Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 23.45% 22.8-24.1% 23.0% 22.0% 19.6% | 100% 96% 85% 71% 52% 35.7% | -0.4 -1.4 -3.9 |
2 Arizona 1 17.36% 16.8-18.0% 14.0% 11.9% 14.4% | 100% 97% 85% 69% 48% 30.0% | -3.4 -5.5 -3.0 | MODEL HIGHER
3 Michigan 1 15.45% 14.8-16.0% 19.0% 18.0% 19.5% | 100% 95% 84% 66% 46% 27.5% | +3.6 +2.5 +4.1 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Florida 2 9.95% 9.4-10.5% 13.0% 11.2% 10.1% | 100% 94% 80% 60% 33% 18.6% | +3.0 +1.2 +0.2 |
5 Houston 2 8.73% 8.3-9.2% 7.0% 8.0% 6.6% | 100% 96% 83% 62% 32% 17.5% | -1.7 -0.7 -2.1 |
6 Illinois 2 6.06% 5.7-6.5% 5.0% 4.3% 4.6% | 100% 95% 78% 55% 28% 13.4% | -1.1 -1.8 -1.4 |
7 Connecticut 1 5.01% 4.7-5.4% 6.0% 6.2% 5.1% | 100% 95% 73% 47% 27% 12.3% | +1.0 +1.2 +0.1 |
8 Michigan St 2 2.21% 2.0-2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% | 100% 94% 71% 43% 17% 6.3% | -0.2 +0.1 -0.3 | ALIGNED
9 Purdue 3 2.18% 1.9-2.4% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% | 100% 92% 66% 34% 14% 5.8% | +0.8 +0.9 +0.5 |
10 Iowa St 3 2.08% 1.8-2.3% 4.0% 2.9% 3.7% | 100% 91% 64% 31% 13% 5.6% | +1.9 +0.8 +1.7 |
11 Gonzaga 4 1.70% 1.5-1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% | 80% 70% 50% 19% 11% 4.7% | +0.3 +0.1 +0.1 | ALIGNED
12 Alabama 4 0.72% 0.58-0.86% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 79% 69% 43% 14% 7% 2.3% | +0.3 +0.1 +0.7 |
13 Virginia 3 0.56% 0.44-0.68% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% | 100% 94% 54% 21% 6% 1.8% | +0.4 +0.4 +0.4 |
14 Kansas 4 0.52% 0.41-0.64% 3.0% 1.7% 1.9% | 80% 71% 46% 14% 6% 2.0% | +2.5 +1.2 +1.4 |
15 Nebraska 4 0.52% 0.40-0.64% 2.0% 1.2% 1.1% | 80% 71% 42% 14% 6% 1.9% | +1.5 +0.7 +0.5 |
16 Louisville 6 0.50% 0.39-0.62% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% | 100% 76% 46% 18% 6% 1.8% | +0.5 +0.0 +0.5 |
17 Tennessee 5 0.44% 0.34-0.55% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% | 80% 67% 33% 9% 4% 1.2% | +0.6 +0.9 +0.9 |
18 Texas Tech 4 0.43% 0.33-0.54% 1.0% 1.5% 0.8% | 81% 72% 43% 13% 5% 1.5% | +0.6 +1.1 +0.4 |
19 Vanderbilt 5 0.35% 0.26-0.45% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% | 80% 68% 32% 9% 4% 1.2% | +1.7 +0.1 +0.5 |
20 Arkansas 5 0.28% 0.19-0.37% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% | 81% 66% 32% 9% 4% 1.0% | +1.7 +0.5 +1.3 |
21 St John's 5 0.27% 0.19-0.36% 2.0% 1.2% 1.4% | 80% 66% 33% 10% 4% 1.4% | +1.7 +0.9 +1.2 |
22 BYU 6 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 67% 33% 10% 3% 0.7% | +0.9 +0.2 +0.4 |
23 Kentucky 7 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% | 100% 61% 17% 8% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 +0.3 +0.8 |
24 Wisconsin 6 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 100% 65% 34% 10% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.6 |
25 Villanova 6 0.12% 0.07-0.18% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 61% 30% 9% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
26 St Mary's CA 8 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 52% 11% 5% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
27 St Louis 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 67% 53% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.4 +0.5 |
28 North Carolina 5 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% | 80% 58% 23% 5% 1% 0.4% | +0.9 +1.6 +0.7 |
29 UCLA 9 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 50% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 |
30 Georgia 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% -- -- 0.3% | 66% 49% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
31 Texas 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 48% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
32 Clemson 8 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 66% 51% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.3 |
33 UCF 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 57% 48% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
34 TCU 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% -- -- 0.2% | 57% 48% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
35 SMU 10 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 57% 48% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
36 Auburn 11 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 50% 27% 14% 4% 1% 0.3% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.1 |
37 NC State 8 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 67% 48% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
38 Ohio St 10 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 49% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
39 Utah St 8 0.03% 0.01-0.06% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 50% 10% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.3 |
40 Iowa 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 46% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
41 Santa Clara 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 19% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
42 Missouri 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 48% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
43 Indiana 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 51% 20% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
44 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- 0.1% | 66% 14% 3% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
45 Texas A&M 10 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 49% 11% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
46 New Mexico 11 0.00% 0.00-0.00% -- -- -- | 51% 14% 5% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- -- |
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53845 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 07 21:30 CET | BPI: Mar 07 21:34 CET | Odds: Mar 07 21:34 CET | Injuries: Mar 07 21:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 07 00:35 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Duke: model 23.4% vs sharp 19.6% (+3.9%)
▲ Arizona: model 17.4% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.0%)
▲ Houston: model 8.7% vs sharp 6.6% (+2.1%)
▲ Illinois: model 6.1% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.4%)