24h Team                   Seed     Ens%         90% CI     LR%    Kal%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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  1  -   Arizona                   1   21.74%     21.1-22.4%   20.0%   15.0%   14.5%   15.5% |  100%   95%   82%   65%   52% 35.1% |   -6.7   -7.2   -6.2 | MODEL HIGHER
  2  -   Duke                      1   16.70%     16.1-17.3%   17.2%   21.0%   21.0%   19.8% |  100%   94%   78%   63%   44% 26.0% |   +4.3   +4.3   +3.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
  3  -   Michigan                  1   11.66%     11.1-12.2%   17.4%   22.0%   22.0%   20.5% |  100%   90%   71%   54%   36% 21.1% |  +10.3  +10.3   +8.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4  -   Houston                   2    9.66%      9.2-10.2%    7.0%    7.0%    9.0%    7.9% |  100%   94%   75%   48%   30% 18.0% |   -2.7   -0.7   -1.8 | 
  5  -   Florida                   1    7.97%       7.5-8.4%    9.2%   13.0%   11.6%   10.9% |  100%   93%   74%   53%   29% 16.5% |   +5.0   +3.6   +2.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
  6 ▲1   Iowa St                   2    5.18%       4.8-5.5%    5.9%    4.0%    2.7%    3.6% |  100%   92%   72%   48%   26% 13.1% |   -1.2   -2.5   -1.6 | 
  7 ▼1   Illinois                  3    4.99%       4.6-5.3%    5.1%    5.0%    4.1%    4.2% |  100%   85%   64%   34%   20% 11.3% |   +0.0   -0.9   -0.7 | 
  8  -   Connecticut               2    4.38%       4.0-4.7%    2.1%    6.0%    4.9%    4.7% |  100%   88%   71%   45%   23%  9.2% |   +1.6   +0.5   +0.3 | 
  9  -   Purdue                    2    3.46%       3.2-3.8%    4.9%    3.0%    2.8%    2.2% |  100%   91%   69%   42%   17%  8.0% |   -0.5   -0.7   -1.3 | 
 10  -   Gonzaga                   3    2.76%       2.5-3.0%    1.3%    2.0%    1.6%    1.5% |  100%   91%   60%   34%   12%  5.3% |   -0.8   -1.2   -1.2 | 
 11  -   Alabama                   4    1.50%       1.3-1.7%    0.4%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   86%   53%   21%   10%  4.2% |     --   -0.4   -0.6 | 
 12  -   Michigan St               3    1.47%       1.3-1.7%    2.2%    3.0%    1.5%    1.8% |  100%   90%   49%   24%   10%  3.6% |   +1.5   +0.0   +0.3 | 
 13 ▲2   Nebraska                  4    0.92%     0.77-1.08%    1.0%    1.0%    1.0%    0.9% |  100%   88%   48%   19%    7%  2.8% |     --   +0.1   -0.1 | ALIGNED
 14  -   Tennessee                 6    0.87%     0.72-1.03%    0.7%    1.0%    1.1%    0.9% |  100%   68%   43%   19%    7%  2.5% |     --   +0.2   +0.0 | ALIGNED
 15 ▲2   Louisville                6    0.86%     0.71-1.01%    0.4%    1.0%    0.5%    0.8% |  100%   72%   42%   20%    7%  2.2% |     --   -0.4   -0.1 | ALIGNED
 16 ▼3   Arkansas                  5    0.84%     0.69-0.99%    0.7%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   73%   40%   12%    5%  2.1% |   +1.2   -0.0   +0.6 | 
 17 ▲1   St John's                 5    0.78%     0.64-0.92%    0.6%    2.0%    1.1%    1.5% |  100%   76%   39%   13%    6%  2.4% |   +1.2   +0.3   +0.7 | 
 18 ▼2   Vanderbilt                4    0.72%     0.58-0.86%    1.1%    2.0%    0.8%    1.4% |  100%   79%   44%   14%    6%  2.3% |   +1.3   +0.1   +0.7 | 
 19 ▲1   Kansas                    4    0.56%     0.44-0.68%    0.4%    2.0%    0.5%    1.7% |  100%   83%   52%   16%    7%  2.1% |   +1.4   -0.1   +1.1 | 
 20 ▼1   Virginia                  3    0.50%     0.39-0.62%    1.1%    1.0%    1.1%    1.2% |  100%   87%   41%   17%    6%  1.9% |     --   +0.6   +0.7 | 
 21  -   Texas Tech                5    0.46%     0.35-0.58%    0.4%    1.0%    0.6%    0.8% |  100%   72%   40%   14%    5%  1.5% |     --   +0.1   +0.4 | 
 22  -   Wisconsin                 5    0.30%     0.21-0.39%    0.2%    2.0%    --      1.3% |  100%   73%   36%   10%    4%  1.1% |   +1.7     --   +1.0 | 
 23  -   BYU                       6    0.29%     0.21-0.38%    0.1%    2.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   66%   30%   11%    3%  0.9% |   +1.7   +0.0   +0.2 | 
 24 ▲7   Kentucky                  7    0.19%     0.12-0.26%    0.1%    1.0%    0.3%    0.9% |  100%   68%   20%    9%    3%  1.0% |     --   +0.1   +0.7 | 
