Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 20.54% 20.2-20.8% 25.0% 22.0% 20.0% | 100% 96% 84% 70% 50% 33.0% | +4.5 +1.5 -0.6 |
2 Arizona 1 15.73% 15.5-16.0% 13.0% 13.0% 15.2% | 100% 96% 84% 68% 46% 27.9% | -2.7 -2.7 -0.5 |
3 Michigan 1 15.54% 15.3-15.8% 20.0% 19.0% 19.5% | 100% 95% 83% 66% 44% 27.0% | +4.5 +3.5 +4.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Houston 2 10.99% 10.8-11.2% 7.0% 8.0% 7.2% | 100% 96% 80% 61% 35% 20.0% | -4.0 -3.0 -3.8 | MODEL HIGHER
5 Florida 2 9.58% 9.4-9.8% 13.0% 11.3% 9.5% | 100% 94% 78% 57% 32% 18.0% | +3.4 +1.7 -0.0 |
6 Illinois 2 7.22% 7.0-7.4% 5.0% 5.0% 4.6% | 100% 95% 77% 55% 29% 14.9% | -2.2 -2.2 -2.6 | MODEL HIGHER
7 Connecticut 1 5.75% 5.6-5.9% 7.0% 6.1% 4.8% | 100% 95% 75% 49% 29% 13.4% | +1.3 +0.3 -1.0 | ALIGNED
8 Michigan St 2 2.56% 2.4-2.7% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% | 100% 94% 68% 42% 18% 7.0% | -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 |
9 Purdue 3 2.46% 2.3-2.6% 3.0% 3.1% 2.1% | 100% 92% 67% 35% 15% 6.3% | +0.5 +0.6 -0.4 | ALIGNED
10 Iowa St 3 1.88% 1.8-2.0% 4.0% 2.8% 3.7% | 100% 89% 62% 30% 13% 5.1% | +2.1 +0.9 +1.9 |
11 Gonzaga 4 1.63% 1.5-1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% | 67% 59% 44% 17% 10% 4.3% | +0.4 +0.6 -0.1 | ALIGNED
12 Alabama 4 0.66% 0.60-0.72% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% | 67% 58% 40% 13% 6% 2.2% | +0.3 +0.4 +0.5 |
13 St John's 4 0.56% 0.50-0.61% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% | 67% 59% 38% 12% 5% 1.7% | +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 |
14 Louisville 6 0.53% 0.48-0.59% 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% | 100% 77% 47% 20% 6% 1.9% | +0.5 +0.2 +0.4 |
15 Virginia 3 0.51% 0.46-0.56% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% | 100% 94% 55% 20% 6% 1.9% | +0.5 +0.5 +0.5 |
16 Texas Tech 4 0.46% 0.41-0.51% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% | 67% 60% 39% 11% 5% 1.5% | +0.5 +0.9 +0.4 |
17 Tennessee 5 0.46% 0.41-0.51% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% | 100% 84% 40% 11% 5% 1.7% | +0.5 +0.4 +0.8 |
18 Vanderbilt 5 0.44% 0.39-0.49% 2.0% 0.7% 0.9% | 100% 85% 42% 12% 5% 1.5% | +1.6 +0.3 +0.5 |
19 Kansas 4 0.43% 0.38-0.48% 3.0% 2.0% 2.2% | 67% 59% 39% 11% 5% 1.5% | +2.6 +1.6 +1.8 |
20 Nebraska 4 0.41% 0.36-0.46% 2.0% 1.5% 1.1% | 67% 57% 36% 11% 5% 1.5% | +1.6 +1.1 +0.7 |
21 Arkansas 5 0.41% 0.37-0.46% 2.0% 1.1% 1.4% | 100% 81% 39% 12% 4% 1.4% | +1.6 +0.7 +1.0 |
22 BYU 6 0.16% 0.13-0.19% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 67% 33% 11% 3% 0.8% | +0.8 +0.1 +0.4 |
23 North Carolina 6 0.13% 0.10-0.15% 1.0% 2.0% 1.1% | 100% 65% 32% 10% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 +1.9 +0.9 |
24 Kentucky 7 0.11% 0.08-0.13% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% | 100% 62% 18% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.6 +0.8 |
25 St Mary's CA 8 0.11% 0.09-0.14% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 47% 11% 5% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
26 Villanova 6 0.11% 0.08-0.13% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 60% 30% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
27 Auburn 10 0.11% 0.09-0.14% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 67% 51% 15% 7% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.1 |
28 Wisconsin 7 0.10% 0.07-0.12% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 100% 60% 16% 7% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.7 |
29 UCLA 9 0.07% 0.05-0.09% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 55% 10% 4% 1% 0.4% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 |
30 Georgia 8 0.05% 0.04-0.07% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 43% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
31 Utah St 8 0.04% 0.02-0.05% -- -- 0.3% | 66% 42% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
32 St Louis 8 0.04% 0.03-0.06% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 67% 45% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.5 +0.5 |
33 Clemson 8 0.03% 0.02-0.04% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 67% 43% 7% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.4 |
34 UCF 9 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 39% 6% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
35 Indiana 11 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 20% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
36 Iowa 9 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 44% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
37 Texas 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 47% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
38 Ohio St 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 67% 47% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
39 SMU 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 66% 45% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
40 NC State 8 0.01% 0.01-0.02% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 67% 42% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
41 Texas A&M 11 0.01% 0.00-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 50% 24% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
42 Santa Clara 11 0.01% 0.00-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 19% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
43 TCU 10 0.01% 0.00-0.02% -- -- 0.2% | 67% 44% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 Missouri 10 0.01% 0.00-0.01% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 66% 45% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
45 VCU 11 0.01% 0.00-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 18% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
46 UC Irvine 14 0.00% 0.00-0.01% -- -- 0.2% | 66% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.2 |
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Model: 70% LightGBM + 30% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53618 | 50,000 bracket sims
Features: 45 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 06 06:02 | BPI: Mar 06 06:03 | Odds: Mar 06 06:03 | Injuries: Mar 05 22:21 | Kaggle: Mar 06 00:36
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Houston: model 11.0% vs sharp 7.2% (+3.8%)
▲ Illinois: model 7.2% vs sharp 4.6% (+2.6%)