24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.01% 20.3-21.7% 20.0% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 82% 65% 52% 34.0% | -6.0 -6.5 -5.5 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 18.72% 18.1-19.4% 19.2% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 79% 64% 47% 28.8% | +2.3 +2.3 +1.0 |
3 - Michigan 1 11.69% 11.2-12.2% 16.4% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 90% 73% 55% 37% 21.3% | +10.3 +10.3 +8.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.34% 8.9-9.8% 7.1% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 76% 48% 30% 17.7% | -2.3 -0.3 -1.4 |
5 - Florida 1 7.85% 7.4-8.3% 9.6% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 74% 52% 29% 16.8% | +5.2 +3.8 +3.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 ▲1 Illinois 3 5.54% 5.2-5.9% 5.0% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 37% 22% 12.3% | -0.5 -1.4 -1.3 |
7 ▼1 Iowa St 2 4.69% 4.3-5.0% 5.6% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 71% 45% 24% 11.9% | -0.7 -2.0 -1.1 |
8 - Connecticut 2 3.77% 3.5-4.1% 1.1% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 87% 69% 45% 21% 8.2% | +2.2 +1.1 +0.9 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.53% 3.2-3.8% 5.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 69% 42% 18% 8.1% | -0.5 -0.7 -1.4 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.53% 2.3-2.8% 1.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 61% 34% 12% 5.0% | -0.5 -0.9 -1.0 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.65% 1.5-1.9% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 86% 55% 22% 11% 4.6% | -- -0.6 -0.8 |
12 - Michigan St 3 1.50% 1.3-1.7% 1.9% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 49% 25% 10% 3.6% | +1.5 +0.0 +0.3 |
13 ▲1 Tennessee 6 0.88% 0.73-1.04% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 69% 43% 20% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
14 ▲2 Arkansas 5 0.81% 0.66-0.96% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 74% 42% 12% 5% 2.1% | +1.2 -0.0 +0.6 |
15 ▼2 Nebraska 4 0.81% 0.67-0.96% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 47% 18% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.1 |
16 ▲1 St John's 5 0.72% 0.58-0.86% 0.9% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 76% 38% 13% 6% 2.1% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.7 |
17 ▲1 Vanderbilt 4 0.69% 0.55-0.83% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 79% 42% 14% 6% 2.2% | +1.3 +0.1 +0.7 |
18 ▼3 Louisville 6 0.68% 0.55-0.82% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 72% 42% 19% 6% 1.8% | -- -0.2 +0.1 |
19 - Kansas 4 0.66% 0.53-0.79% 0.6% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 84% 55% 17% 8% 2.2% | +1.3 -0.2 +1.0 |
20 - Virginia 3 0.62% 0.49-0.75% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 87% 42% 18% 7% 2.2% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
21 - Texas Tech 5 0.52% 0.40-0.64% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 74% 41% 15% 6% 1.9% | -- +0.1 +0.3 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.26% 0.18-0.35% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 73% 33% 9% 4% 1.0% | +1.7 -- +1.0 |
23 - BYU 6 0.23% 0.16-0.31% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 65% 29% 10% 3% 0.8% | +1.8 +0.1 +0.3 |
24 - Kentucky 7 0.22% 0.15-0.30% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 69% 20% 10% 4% 1.0% | -- +0.1 +0.6 |
25 ▲2 Villanova 8 0.14% 0.08-0.20% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 58% 13% 5% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.1 |
26 ▲3 Utah St 7 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 49% 16% 6% 2% 0.4% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 ▼2 St Mary's CA 7 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 58% 15% 5% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 ▼2 Georgia 8 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 50% 15% 6% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.2 |
29 ▲1 Clemson 9 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 53% 14% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
30 ▼2 North Carolina 6 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 60% 19% 5% 1% 0.3% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
31 ▲2 Miami FL 7 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 55% 17% 6% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
32 ▲4 Iowa 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 51% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
33 ▼2 Ohio St 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 49% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
34 - Santa Clara 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 31% 13% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.1 |
35 - St Louis 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 50% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.3 +0.2 |
36 ▼4 UCLA 8 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 47% 11% 5% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.4 +0.6 |
37 ▲10 Texas A&M 10 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 42% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.4 |
38 ▼1 South Florida 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 7% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
39 ▲1 VCU 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 11% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▲4 Texas 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 35% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 ▲9 Missouri 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 31% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.3 |
42 ▼3 UCF 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 45% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 ▼2 Miami OH 12 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 24% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
44 ▲1 High Point 13 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 21% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.0 |
45 ▼2 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
46 ▼4 McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 26% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
47 ▼9 NC State 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 51% 14% 5% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
48 ▼2 SMU 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 26% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 21 07:00 CET | BPI: Mar 21 07:04 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 21 07:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 21 01:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.0% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.5%)
▲ Houston: model 9.3% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.4%)
▲ Illinois: model 5.5% vs sharp 4.2% (+1.3%)
▲ Iowa St: model 4.7% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.1%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.5% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.4%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.5% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.0%)