Team                   Seed   Model%         90% CI Kalshi%   Poly%  Sharp% |   R64   R32   S16    E8    F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1 Duke                      1   20.73%     20.4-21.0%   25.0%   21.0%   20.0% |  100%   96%   84%   70%   50% 33.1% |   +4.3   +0.3   -0.7 | 
  2 Arizona                   1   16.25%     16.0-16.5%   14.0%   11.1%   15.2% |  100%   96%   84%   68%   46% 28.4% |   -2.2   -5.2   -1.0 | MODEL HIGHER
  3 Michigan                  1   15.81%     15.5-16.1%   20.0%   19.0%   19.5% |  100%   95%   83%   66%   44% 27.3% |   +4.2   +3.2   +3.7 | MARKETS HIGHER
  4 Houston                   2    9.95%      9.7-10.2%    7.0%    8.0%    7.2% |  100%   96%   80%   61%   34% 19.0% |   -2.9   -2.0   -2.8 | MODEL HIGHER
  5 Florida                   2    9.85%      9.6-10.1%   13.0%   11.4%    9.5% |  100%   94%   78%   58%   33% 18.4% |   +3.1   +1.6   -0.3 | 
  6 Illinois                  2    7.39%       7.2-7.6%    5.0%    5.1%    4.6% |  100%   95%   77%   55%   29% 15.1% |   -2.4   -2.3   -2.7 | MODEL HIGHER
  7 Connecticut               1    5.67%       5.5-5.8%    7.0%    7.4%    4.8% |  100%   94%   75%   49%   29% 13.3% |   +1.3   +1.7   -0.9 | 
  8 Purdue                    3    2.33%       2.2-2.4%    3.0%    3.1%    2.1% |  100%   91%   66%   34%   14%  6.0% |   +0.7   +0.8   -0.2 | ALIGNED
  9 Michigan St               2    2.25%       2.1-2.4%    2.0%    1.6%    1.9% |  100%   94%   68%   41%   17%  6.6% |   -0.2   -0.6   -0.4 | ALIGNED
 10 Iowa St                   3    1.92%       1.8-2.0%    4.0%    2.9%    3.7% |  100%   89%   62%   30%   12%  5.0% |   +2.1   +1.0   +1.8 | 
 11 Gonzaga                   4    1.67%       1.6-1.8%    2.0%    1.9%    1.5% |   66%   58%   43%   17%   10%  4.1% |   +0.3   +0.2   -0.1 | ALIGNED
 12 Alabama                   4    0.76%     0.70-0.83%    1.0%    0.8%    1.1% |   66%   58%   39%   14%    6%  2.4% |   +0.2   +0.0   +0.4 | 
 13 Louisville                6    0.54%     0.49-0.59%    1.0%    0.8%    0.9% |  100%   77%   47%   19%    6%  2.0% |   +0.5   +0.3   +0.4 | 
 14 Tennessee                 5    0.53%     0.48-0.58%    1.0%    1.0%    1.2% |  100%   83%   41%   12%    5%  1.8% |   +0.5   +0.5   +0.7 | 
 15 Virginia                  3    0.52%     0.47-0.58%    1.0%    0.9%    1.0% |  100%   94%   56%   21%    6%  2.0% |   +0.5   +0.4   +0.5 | 
 16 St John's                 4    0.49%     0.44-0.54%    1.0%    1.0%    1.3% |   67%   59%   38%   12%    5%  1.6% |   +0.5   +0.5   +0.8 | 
 17 Kansas                    4    0.46%     0.41-0.51%    3.0%    2.0%    2.2% |   67%   58%   39%   11%    5%  1.6% |   +2.5   +1.5   +1.8 | 
 18 Texas Tech                4    0.43%     0.38-0.47%    1.0%    1.4%    0.8% |   67%   61%   39%   11%    5%  1.6% |   +0.6   +1.0   +0.4 | 
 19 Arkansas                  5    0.39%     0.34-0.43%    2.0%    1.1%    1.4% |  100%   81%   39%   12%    4%  1.4% |   +1.6   +0.7   +1.0 | 
 20 Nebraska                  4    0.39%     0.35-0.44%    2.0%    1.3%    1.1% |   67%   58%   36%   11%    4%  1.4% |   +1.6   +0.9   +0.7 | 
 21 Vanderbilt                5    0.37%     0.32-0.41%    2.0%    0.8%    0.9% |  100%   84%   42%   12%    5%  1.4% |   +1.6   +0.4   +0.5 | 
 22 BYU                       6    0.18%     0.15-0.22%    1.0%    0.3%    0.5% |  100%   67%   34%   11%    3%  0.8% |   +0.8   +0.1   +0.4 | 
 23 St Mary's CA              8    0.13%     0.10-0.15%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   47%   11%    5%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9     --   +0.3 | 
 24 North Carolina            6    0.13%     0.10-0.15%    1.0%    2.1%    1.1% |  100%   65%   32%   10%    2%  0.6% |   +0.9   +2.0   +0.9 | 
 25 Auburn                   10    0.13%     0.11-0.16%    1.0%    0.2%    0.2% |   67%   51%   15%    7%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.0 | 
 26 Kentucky                  7    0.10%     0.07-0.12%    1.0%    0.6%    1.0% |  100%   62%   18%    8%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9   +0.5   +0.9 | 
