24h Team                   Seed     Ens%         90% CI     LR%    Kal%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1  -   Arizona                   1   21.16%     20.5-21.8%   19.2%   15.0%   14.5%   15.5% |  100%   95%   82%   65%   51% 33.8% |   -6.2   -6.7   -5.6 | MODEL HIGHER
  2  -   Duke                      1   18.74%     18.1-19.4%   19.9%   21.0%   21.0%   19.8% |  100%   94%   80%   66%   47% 28.5% |   +2.3   +2.3   +1.0 | 
  3  -   Michigan                  1   10.95%     10.4-11.5%   17.1%   22.0%   22.0%   20.5% |  100%   90%   72%   54%   36% 20.7% |  +11.1  +11.1   +9.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4  -   Houston                   2    9.03%       8.6-9.5%    7.7%    7.0%    9.0%    7.9% |  100%   94%   76%   48%   30% 17.5% |   -2.0   -0.0   -1.1 | 
  5  -   Florida                   1    7.83%       7.4-8.3%    7.6%   13.0%   11.6%   10.9% |  100%   93%   73%   52%   29% 16.6% |   +5.2   +3.8   +3.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
  6 ▲1   Illinois                  3    5.71%       5.3-6.1%    5.3%    5.0%    4.1%    4.2% |  100%   89%   69%   37%   23% 12.7% |   -0.7   -1.6   -1.5 | 
  7 ▼1   Iowa St                   2    5.38%       5.0-5.8%    6.1%    4.0%    2.7%    3.6% |  100%   92%   73%   48%   27% 13.4% |   -1.4   -2.7   -1.8 | 
  8  -   Connecticut               2    4.38%       4.0-4.7%    1.9%    6.0%    4.9%    4.7% |  100%   88%   71%   46%   23%  9.2% |   +1.6   +0.5   +0.3 | 
  9  -   Purdue                    2    3.59%       3.3-3.9%    4.7%    3.0%    2.8%    2.2% |  100%   92%   69%   42%   17%  8.0% |   -0.6   -0.8   -1.4 | 
 10  -   Gonzaga                   3    2.70%       2.4-3.0%    1.3%    2.0%    1.6%    1.5% |  100%   91%   61%   34%   12%  5.1% |   -0.7   -1.1   -1.2 | 
 11  -   Michigan St               3    1.71%       1.5-1.9%    2.0%    3.0%    1.5%    1.8% |  100%   90%   55%   27%   11%  4.0% |   +1.3   -0.2   +0.1 | ALIGNED
 12  -   Alabama                   4    1.35%       1.2-1.5%    0.7%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   87%   52%   21%   10%  3.8% |     --   -0.3   -0.5 | ALIGNED
 13 ▲1   Nebraska                  4    0.89%     0.74-1.05%    1.1%    1.0%    1.0%    0.9% |  100%   88%   50%   20%    7%  2.8% |     --   +0.1   -0.0 | ALIGNED
 14 ▼1   Tennessee                 6    0.88%     0.73-1.04%    0.8%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   69%   43%   20%    7%  2.8% |     --   +0.2   +0.0 | ALIGNED
 15 ▲1   St John's                 5    0.78%     0.64-0.93%    0.6%    2.0%    1.1%    1.5% |  100%   78%   41%   14%    7%  2.5% |   +1.2   +0.3   +0.7 | 
 16 ▼1   Arkansas                  5    0.75%     0.61-0.89%    0.4%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   74%   42%   12%    6%  2.2% |   +1.2   +0.1   +0.7 | 
 17 ▲1   Vanderbilt                4    0.62%     0.50-0.75%    0.8%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   79%   42%   13%    5%  2.1% |   +1.4   +0.2   +0.8 | 
 18 ▲2   Virginia                  3    0.47%     0.36-0.59%    0.7%    1.0%    1.1%    1.2% |  100%   87%   42%   17%    6%  2.0% |     --   +0.6   +0.7 | 
 19 ▼2   Texas Tech                5    0.44%     0.34-0.55%    0.3%    1.0%    0.6%    0.8% |  100%   73%   39%   14%    4%  1.5% |     --   +0.2   +0.4 | 
 20 ▼1   Louisville                6    0.41%     0.31-0.52%    0.2%    1.0%    0.5%    0.8% |  100%   72%   36%   15%    5%  1.2% |     --   +0.1   +0.4 | 
 21  -   Kansas                    4    0.41%     0.31-0.51%    0.3%    2.0%    0.5%    1.7% |  100%   84%   51%   15%    6%  1.7% |   +1.6   +0.1   +1.3 | 
 22  -   Wisconsin                 5    0.32%     0.23-0.41%    0.2%    2.0%    --      1.3% |  100%   75%   37%   10%    4%  1.1% |   +1.7     --   +1.0 | 
 23  -   BYU                       6    0.24%     0.16-0.32%    0.1%    2.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   63%   28%   10%    3%  0.8% |   +1.8   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 24  -   Kentucky                  7    0.22%     0.15-0.30%    0.1%    1.0%    0.3%    0.9% |  100%   70%   20%   10%    3%  1.0% |     --   +0.1   +0.6 | 
 25  -   Utah St                   7    0.12%     0.07-0.18%    0.1%    --      --      0.3% |  100%   52%   17%    6%    2%  0.5% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 26  -   St Mary's CA              7    0.12%     0.07-0.18%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   65%   16%    6%    2%  0.6% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 27  -   Villanova                 8    0.09%     0.04-0.14%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   53%   11%    5%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 28  -   Clemson                   9    0.08%     0.04-0.13%    --      1.0%    0.1%    0.3% |  100%   51%   14%    6%    2%  0.4% |     --   +0.0   +0.2 | 
