +1.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.19% 0.12-0.26% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 70% 20% 9% 3% 0.9% | -- +0.1 +0.7 |
25 - Utah St 7 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 53% 18% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 - St Mary's CA 7 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 65% 16% 6% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 - Villanova 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 53% 11% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 ▲4 Iowa 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 57% 9% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
29 ▼1 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% -- 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 51% 14% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
30 ▼1 North Carolina 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 18% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
31 ▲2 UCLA 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 49% 12% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.3 +0.6 |
32 ▲2 Ohio St 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 43% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
33 ▼3 Georgia 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 16% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
34 ▼3 Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 58% 17% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
35 - Santa Clara 11 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
36 - St Louis 9 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
37 - South Florida 11 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 - Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 36% 10% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
39 - VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 11% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▲3 NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.04% -- 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 47% 13% 4% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
41 ▼1 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 - TCU 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 47% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 ▼2 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
44 - Texas A&M 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 35% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.4 |
45 ▲1 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 27% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
46 ▲2 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 - High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 23 23:30 CET | BPI: Mar 23 23:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 23 23:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 23 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.0% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.5%)
▲ Houston: model 8.9% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.0%)
▲ Illinois: model 5.6% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.4%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.4% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.8%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.6% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)