24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.35% 20.7-22.0% 21.3% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.5% | -6.3 -6.9 -5.8 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 17.13% 16.5-17.8% 16.1% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 78% 63% 44% 26.7% | +3.9 +3.9 +2.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.90% 11.4-12.4% 17.3% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 73% 55% 37% 21.4% | +10.1 +10.1 +8.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.83% 9.3-10.3% 7.5% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 49% 31% 18.4% | -2.8 -0.8 -1.9 |
5 - Florida 1 7.79% 7.3-8.2% 9.0% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 73% 52% 28% 16.3% | +5.2 +3.8 +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 ▲1 Illinois 3 5.06% 4.7-5.4% 4.5% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 86% 65% 34% 21% 11.5% | -0.1 -1.0 -0.8 |
7 ▼1 Iowa St 2 4.98% 4.6-5.3% 5.6% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 91% 72% 47% 25% 12.6% | -1.0 -2.3 -1.4 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.35% 4.0-4.7% 2.1% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 71% 45% 23% 9.2% | +1.7 +0.6 +0.4 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.68% 3.4-4.0% 5.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 69% 42% 17% 8.3% | -0.7 -0.9 -1.5 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.63% 2.4-2.9% 1.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 61% 34% 12% 5.2% | -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.50% 1.3-1.7% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 54% 21% 10% 4.4% | -- -0.4 -0.6 |
12 - Michigan St 3 1.46% 1.3-1.7% 1.9% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 49% 24% 9% 3.5% | +1.5 +0.0 +0.3 |
13 - Tennessee 6 0.95% 0.79-1.11% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.1 -0.0 | ALIGNED
14 - Nebraska 4 0.89% 0.74-1.05% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 49% 19% 7% 2.7% | -- +0.1 -0.0 | ALIGNED
15 ▲1 Arkansas 5 0.76% 0.62-0.91% 0.6% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 72% 39% 11% 5% 2.0% | +1.2 +0.0 +0.7 |
16 ▲2 Vanderbilt 4 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 44% 14% 6% 2.4% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.6 |
17 - St John's 5 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 76% 39% 13% 6% 2.2% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.7 |
18 ▼3 Louisville 6 0.72% 0.58-0.86% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 19% 6% 2.0% | -- -0.2 +0.1 |
19 ▲1 Kansas 4 0.68% 0.55-0.82% 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 55% 18% 8% 2.3% | +1.3 -0.2 +1.0 |
20 ▼1 Virginia 3 0.54% 0.42-0.66% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 41% 17% 6% 2.0% | -- +0.6 +0.7 |
21 - Texas Tech 5 0.48% 0.37-0.60% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 72% 39% 15% 5% 1.7% | -- +0.1 +0.3 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.27% 0.19-0.36% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 74% 34% 10% 4% 1.0% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 ▲1 Kentucky 7 0.25% 0.17-0.33% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 68% 20% 10% 3% 1.1% | -- +0.1 +0.6 |
24 ▼1 BYU 6 0.24% 0.16-0.32% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 63% 28% 10% 2% 0.8% | +1.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
25 - St Mary's CA 7 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 54% 14% 5% 2% 0.6% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▲2 Utah St 7 0.10% 0.05-0.16% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 49% 15% 5% 1% 0.4% | -- -- +0.2 |
27 ▼1 Villanova 8 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 57% 13% 5% 2% 0.4% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 ▼1 Georgia 8 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.1% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 50% 15% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 ▲2 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 52% 14% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
30 ▼1 North Carolina 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% -- 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 20% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
31 ▼1 Ohio St 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 49% 10% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
32 ▲1 Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 54% 16% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
33 ▲1 UCLA 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 48% 12% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.4 +0.6 |
34 ▲1 St Louis 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 50% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.2 +0.2 |
35 ▲1 Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 14% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.1 |
36 ▼4 Iowa 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 51% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
37 ▲10 Texas A&M 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 46% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
38 ▲1 VCU 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 12% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
39 ▼2 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
40 ▲4 TCU 9 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.1% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 43% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 ▼1 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 46% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 ▲1 Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 37% 10% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 ▼2 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 24% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
44 ▼6 NC State 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 51% 15% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
45 ▲5 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
46 ▼4 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
47 ▼2 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
48 ▼2 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 28% 11% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 20 21:30 CET | BPI: Mar 20 21:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 20 21:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 20 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.3% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.8%)
▲ Houston: model 9.8% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.9%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.0% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.4%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.7% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.5%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.6% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)