Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 22.55% 22.2-22.9% 23.0% 21.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 86% 72% 53% 35.6% | +0.5 -1.6 -3.0 |
2 Arizona 1 17.78% 17.5-18.1% 14.0% 11.1% 14.4% | 100% 97% 85% 69% 48% 30.2% | -3.8 -6.7 -3.4 | MODEL HIGHER
3 Michigan 1 15.86% 15.6-16.1% 20.0% 18.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 84% 68% 47% 28.0% | +4.1 +2.1 +3.7 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Florida 2 9.84% 9.6-10.1% 13.0% 11.3% 9.1% | 100% 95% 79% 59% 33% 18.6% | +3.2 +1.5 -0.8 |
5 Houston 2 8.87% 8.7-9.1% 7.0% 8.0% 7.8% | 100% 96% 80% 60% 32% 17.3% | -1.9 -0.9 -1.1 |
6 Illinois 2 6.30% 6.1-6.5% 5.0% 4.3% 4.6% | 100% 95% 78% 55% 28% 13.6% | -1.3 -2.0 -1.7 |
7 Connecticut 1 5.54% 5.4-5.7% 7.0% 5.6% 5.1% | 100% 95% 75% 49% 29% 13.1% | +1.5 +0.1 -0.5 | ALIGNED
8 Michigan St 2 2.29% 2.2-2.4% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% | 100% 94% 69% 42% 17% 6.4% | -0.3 +0.0 -0.4 | ALIGNED
9 Purdue 3 1.83% 1.7-1.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% | 100% 92% 66% 34% 13% 5.3% | +1.2 +1.3 +0.9 |
10 Iowa St 3 1.70% 1.6-1.8% 4.0% 2.8% 3.7% | 100% 90% 62% 29% 12% 4.8% | +2.3 +1.1 +2.0 |
11 Gonzaga 4 1.61% 1.5-1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% | 67% 59% 43% 17% 10% 4.2% | +0.4 +0.2 +0.2 | ALIGNED
12 Kansas 4 0.60% 0.54-0.66% 3.0% 1.9% 1.9% | 67% 59% 39% 12% 6% 1.9% | +2.4 +1.3 +1.3 |
13 Alabama 4 0.57% 0.51-0.62% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 66% 57% 38% 12% 6% 2.0% | +0.4 +0.2 +0.9 |
14 Virginia 3 0.55% 0.50-0.61% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% | 100% 94% 56% 21% 7% 2.0% | +0.5 +0.5 +0.5 |
15 Tennessee 5 0.52% 0.47-0.57% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% | 100% 84% 43% 12% 6% 1.8% | +0.5 +0.1 +0.8 |
16 Nebraska 4 0.47% 0.42-0.52% 2.0% 1.0% 1.1% | 67% 59% 37% 12% 5% 1.6% | +1.5 +0.5 +0.6 |
17 Louisville 6 0.44% 0.40-0.49% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% | 100% 76% 47% 19% 6% 1.8% | +0.6 +0.2 +0.6 |
18 St John's 4 0.43% 0.38-0.48% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% | 67% 59% 37% 11% 5% 1.6% | +1.6 +0.6 +1.0 |
19 Texas Tech 4 0.42% 0.37-0.47% 1.0% 2.5% 0.8% | 66% 60% 38% 11% 5% 1.5% | +0.6 +2.1 +0.4 |
20 Vanderbilt 5 0.41% 0.37-0.46% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% | 100% 84% 41% 12% 5% 1.5% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.5 |
21 Arkansas 5 0.35% 0.30-0.39% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 100% 82% 41% 11% 4% 1.2% | +1.7 +0.5 +1.2 |
22 BYU 6 0.14% 0.12-0.17% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 68% 35% 11% 3% 0.7% | +0.9 +0.2 +0.4 |
23 North Carolina 6 0.12% 0.10-0.15% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% | 100% 65% 32% 9% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 +1.6 +0.6 |
24 St Mary's CA 8 0.10% 0.08-0.12% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 47% 10% 5% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
25 Villanova 6 0.09% 0.07-0.12% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 61% 30% 9% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
26 Kentucky 7 0.08% 0.06-0.10% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% | 100% 62% 17% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.3 +0.9 |
27 Auburn 10 0.07% 0.05-0.09% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 66% 49% 13% 6% 1% 0.4% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.1 |
28 UCLA 9 0.06% 0.04-0.07% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 51% 9% 4% 1% 0.2% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 |
29 Wisconsin 7 0.06% 0.04-0.08% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 100% 60% 16% 7% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.7 |
30 Clemson 8 0.05% 0.03-0.06% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 67% 43% 7% 3% 1% 0.2% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 |
31 Georgia 8 0.04% 0.02-0.05% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 43% 7% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
32 Iowa 9 0.04% 0.02-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 46% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
33 St Louis 8 0.03% 0.01-0.04% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 67% 46% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.5 +0.5 |
34 Ohio St 10 0.02% 0.01-0.04% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 67% 47% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
35 Texas 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 47% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
36 Missouri 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 45% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
37 NC State 8 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 66% 41% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
38 Utah St 8 0.02% 0.01-0.03% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 44% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
39 Texas A&M 11 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 50% 23% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
40 Santa Clara 11 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 19% 9% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
41 SMU 10 0.01% 0.00-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 66% 45% 9% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
42 TCU 10 0.01% 0.00-0.02% -- -- 0.2% | 67% 44% 8% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 VCU 11 0.01% 0.00-0.01% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 17% 8% 2% 0% 0.0% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
44 UCF 9 0.01% 0.00-0.01% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 38% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
45 South Florida 12 0.01% 0.00-0.02% -- -- 0.1% | 67% 27% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
46 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.01% -- -- 0.1% | 67% 27% 6% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53841 | 50,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 07 13:47 | BPI: Mar 07 13:48 | Odds: Mar 07 13:48 | Injuries: Mar 06 09:33 | Kaggle: Mar 07 00:35
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Duke: model 22.6% vs sharp 19.5% (+3.0%)
▲ Arizona: model 17.8% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.4%)
▲ Houston: model 8.9% vs sharp 7.8% (+1.1%)
▲ Illinois: model 6.3% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.7%)