24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.00% 20.3-21.7% 19.7% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 33.9% | -6.0 -6.5 -5.5 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.89% 18.2-19.5% 20.1% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 79% 65% 47% 29.0% | +2.1 +2.1 +0.9 |
3 - Michigan 1 11.72% 11.2-12.2% 16.6% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 73% 55% 37% 21.3% | +10.3 +10.3 +8.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.44% 9.0-9.9% 7.3% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 48% 30% 17.7% | -2.4 -0.4 -1.5 |
5 - Florida 1 7.86% 7.4-8.3% 9.6% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 53% 29% 16.8% | +5.1 +3.7 +3.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 ▲1 Illinois 3 5.49% 5.1-5.9% 4.4% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 37% 22% 12.2% | -0.5 -1.4 -1.2 |
7 ▼1 Iowa St 2 4.77% 4.4-5.1% 5.6% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 71% 46% 25% 12.1% | -0.8 -2.1 -1.2 |
8 - Connecticut 2 3.77% 3.5-4.1% 1.4% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 87% 69% 44% 21% 8.2% | +2.2 +1.1 +0.9 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.50% 3.2-3.8% 4.7% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 68% 42% 17% 7.9% | -0.5 -0.7 -1.3 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.54% 2.3-2.8% 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 5.0% | -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.46% 1.3-1.7% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 53% 21% 10% 4.2% | -- -0.4 -0.6 | ALIGNED
12 - Michigan St 3 1.44% 1.2-1.6% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 49% 25% 10% 3.6% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.3 |
13 - Tennessee 6 0.87% 0.72-1.02% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
14 ▲1 Arkansas 5 0.80% 0.66-0.95% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 42% 12% 5% 2.1% | +1.2 +0.0 +0.6 |
15 ▼1 Nebraska 4 0.78% 0.64-0.93% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 46% 18% 7% 2.5% | -- +0.2 +0.1 |
16 ▲1 St John's 5 0.76% 0.62-0.91% 0.7% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 39% 14% 6% 2.4% | +1.2 +0.3 +0.7 |
17 ▼1 Louisville 6 0.70% 0.57-0.84% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 19% 6% 1.8% | -- -0.2 +0.1 |
18 - Vanderbilt 4 0.67% 0.54-0.81% 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 42% 14% 6% 2.2% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.7 |
19 ▲2 Texas Tech 5 0.63% 0.50-0.76% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 75% 43% 16% 6% 2.2% | -- -0.0 +0.2 |
20 - Virginia 3 0.56% 0.44-0.68% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 42% 17% 6% 2.1% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
21 ▼2 Kansas 4 0.53% 0.42-0.65% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 52% 16% 7% 2.0% | +1.5 -0.0 +1.2 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.28% 0.20-0.37% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 76% 37% 11% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.26% 0.18-0.35% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 65% 29% 11% 3% 0.8% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.22% 0.15-0.30% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 69% 20% 10% 4% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.6 |
25 ▲1 Utah St 7 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 52% 17% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▼1 St Mary's CA 7 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 58% 15% 5% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
27 - Villanova 8 0.10% 0.05-0.16% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 54% 12% 5% 2% 0.4% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 ▲1 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 51% 14% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
29 ▼1 Georgia 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 16% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
30 - North Carolina 6 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 19% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
31 ▲5 Iowa 9 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 56% 9% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
32 ▼1 Ohio St 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 44% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
33 - Miami FL 7 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 58% 18% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 ▲1 Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.1 |
35 ▼3 UCLA 8 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 49% 12% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.4 +0.6 |
36 ▼2 St Louis 9 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
37 ▲1 VCU 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 11% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
38 ▲1 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
39 ▲2 Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 35% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▼3 Texas A&M 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 42% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
41 ▲1 NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.04% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 48% 14% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
42 ▼2 TCU 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 46% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 - UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 ▲3 High Point 13 0.02% 0.00-0.04% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.0 |
45 ▼1 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
46 ▲2 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▼2 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 25% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 21 10:00 CET | BPI: Mar 21 10:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 21 10:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 21 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.0% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.5%)
▲ Houston: model 9.4% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.5%)
▲ Illinois: model 5.5% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.2%)
▲ Iowa St: model 4.8% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.2%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.5% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.0%)