 27 Villanova                 6    0.09%     0.07-0.11%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   60%   30%    8%    2%  0.5% |   +0.9     --   +0.3 | 
 28 Wisconsin                 7    0.08%     0.06-0.10%    1.0%    --      0.8% |  100%   60%   16%    7%    2%  0.3% |   +0.9     --   +0.7 | 
 29 St Louis                  8    0.05%     0.03-0.07%    1.0%    0.5%    0.5% |   67%   46%    8%    3%    1%  0.3% |   +0.9   +0.5   +0.5 | 
 30 UCLA                      9    0.05%     0.04-0.07%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |  100%   54%   10%    4%    1%  0.3% |   +0.9   +0.1   +0.3 | 
 31 Georgia                   8    0.05%     0.04-0.07%    --      --      0.3% |   66%   42%    8%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 32 Clemson                   8    0.04%     0.03-0.06%    1.0%    0.2%    0.4% |   67%   43%    7%    3%    1%  0.2% |   +1.0   +0.2   +0.3 | 
 33 Texas A&M                11    0.03%     0.02-0.04%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   50%   23%   11%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 34 Santa Clara              11    0.03%     0.02-0.05%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   19%    9%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.1 | 
 35 Texas                    10    0.03%     0.01-0.04%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   66%   47%   10%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 36 Utah St                   8    0.03%     0.02-0.04%    --      --      0.3% |   67%   42%    9%    3%    1%  0.2% |     --     --   +0.3 | 
 37 NC State                  8    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    0.6%    0.4% |   67%   41%    6%    2%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0   +0.6   +0.4 | 
 38 Ohio St                  10    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   66%   46%    9%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 39 Missouri                 10    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.4% |   67%   45%    8%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.4 | 
 40 Iowa                      9    0.02%     0.01-0.03%    1.0%    --      0.5% |  100%   47%    8%    3%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.5 | 
 41 Indiana                  11    0.01%     0.01-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   20%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 42 SMU                      10    0.01%     0.00-0.02%    1.0%    --      0.3% |   67%   46%   10%    4%    1%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 43 VCU                      11    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    1.0%    --      0.2% |   50%   18%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.2 | 
 44 New Mexico               11    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    --      --      --   |   50%   14%    5%    1%    0%  0.0% |     --     --     -- | 
 45 TCU                      10    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    --      --      0.2% |   67%   44%    8%    2%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.2 | 
 46 UCF                       9    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    1.0%    --      0.3% |  100%   39%    6%    2%    0%  0.1% |   +1.0     --   +0.3 | 
 47 South Florida            12    0.01%     0.00-0.01%    --      --      0.1% |   66%   28%    8%    1%    0%  0.1% |     --     --   +0.1 | 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Model: 70% LightGBM + 30% KenPom LR  |  LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53618  |  50,000 bracket sims
Features: 45 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 06 15:02 | BPI: Mar 06 15:03 | Odds: Mar 06 15:03 | Injuries: Mar 06 09:33 | Kaggle: Mar 06 00:36

Value picks (model > market):
  ▲ Arizona: model 16.2% vs sharp 15.2% (+1.0%)
  ▲ Houston: model 10.0% vs sharp 7.2% (+2.8%)
  ▲ Illinois: model 7.4% vs sharp 4.6% (+2.7%)