 25 ▼1   St Mary's CA              7    0.17%     0.11-0.24%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   66%   17%    7%    2%  0.8% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 26  -   Georgia                   8    0.16%     0.10-0.23%    0.0%    --      --      0.2% |  100%   57%   18%    7%    3%  0.8% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 27 ▲10  Villanova                 8    0.14%     0.08-0.20%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   59%   13%    6%    2%  0.4% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 28  -   North Carolina            6    0.12%     0.07-0.18%    0.0%    1.0%    0.7%    0.7% |  100%   63%   22%    6%    2%  0.5% |     --   +0.6   +0.6 | 
 29 ▼2   Utah St                   7    0.10%     0.05-0.16%    0.1%    --      --      0.3% |  100%   50%   16%    6%    1%  0.4% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 30 ▼1   Clemson                   9    0.09%     0.04-0.14%    0.0%    1.0%    0.1%    0.3% |  100%   54%   15%    7%    2%  0.5% |     --   +0.0   +0.2 | 
 31 ▼6   Ohio St                   8    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   49%    9%    4%    1%  0.3% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 32 ▼2   UCLA                      8    0.06%     0.02-0.10%    0.1%    1.0%    0.4%    0.6% |  100%   46%   11%    5%    1%  0.2% |     --   +0.3   +0.6 | 
 33 ▼1   Miami FL                  7    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   52%   16%    5%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.4 | 
 34 ▲5   Santa Clara              11    0.05%     0.02-0.09%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   32%   14%    4%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 35 ▼1   St Louis                  9    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    0.0%    1.0%    0.3%    0.3% |  100%   43%    9%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --   +0.3   +0.2 | 
 36 ▼1   Iowa                      9    0.04%     0.01-0.08%    0.1%    1.0%    --      0.4% |  100%   51%    8%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 37 ▲6   South Florida            11    0.03%     0.01-0.06%    0.0%    --      --      0.1% |  100%   28%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 38  -   NC State                 10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      1.0%    0.2%    0.3% |  100%   50%   14%    5%    1%  0.1% |     --   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 39 ▲2   UCF                      10    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   48%   11%    3%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 40 ▼7   VCU                      11    0.02%     0.00-0.05%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   37%   11%    2%    1%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 41 ▲7   Miami OH                 12    0.02%     0.00-0.04%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   24%    5%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 42 ▲3   McNeese St               12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --     99.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   28%   10%    2%    0%  0.1% |  +99.0     --   +0.1 | 
 43 ▲3   Akron                    12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    0.0%    --      --      0.2% |  100%   27%    8%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 44 ▼4   Texas                    11    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    0.0%    1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   34%    9%    3%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 45 ▲2   High Point               13    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      1.0%    --      0.1% |  100%   21%    6%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
 46 ▼4   SMU                      12    0.01%     0.00-0.03%    --      1.0%    --      0.2% |  100%   27%   10%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973  |  10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 20 07:00 CET | BPI: Mar 20 07:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 20 07:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 20 01:05 CET

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Arizona: model 21.7% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.2%)
  ▲ Houston: model 9.7% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.8%)
  ▲ Iowa St: model 5.2% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.6%)
  ▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)
  ▲ Gonzaga: model 2.8% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.2%)