Team Model% InjAdj% Elo% Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | K-Sim P-Sim S-Sim | Signal -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Duke 24.14% 24.62% 10.47% 24.0% 21.0% 20.0% | -0.6 -3.6 -4.6 | SIM HIGHER 2 Michigan 21.04% 19.43% 10.75% 22.0% 19.0% 19.8% | +2.6 -0.4 +0.3 | ALIGNED 3 Arizona 17.45% 18.62% 13.40% 15.0% 12.6% 14.9% | -3.6 -6.0 -3.7 | SIM HIGHER 4 Florida 10.14% 10.88% 7.51% 12.0% 10.7% 9.6% | +1.1 -0.2 -1.3 | 5 Houston 5.16% 5.27% 9.54% 7.0% 8.0% 7.2% | +1.7 +2.7 +1.9 | MARKETS HIGHER 6 Illinois 4.59% 4.12% 3.23% 5.0% 4.2% 4.6% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.5 | 7 Michigan St. 3.07% 2.77% 0.00% 2.0% 3.2% 1.9% | -0.8 +0.4 -0.9 | 8 Connecticut 2.17% 2.43% 7.58% 7.0% 6.8% 4.8% | +4.6 +4.4 +2.4 | MARKETS HIGHER 9 Purdue 2.44% 2.38% 4.76% 3.0% 3.5% 2.1% | +0.6 +1.1 -0.3 | ALIGNED 10 Iowa St. 1.55% 1.24% 0.00% 4.0% 2.8% 3.7% | +2.8 +1.6 +2.5 | MARKETS HIGHER 11 Gonzaga 1.05% 1.12% 2.70% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% | +0.9 +0.6 +0.4 | ALIGNED 12 Nebraska 1.11% 1.12% 1.89% 2.0% 0.5% 1.1% | +0.9 -0.6 -0.1 | ALIGNED 13 Tennessee 0.79% 0.88% 1.30% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% | +0.1 +0.1 +0.3 | ALIGNED 14 Arkansas 0.69% 0.70% 0.63% 2.0% 2.1% 1.4% | +1.3 +1.4 +0.7 | 15 Texas Tech 0.89% 0.66% 1.07% 1.0% 1.6% 0.8% | +0.3 +0.9 +0.1 | ALIGNED 16 Virginia 0.47% 0.61% 1.33% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% | +0.4 +0.5 +0.4 | ALIGNED 17 Kansas 0.57% 0.53% 1.58% 3.0% 1.9% 2.2% | +2.5 +1.4 +1.7 | MARKETS HIGHER 18 Alabama 0.43% 0.48% 1.39% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% | +0.5 +0.6 +0.6 | 19 Vanderbilt 0.46% 0.46% 1.40% 2.0% 0.6% 0.9% | +1.5 +0.1 +0.4 | ALIGNED 20 Louisville 0.36% 0.33% 0.85% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% | +0.7 +0.5 +0.6 | 21 Saint Mary's 0.13% 0.21% 0.00% 1.0% -- 0.4% | +0.8 -- +0.2 | ALIGNED 22 Wisconsin 0.15% 0.13% 0.45% 1.0% -- 0.8% | +0.9 -- +0.6 | 23 North Carolina 0.11% 0.10% 0.33% 1.0% 2.1% 1.1% | +0.9 +2.0 +1.0 | 24 St. John's 0.15% 0.10% 0.00% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% | +0.9 +1.1 +1.2 | 25 Georgia 0.07% 0.10% 0.92% -- -- 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 | 26 Texas 0.07% 0.07% 0.52% 1.0% -- 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.3 | 27 Iowa 0.07% 0.07% 0.98% 1.0% -- 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.4 | 28 Kentucky 0.07% 0.06% 0.48% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% | +0.9 +0.6 +0.9 | 29 BYU 0.14% 0.06% 1.42% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.2 +0.5 | 30 Utah St. 0.04% 0.06% 0.00% -- -- 0.3% | -- -- +0.3 | 31 Villanova 0.05% 0.05% 0.66% 1.0% -- 0.3% | +0.9 -- +0.3 | 32 N.C. State 0.03% 0.05% 0.00% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% | +0.9 +0.7 +0.4 | 33 Clemson 0.06% 0.04% 0.74% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.3 | 34 Miami FL 0.06% 0.04% 0.07% 1.0% -- 0.4% | +1.0 -- +0.4 | 35 Texas A&M 0.04% 0.04% 1.14% 1.0% -- 0.4% | +1.0 -- +0.4 | 36 UCLA 0.03% 0.03% 0.44% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% | +1.0 +0.4 +0.3 | 37 Santa Clara 0.03% 0.03% 0.29% 1.0% -- 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.1 | 38 Ohio St. 0.04% 0.03% 0.00% 1.0% -- 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.2 | 39 Saint Louis 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | +1.0 +0.5 +0.5 | 40 SMU 0.01% 0.01% 0.22% 1.0% -- 0.3% | +1.0 -- +0.3 | 41 Indiana 0.02% 0.01% 0.36% 1.0% -- 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.2 | 42 TCU 0.01% 0.01% 0.18% -- -- 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 | 43 South Florida 0.01% 0.01% 0.03% -- -- 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 | 44 Xavier 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.0% -- 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.1 | 45 Seton Hall 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.0% -- 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.2 | 46 San Diego St. 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.0% -- 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.2 | 47 San Francisco 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.0% -- -- | +1.0 -- -- | 48 St. Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.0% -- -- | +1.0 -- -- | 49 Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.0% -- -- | +1.0 -- -- | 50 Rutgers 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -- -- 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 | 51 South Carolina 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -- -- 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 | 52 Wake Forest 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.0% -- 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.1 | 53 Stanford 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.0% -- 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.2 | 54 UMBC 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -- -- -- | -- -- -- | 55 VCU 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.0% -- 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.2 | ============================================================================================================== KenPom: 2026-03-05 11:14 | Bracketology: 2026-03-05 11:15 | Odds: 2026-03-05 11:15 | Injuries: 2026-03-05 11:15 SBCB Elo: inline (11s)