Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 23.68% 23.0-24.4% 24.0% 22.0% 19.5% | 100% 97% 85% 72% 53% 36.2% | +0.3 -1.7 -4.1 |
2 Arizona 1 18.02% 17.4-18.6% 14.0% 12.4% 14.4% | 100% 97% 85% 68% 48% 30.5% | -4.0 -5.6 -3.6 | MODEL HIGHER
3 Michigan 1 16.61% 16.0-17.2% 20.0% 18.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 84% 68% 47% 29.6% | +3.4 +1.4 +2.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Florida 2 8.46% 8.0-8.9% 16.0% 11.7% 10.4% | 80% 75% 64% 48% 28% 15.7% | +7.5 +3.2 +2.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
5 Houston 2 7.95% 7.5-8.4% 7.0% 8.0% 6.6% | 80% 77% 67% 50% 28% 15.6% | -0.9 +0.1 -1.4 |
6 Illinois 2 5.33% 5.0-5.7% 5.0% 4.3% 4.6% | 81% 77% 63% 45% 24% 12.0% | -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 |
7 Connecticut 2 3.75% 3.4-4.1% 6.0% 7.1% 5.1% | 79% 74% 60% 41% 20% 9.3% | +2.2 +3.3 +1.4 | MARKETS HIGHER
8 Gonzaga 4 2.33% 2.1-2.6% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% | 81% 71% 51% 22% 13% 6.2% | -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 | ALIGNED
9 Michigan St 2 2.20% 2.0-2.4% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% | 80% 75% 57% 34% 15% 6.1% | -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 | ALIGNED
10 Purdue 3 2.19% 1.9-2.4% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% | 100% 92% 67% 35% 12% 5.2% | +0.8 +0.9 +0.4 |
11 Iowa St 3 2.09% 1.9-2.3% 4.0% 2.9% 3.7% | 100% 91% 62% 31% 12% 5.3% | +1.9 +0.8 +1.6 |
12 Alabama 4 0.74% 0.60-0.88% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 80% 70% 43% 16% 7% 2.5% | +0.3 +0.1 +0.7 |
13 Nebraska 4 0.73% 0.59-0.87% 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% | 80% 71% 41% 15% 7% 2.4% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.3 |
14 Kansas 4 0.70% 0.56-0.84% 3.0% 1.7% 1.9% | 80% 70% 45% 16% 7% 2.5% | +2.3 +1.0 +1.2 |
15 Louisville 6 0.69% 0.56-0.83% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% | 100% 76% 46% 18% 7% 2.2% | +0.3 -0.2 +0.3 |
16 Virginia 3 0.63% 0.50-0.77% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% | 100% 94% 54% 21% 6% 2.0% | +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 |
17 Tennessee 5 0.55% 0.43-0.67% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% | 80% 67% 34% 11% 5% 1.8% | +0.5 +0.1 +0.8 |
18 Texas Tech 4 0.49% 0.38-0.61% 1.0% 1.9% 0.8% | 79% 72% 43% 15% 6% 2.0% | +0.5 +1.4 +0.3 |
19 St John's 5 0.41% 0.31-0.52% 2.0% 1.0% 1.4% | 80% 65% 32% 12% 5% 1.5% | +1.6 +0.6 +1.0 |
20 Vanderbilt 5 0.34% 0.25-0.44% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% | 80% 67% 32% 11% 4% 1.3% | +1.7 +0.2 +0.6 |
21 St Mary's CA 8 0.27% 0.19-0.36% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 52% 22% 9% 3% 0.9% | +0.7 -- +0.1 |
22 Arkansas 5 0.21% 0.14-0.29% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 80% 64% 30% 10% 4% 0.9% | +1.8 +0.6 +1.3 |
23 BYU 6 0.21% 0.14-0.29% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 67% 34% 11% 4% 1.0% | +0.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 Utah St 8 0.20% 0.13-0.28% -- -- 0.3% | 68% 51% 22% 8% 3% 0.8% | -- -- +0.1 |
25 Wisconsin 6 0.19% 0.12-0.26% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 100% 66% 36% 11% 3% 0.9% | +0.8 -- +0.6 |
26 Kentucky 7 0.17% 0.10-0.24% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% | 100% 62% 17% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.8 +0.2 +0.8 |
27 St Louis 8 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 67% 53% 20% 9% 3% 0.9% | +0.9 +0.4 +0.4 |
28 Georgia 8 0.12% 0.07-0.18% -- -- 0.3% | 66% 50% 21% 8% 3% 0.7% | -- -- +0.1 |
29 Villanova 6 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 60% 29% 9% 3% 0.6% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
30 Clemson 8 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 66% 50% 20% 8% 3% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 |
31 North Carolina 5 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% | 80% 58% 23% 6% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 +1.6 +0.6 |
32 Auburn 11 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 49% 25% 13% 4% 1% 0.2% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.1 |
33 NC State 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 67% 48% 19% 7% 2% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.5 +0.4 |
34 UCLA 9 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 50% 7% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.4 |
35 Ohio St 10 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 49% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
36 SMU 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 58% 49% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
37 Indiana 11 0.02% 0.00-0.04% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 51% 20% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
38 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 56% 48% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
39 New Mexico 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- | 50% 14% 5% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- -- |
40 South Florida 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- 0.1% | 66% 17% 5% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
41 San Diego St 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 14% 6% 1% 0% 0.0% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
42 Santa Clara 11 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 49% 18% 8% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
43 Texas A&M 10 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 58% 49% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
44 Texas 10 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 48% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
45 Iowa 9 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 47% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
46 TCU 10 0.00% 0.00-0.00% -- -- 0.2% | 57% 48% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53845 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 08 01:00 CET | BPI: Mar 08 01:04 CET | Odds: Mar 08 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 08 01:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 08 01:06 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Duke: model 23.7% vs sharp 19.5% (+4.1%)
▲ Arizona: model 18.0% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.6%)
▲ Houston: model 8.0% vs sharp 6.6% (+1.4%)