24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 22.09% 21.4-22.8% 20.3% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.9% | -7.1 -7.6 -6.6 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.16% 17.5-18.8% 19.9% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 80% 65% 46% 27.7% | +2.8 +2.8 +1.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.62% 11.1-12.2% 17.9% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 72% 54% 36% 21.3% | +10.4 +10.4 +8.9 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 8.99% 8.5-9.5% 6.3% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 48% 30% 17.6% | -2.0 +0.0 -1.1 |
5 - Florida 1 7.84% 7.4-8.3% 8.9% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 73% 52% 29% 16.6% | +5.2 +3.8 +3.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 5.18% 4.8-5.5% 4.7% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 36% 21% 11.8% | -0.2 -1.1 -0.9 |
7 - Iowa St 2 5.17% 4.8-5.5% 5.6% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 72% 47% 26% 12.9% | -1.2 -2.5 -1.6 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.21% 3.9-4.5% 1.4% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 45% 23% 8.8% | +1.8 +0.7 +0.5 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.43% 3.1-3.7% 5.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 68% 42% 17% 7.8% | -0.4 -0.6 -1.3 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.41% 2.2-2.7% 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 12% 5.0% | -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 |
11 - Michigan St 3 1.75% 1.5-2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 55% 28% 11% 4.1% | +1.2 -0.3 +0.0 | ALIGNED
12 - Alabama 4 1.59% 1.4-1.8% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 54% 22% 11% 4.4% | -- -0.5 -0.7 |
13 - Tennessee 6 0.82% 0.67-0.97% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.5% | -- +0.3 +0.1 |
14 ▲1 Arkansas 5 0.79% 0.65-0.94% 0.4% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 42% 12% 5% 2.1% | +1.2 +0.0 +0.6 |
15 ▼1 Nebraska 4 0.78% 0.64-0.93% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 46% 18% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.1 |
16 ▲1 St John's 5 0.74% 0.60-0.88% 0.5% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 78% 39% 13% 6% 2.2% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.7 |
17 ▼1 Vanderbilt 4 0.61% 0.48-0.74% 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 42% 13% 6% 2.2% | +1.4 +0.2 +0.8 |
18 ▲2 Texas Tech 5 0.59% 0.47-0.72% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 75% 43% 16% 6% 2.1% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
19 ▼1 Louisville 6 0.54% 0.42-0.66% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 36% 15% 5% 1.5% | -- -0.0 +0.2 |
20 ▲1 Virginia 3 0.50% 0.39-0.62% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 42% 17% 6% 2.0% | -- +0.6 +0.7 |
21 ▼2 Kansas 4 0.42% 0.32-0.53% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 52% 16% 6% 1.8% | +1.6 +0.1 +1.3 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.29% 0.21-0.38% 0.2% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 75% 36% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.25% 0.17-0.34% 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 66% 30% 11% 3% 0.8% | +1.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.20% 0.13-0.28% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 69% 20% 10% 4% 1.1% | -- +0.1 +0.7 |
25 ▲2 Utah St 7 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 51% 17% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 - St Mary's CA 7 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 58% 15% 5% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
27 ▼2 Villanova 8 0.09% 0.04-0.14% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 56% 12% 5% 2% 0.4% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 - Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% -- 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 50% 13% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
29 ▲1 North Carolina 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% -- 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 19% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
30 ▼1 Georgia 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 51% 16% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
31 ▲1 Miami FL 7 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 59% 18% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
32 ▲4 Iowa 9 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 56% 9% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
33 - UCLA 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 50% 13% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.3 +0.6 |
34 ▲1 Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.1 |
35 ▼4 Ohio St 8 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 44% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
36 ▲3 VCU 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 11% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
37 ▲1 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.00-0.06% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
38 ▼4 St Louis 9 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 49% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
39 ▲1 Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 34% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▼3 Texas A&M 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 42% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
41 ▲2 NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 49% 14% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
42 ▲2 TCU 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 44% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 ▲5 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 41% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 ▼3 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 22% 4% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
45 ▲1 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 25% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
46 ▲1 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▼5 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 22 01:00 CET | BPI: Mar 22 01:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 22 01:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 22 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 22.1% vs sharp 15.5% (+6.6%)
▲ Houston: model 9.0% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.1%)
▲ Iowa St: model 5.2% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.6%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.4% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.3%)