Team                   Seed   Model%         90% CI Kalshi%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1 Duke                      1   20.54%     20.2-20.8%   25.0%   22.0%   20.0% |  100%   96%   84%   70%   50% 33.0% |   +4.5   +1.5   -0.6 | 
  2 Arizona                   1   15.73%     15.5-16.0%   13.0%   13.0%   15.2% |  100%   96%   84%   68%   46% 27.9% |   -2.7   -2.7   -0.5 | 
  3 Michigan                  1   15.54%     15.3-15.8%   20.0%   19.0%   19.5% |  100%   95%   83%   66%   44% 27.0% |   +4.5   +3.5   +4.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4 Houston                   2   10.99%     10.8-11.2%    7.0%    8.0%    7.2% |  100%   96%   80%   61%   35% 20.0% |   -4.0   -3.0   -3.8 | MODEL HIGHER
  5 Florida                   2    9.58%       9.4-9.8%   13.0%   11.3%    9.5% |  100%   94%   78%   57%   32% 18.0% |   +3.4   +1.7   -0.0 | 
  6 Illinois                  2    7.22%       7.0-7.4%    5.0%    5.0%    4.6% |  100%   95%   77%   55%   29% 14.9% |   -2.2   -2.2   -2.6 | MODEL HIGHER
  7 Connecticut               1    5.75%       5.6-5.9%    7.0%    6.1%    4.8% |  100%   95%   75%   49%   29% 13.4% |   +1.3   +0.3   -1.0 | ALIGNED
  8 Michigan St               2    2.56%       2.4-2.7%    2.0%    1.9%    1.9% |  100%   94%   68%   42%   18%  7.0% |   -0.6   -0.7   -0.7 | 
  9 Purdue                    3    2.46%       2.3-2.6%    3.0%    3.1%    2.1% |  100%   92%   67%   35%   15%  6.3% |   +0.5   +0.6   -0.4 | ALIGNED
 10 Iowa St                   3    1.88%       1.8-2.0%    4.0%    2.8%    3.7% |  100%   89%   62%   30%   13%  5.1% |   +2.1   +0.9   +1.9 | 
 11 Gonzaga                   4    1.63%       1.5-1.7%    2.0%    2.2%    1.5% |   67%   59%   44%   17%   10%  4.3% |   +0.4   +0.6   -0.1 | ALIGNED
 12 Alabama                   4    0.66%     0.60-0.72%    1.0%    1.1%    1.1% |   67%   58%   40%   13%    6%  2.2% |   +0.3   +0.4   +0.5 | 
 13 St John's                 4    0.56%     0.50-0.61%    1.0%    1.2%    1.3% |   67%   59%   38%   12%    5%  1.7% |   +0.4   +0.6   +0.8 | 
 14 Louisville                6    0.53%     0.48-0.59%    1.0%    0.7%    0.9% |  100%   77%   47%   20%    6%  1.9% |   +0.5   +0.2   +0.4 | 
 15 Virginia                  3    0.51%     0.46-0.56%    1.0%    1.0%    1.0% |  100%   94%   55%   20%    6%  1.9% |   +0.5   +0.5   +0.5 | 
 16 Texas Tech                4    0.46%     0.41-0.51%    1.0%    1.4%    0.8% |   67%   60%   39%   11%    5%  1.5% |   +0.5   +0.9   +0.4 | 
 17 Tennessee                 5    0.46%     0.41-0.51%    1.0%    0.9%    1.2% |  100%   84%   40%   11%    5%  1.7% |   +0.5   +0.4   +0.8 | 
 18 Vanderbilt                5    0.44%     0.39-0.49%    2.0%    0.7%    0.9% |  100%   85%   42%   12%    5%  1.5% |   +1.6   +0.3   +0.5 | 
 19 Kansas                    4    0.43%     0.38-0.48%    3.0%    2.0%    2.2% |   67%   59%   39%   11%    5%  1.5% |   +2.6   +1.6   +1.8 | 
 20 Nebraska                  4    0.41%     0.36-0.46%    2.0%    1.5%    1.1% |   67%   57%   36%   11%    5%  1.5% |   +1.6   +1.1   +0.7 | 
 21 Arkansas                  5    0.41%     0.37-0.46%    2.0%    1.1%    1.4% |  100%   81%   39%   12%    4%  1.4% |   +1.6   +0.7   +1.0 | 
 22 BYU                       6    0.16%     0.13-0.19%    1.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   67%   33%   11%    3%  0.8% |   +0.8   +0.1   +0.4 | 
 23 North Carolina            6    0.13%     0.10-0.15%    1.0%    2.0%    1.1% |  100%   65%   32%   10%    2%  0.6% |   +0.9   +1.9   +0.9 | 
 24 Kentucky                  7    0.11%     0.08-0.13%    1.0%    0.7%    1.0% |  100%   62%   18%    8%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9   +0.6   +0.8 | 
 25 St Mary's CA              8    0.11%     0.09-0.14%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   47%   11%    5%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9     --   +0.3 | 
 26 Villanova                 6    0.11%     0.08-0.13%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   60%   30%    8%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9     --   +0.2 | 
 27 Auburn                   10    0.11%     0.09-0.14%    1.0%    0.2%    0.2% |   67%   51%   15%    7%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.1 | 
 28 Wisconsin                 7    0.10%     0.07-0.12%    1.0%    --      0.8% |  100%   60%   16%    7%    2%  0.4% |   +0.9     --   +0.7 | 
 29 UCLA                      9    0.07%     0.05-0.09%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |  100%   55%   10%    4%    1%  0.4% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 30 Georgia                   8    0.05%     0.04-0.07%    --      --      0.3% |   67%   43%    8%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 31 Utah St                   8    0.04%     0.02-0.05%    --      --      0.3% |   66%   42%    9%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 32 St Louis                  8    0.04%     0.03-0.06%    1.0%    0.5%    0.5% |   67%   45%    8%    3%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0   +0.5   +0.5 | 
 33 Clemson                   8    0.03%     0.02-0.04%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |   67%   43%    7%    3%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0   +0.2   +0.4 | 
 34 UCF                       9    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   39%    6%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 35 Indiana                  11    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   20%    9%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 36 Iowa                      9    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   44%    7%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.5 | 
 37 Texas                    10    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   47%   10%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 38 Ohio St                  10    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   67%   47%    9%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 39 SMU                      10    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.3% |   66%   45%   10%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 40 NC State                  8    0.01%     0.01-0.02%    1.0%    0.6%    0.4% |   67%   42%    6%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0   +0.6   +0.4 | 
 41 Texas A&M                11    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   50%   24%   11%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 42 Santa Clara              11    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   19%    9%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 43 TCU                      10    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    --      --      0.2% |   67%   44%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 44 Missouri                 10    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   66%   45%    9%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 45 VCU                      11    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   18%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 46 UC Irvine                14    0.00%     0.00-0.01%    --      --      0.2% |   66%   22%    4%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
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Model: 70% LightGBM + 30% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53618  |  50,000 bracket sims
Features: 45 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 06 06:02 | BPI: Mar 06 06:03 | Odds: Mar 06 06:03 | Injuries: Mar 05 22:21 | Kaggle: Mar 06 00:36

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Houston: model 11.0% vs sharp 7.2% (+3.8%)
  ▲ Illinois: model 7.2% vs sharp 4.6% (+2.6%)