 29 ▲2   Iowa                      9    0.07%     0.03-0.12%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.4% |  100%   55%    9%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 30  -   North Carolina            6    0.07%     0.03-0.12%    --      1.0%    0.7%    0.7% |  100%   62%   19%    5%    1%  0.3% |     --   +0.6   +0.6 | 
 31 ▲3   UCLA                      8    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    0.1%    1.0%    0.4%    0.6% |  100%   49%   12%    5%    1%  0.3% |     --   +0.3   +0.6 | 
 32 ▲1   Ohio St                   8    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   45%    9%    3%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 33 ▼4   Georgia                   8    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    --      --      --      0.2% |  100%   51%   16%    6%    2%  0.5% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 34 ▼2   Miami FL                  7    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   58%   17%    6%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 35 ▲1   Santa Clara              11    0.04%     0.01-0.07%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   31%   13%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 36 ▲2   St Louis                  9    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    0.0%    1.0%    0.3%    0.3% |  100%   49%   10%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --   +0.3   +0.2 | 
 37  -   South Florida            11    0.03%     0.00-0.06%    0.0%    --      --      0.1% |  100%   28%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 38 ▲2   Texas                    11    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   37%   10%    3%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 39  -   VCU                      11    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   38%   10%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 40 ▲4   NC State                 10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    0.0%    1.0%    0.2%    0.3% |  100%   48%   13%    4%    1%  0.1% |     --   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 41  -   UCF                      10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   42%   10%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 42 ▲1   TCU                       9    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      --      --      0.2% |  100%   47%    8%    2%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 43 ▼1   Miami OH                 12    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   22%    4%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 44 ▼9   Texas A&M                10    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.4% |  100%   35%    6%    2%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 45  -   Missouri                 10    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   30%    6%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 46  -   McNeese St               12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --     99.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   27%    9%    2%    0%  0.1% |  +99.0     --   +0.1 | 
 47  -   High Point               13    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   21%    6%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 48  -   SMU                      12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   26%   10%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973  |  10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 23 07:30 CET | BPI: Mar 23 07:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 23 07:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 23 01:05 CET

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Arizona: model 21.2% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.6%)
  ▲ Houston: model 9.0% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.1%)
  ▲ Illinois: model 5.7% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.5%)
  ▲ Iowa St: model 5.4% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.8%)
  ▲ Purdue: model 3.6% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.4%)
  ▲ Gonzaga: model 2.7% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.2%)