Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 22.73% 22.1-23.4% 24.0% 22.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 86% 72% 54% 36.3% | +1.3 -0.7 -3.2 |
2 Arizona 1 17.49% 16.9-18.1% 14.0% 10.6% 14.4% | 100% 97% 84% 69% 49% 30.1% | -3.5 -6.9 -3.1 | MODEL HIGHER
3 Michigan 1 16.33% 15.7-16.9% 19.0% 18.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 84% 67% 47% 28.6% | +2.7 +1.7 +3.2 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Florida 1 10.61% 10.1-11.1% 16.0% 12.9% 10.4% | 100% 95% 80% 59% 38% 20.8% | +5.4 +2.3 -0.2 | MARKETS HIGHER
5 Houston 2 8.72% 8.3-9.2% 7.0% 8.0% 6.6% | 100% 95% 82% 60% 31% 17.0% | -1.7 -0.7 -2.1 |
6 Illinois 2 6.32% 5.9-6.7% 5.0% 4.3% 4.6% | 100% 95% 78% 55% 27% 13.6% | -1.3 -2.0 -1.7 |
7 Connecticut 2 4.46% 4.1-4.8% 6.0% 6.2% 5.1% | 100% 94% 77% 52% 24% 10.7% | +1.5 +1.7 +0.7 |
8 Michigan St 2 2.22% 2.0-2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% | 100% 94% 70% 43% 17% 6.6% | -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 | ALIGNED
9 Iowa St 3 1.95% 1.7-2.2% 4.0% 2.9% 3.7% | 100% 91% 64% 33% 13% 5.3% | +2.1 +1.0 +1.8 |
10 Purdue 3 1.77% 1.6-2.0% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% | 100% 92% 66% 35% 14% 5.3% | +1.2 +1.3 +0.8 |
11 Gonzaga 4 1.76% 1.6-2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% | 80% 71% 49% 17% 10% 4.5% | +0.2 +0.2 +0.1 | ALIGNED
12 Kansas 4 0.67% 0.54-0.81% 3.0% 1.7% 1.9% | 80% 71% 44% 12% 6% 2.0% | +2.3 +1.0 +1.2 |
13 Alabama 4 0.64% 0.51-0.78% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 80% 70% 43% 12% 6% 2.0% | +0.4 +0.2 +0.8 |
14 Virginia 3 0.56% 0.44-0.69% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% | 100% 94% 56% 23% 7% 1.9% | +0.4 +0.6 +0.4 |
15 Nebraska 4 0.54% 0.42-0.66% 2.0% 1.0% 1.1% | 79% 69% 38% 11% 5% 1.6% | +1.5 +0.5 +0.5 |
16 Texas Tech 4 0.43% 0.32-0.54% 1.0% 1.8% 0.8% | 80% 72% 42% 11% 5% 1.5% | +0.6 +1.4 +0.4 |
17 St John's 5 0.42% 0.32-0.53% 2.0% 1.0% 1.4% | 100% 82% 41% 11% 5% 1.6% | +1.6 +0.6 +1.0 |
18 Tennessee 5 0.41% 0.31-0.52% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% | 100% 84% 43% 11% 5% 1.5% | +0.6 +0.2 +0.9 |
19 Louisville 6 0.36% 0.26-0.46% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% | 80% 60% 37% 15% 4% 1.5% | +0.6 +0.1 +0.6 |
20 Vanderbilt 5 0.27% 0.19-0.36% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% | 100% 85% 40% 11% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 +0.2 +0.6 |
21 Arkansas 5 0.25% 0.17-0.34% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% | 100% 81% 38% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.8 +0.8 +1.3 |
22 BYU 6 0.15% 0.09-0.22% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 80% 53% 27% 9% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.4 |
23 Villanova 6 0.14% 0.08-0.20% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 80% 48% 23% 7% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
24 Wisconsin 6 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 80% 52% 28% 9% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.7 |
25 St Mary's CA 8 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 52% 10% 4% 1% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
26 Kentucky 7 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% | 100% 62% 18% 9% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 +0.3 +0.9 |
27 Auburn 11 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 57% 29% 15% 6% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.1 |
28 Georgia 8 0.06% 0.02-0.10% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 50% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 Utah St 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 51% 9% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.3 |
30 North Carolina 6 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% | 80% 50% 24% 7% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 +1.7 +0.7 |
31 St Louis 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 66% 52% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | +0.9 +0.5 +0.5 |
32 Ohio St 10 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 48% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
33 Texas 10 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 48% 11% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
34 Santa Clara 11 0.02% 0.00-0.04% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 22% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
35 UCLA 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 50% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.4 |
36 Iowa 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 47% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
37 Missouri 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 58% 48% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
38 TCU 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- -- 0.2% | 57% 48% 9% 3% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.2 |
39 VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 20% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
40 NC State 8 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 68% 48% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
41 Texas A&M 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 49% 11% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
42 South Florida 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- 0.1% | 66% 16% 5% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
43 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- 0.2% | 66% 14% 3% 0% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.2 |
44 Indiana 11 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 58% 23% 9% 2% 0% 0.0% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
45 San Diego St 11 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 17% 7% 1% 0% 0.0% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
46 SMU 10 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 58% 48% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53845 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 08 03:00 CET | BPI: Mar 08 03:04 CET | Odds: Mar 08 03:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 08 03:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 08 01:06 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Duke: model 22.7% vs sharp 19.5% (+3.2%)
▲ Arizona: model 17.5% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.1%)
▲ Houston: model 8.7% vs sharp 6.6% (+2.1%)
▲ Illinois: model 6.3% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.7%)