Team                   Seed   Model%         90% CI Kalshi%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1 Duke                      1   23.55%     22.9-24.2%   23.0%   22.0%   19.5% |  100%   97%   85%   72%   53% 36.1% |   -0.5   -1.5   -4.0 | MODEL HIGHER
  2 Arizona                   1   18.14%     17.5-18.8%   15.0%   12.5%   14.4% |  100%   97%   85%   68%   48% 30.5% |   -3.1   -5.6   -3.8 | MODEL HIGHER
  3 Michigan                  1   16.70%     16.1-17.3%   19.0%   18.0%   19.5% |  100%   96%   84%   68%   47% 29.8% |   +2.3   +1.3   +2.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4 Florida                   2    8.53%       8.1-9.0%   17.0%   11.7%   10.4% |   80%   75%   64%   48%   28% 15.8% |   +8.5   +3.2   +1.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
  5 Houston                   2    8.02%       7.6-8.5%    7.0%    8.0%    6.6% |   80%   77%   67%   50%   28% 15.6% |   -1.0   -0.0   -1.4 | 
  6 Illinois                  2    5.39%       5.0-5.8%    5.0%    4.3%    4.6% |   81%   77%   63%   45%   24% 11.9% |   -0.4   -1.1   -0.8 | 
  7 Connecticut               2    3.71%       3.4-4.0%    6.0%    7.4%    5.1% |   79%   74%   60%   40%   20%  9.2% |   +2.3   +3.7   +1.4 | MARKETS HIGHER
  8 Iowa St                   3    2.41%       2.2-2.7%    4.0%    2.9%    3.7% |  100%   91%   64%   32%   13%  5.8% |   +1.6   +0.5   +1.3 | 
  9 Michigan St               2    2.24%       2.0-2.5%    2.0%    2.1%    1.9% |   80%   75%   56%   34%   15%  6.2% |   -0.2   -0.1   -0.4 | ALIGNED
 10 Gonzaga                   4    2.24%       2.0-2.5%    2.0%    1.8%    1.8% |   81%   71%   51%   22%   13%  6.0% |   -0.2   -0.4   -0.4 | ALIGNED
 11 Purdue                    3    1.78%       1.6-2.0%    3.0%    3.1%    2.7% |  100%   92%   65%   34%   12%  5.1% |   +1.2   +1.3   +0.9 | 
 12 Nebraska                  4    0.73%     0.60-0.87%    2.0%    1.1%    1.1% |   80%   71%   40%   15%    7%  2.4% |   +1.3   +0.4   +0.3 | 
 13 Kansas                    4    0.73%     0.59-0.87%    3.0%    1.7%    1.9% |   80%   70%   45%   16%    7%  2.5% |   +2.3   +1.0   +1.2 | 
 14 Alabama                   4    0.70%     0.56-0.84%    1.0%    0.8%    1.4% |   80%   70%   43%   16%    7%  2.5% |   +0.3   +0.1   +0.7 | 
 15 Louisville                6    0.70%     0.57-0.84%    1.0%    0.5%    1.0% |  100%   76%   47%   18%    7%  2.2% |   +0.3   -0.2   +0.3 | 
 16 Virginia                  3    0.63%     0.50-0.77%    1.0%    1.0%    1.0% |  100%   94%   54%   21%    6%  2.0% |   +0.4   +0.4   +0.4 | 
 17 Tennessee                 5    0.54%     0.42-0.66%    1.0%    0.6%    1.3% |   80%   66%   34%   11%    5%  1.8% |   +0.5   +0.1   +0.8 | 
 18 Texas Tech                4    0.48%     0.37-0.60%    1.0%    2.0%    0.8% |   79%   72%   42%   14%    6%  1.9% |   +0.5   +1.5   +0.3 | 
 19 St John's                 5    0.41%     0.31-0.52%    2.0%    1.0%    1.4% |   80%   66%   32%   12%    5%  1.5% |   +1.6   +0.6   +1.0 | 
 20 Vanderbilt                5    0.34%     0.25-0.44%    2.0%    0.5%    0.9% |   80%   67%   32%   11%    4%  1.3% |   +1.7   +0.2   +0.6 | 
 21 St Mary's CA              8    0.29%     0.20-0.38%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   52%   22%    9%    3%  1.0% |   +0.7     --   +0.1 | 
 22 Arkansas                  5    0.21%     0.14-0.29%    2.0%    0.8%    1.5% |   80%   64%   31%   10%    4%  0.9% |   +1.8   +0.6   +1.3 | 
 23 BYU                       6    0.19%     0.12-0.26%    1.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   66%   33%   11%    3%  0.9% |   +0.8   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 24 Utah St                   8    0.18%     0.11-0.25%    --      --      0.3% |   68%   50%   22%    8%    3%  0.7% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 25 Kentucky                  7    0.16%     0.10-0.23%    1.0%    0.4%    1.0% |  100%   62%   17%    8%    2%  0.5% |   +0.8   +0.2   +0.8 | 
 26 North Carolina            5    0.14%     0.08-0.20%    1.0%    1.7%    0.7% |   80%   58%   23%    6%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9   +1.6   +0.6 | 
 27 Wisconsin                 6    0.14%     0.08-0.20%    1.0%    --      0.8% |  100%   65%   35%   11%    3%  0.8% |   +0.9     --   +0.6 | 
 28 Georgia                   8    0.11%     0.06-0.17%    --      --      0.3% |   67%   50%   20%    8%    3%  0.5% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 29 St Louis                  8    0.09%     0.04-0.14%    1.0%    0.5%    0.5% |   66%   52%   21%    8%    3%  0.7% |   +0.9   +0.4   +0.4 | 
 30 Villanova                 6    0.09%     0.04-0.14%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   61%   30%    9%    3%  0.6% |   +0.9     --   +0.3 | 
 31 Clemson                   8    0.09%     0.04-0.14%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |   67%   51%   20%    8%    3%  0.6% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 32 NC State                  8    0.08%     0.04-0.13%    1.0%    0.6%    0.4% |   66%   48%   19%    7%    2%  0.4% |   +0.9   +0.5   +0.3 | 
 33 Auburn                   11    0.07%     0.03-0.12%    1.0%    0.2%    0.2% |   49%   26%   13%    4%    1%  0.2% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.1 | 
 34 UCLA                      9    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |  100%   50%    7%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0   +0.2   +0.4 | 
 35 UCF                      10    0.03%     0.00-0.06%    1.0%    --      0.3% |   56%   48%   10%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 36 Indiana                  11    0.02%     0.00-0.04%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   51%   20%    8%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 37 Ohio St                  10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   57%   49%   11%    4%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 38 SMU                      10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    1.0%    --      0.3% |   58%   49%    9%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 39 Texas A&M                10    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   58%   49%   11%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 40 Texas                    10    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   57%   48%   11%    4%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 41 Iowa                      9    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   47%    6%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.5 | 
 42 South Florida            12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      --      0.1% |   66%   17%    5%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 43 New Mexico               11    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      --      --   |   50%   14%    5%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --     -- | 
 44 Missouri                 10    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   57%   48%    9%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 45 San Diego St             11    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   14%    6%    1%    0%  0.0% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 46 Santa Clara              11    0.00%     0.00-0.00%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   49%   19%    9%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53845  |  10,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 08 00:00 CET | BPI: Mar 08 00:04 CET | Odds: Mar 08 00:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 08 00:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 07 00:35 CET

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Duke: model 23.5% vs sharp 19.5% (+4.0%)
  ▲ Arizona: model 18.1% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.8%)
  ▲ Houston: model 8.0% vs sharp 6.6% (+1.4%)