Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 19.94% 19.3-20.6% 24.0% 22.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 85% 70% 51% 33.2% | +4.1 +2.1 -0.4 |
2 Arizona 1 18.08% 17.5-18.7% 14.0% 11.9% 14.4% | 100% 97% 85% 69% 49% 30.6% | -4.1 -6.2 -3.7 | MODEL HIGHER
3 Michigan 1 16.68% 16.1-17.3% 21.0% 18.0% 19.5% | 100% 96% 84% 67% 47% 28.7% | +4.3 +1.3 +2.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Florida 1 10.87% 10.4-11.4% 17.0% 11.8% 10.4% | 100% 95% 80% 60% 38% 21.1% | +6.1 +0.9 -0.5 | MARKETS HIGHER
5 Houston 2 9.15% 8.7-9.6% 7.0% 8.0% 7.2% | 100% 95% 82% 61% 32% 17.4% | -2.1 -1.1 -1.9 |
6 Illinois 2 6.52% 6.1-6.9% 5.0% 4.3% 4.6% | 100% 95% 78% 55% 27% 13.8% | -1.5 -2.2 -1.9 |
7 Connecticut 2 4.93% 4.6-5.3% 6.0% 6.3% 4.5% | 100% 94% 77% 52% 24% 11.3% | +1.1 +1.4 -0.4 |
8 Michigan St 2 2.31% 2.1-2.6% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% | 100% 94% 71% 43% 17% 6.7% | -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 | ALIGNED
9 Iowa St 3 2.01% 1.8-2.2% 4.0% 2.9% 3.7% | 100% 90% 64% 32% 13% 5.4% | +2.0 +0.9 +1.7 |
10 Purdue 3 1.88% 1.7-2.1% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% | 100% 92% 65% 34% 14% 5.4% | +1.1 +1.2 +0.7 |
11 Gonzaga 4 1.82% 1.6-2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% | 80% 71% 49% 17% 10% 4.7% | +0.2 -0.0 -0.0 | ALIGNED
12 Kansas 4 0.68% 0.55-0.82% 3.0% 1.7% 1.9% | 80% 71% 44% 12% 6% 2.1% | +2.3 +1.0 +1.2 |
13 Nebraska 4 0.61% 0.48-0.74% 2.0% 1.0% 1.1% | 79% 69% 38% 11% 5% 1.6% | +1.4 +0.4 +0.4 |
14 Virginia 3 0.56% 0.44-0.69% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% | 100% 94% 56% 23% 7% 2.0% | +0.4 +0.6 +0.4 |
15 Alabama 4 0.52% 0.41-0.64% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 80% 70% 42% 11% 5% 1.7% | +0.5 +0.3 +0.9 |
16 St John's 5 0.46% 0.35-0.57% 2.0% 1.2% 1.4% | 100% 82% 41% 11% 5% 1.6% | +1.5 +0.7 +1.0 |
17 Tennessee 5 0.45% 0.34-0.56% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% | 100% 84% 43% 12% 5% 1.6% | +0.6 +0.2 +0.9 |
18 Texas Tech 4 0.43% 0.32-0.54% 1.0% 1.8% 0.8% | 80% 72% 42% 11% 5% 1.5% | +0.6 +1.4 +0.4 |
19 Louisville 6 0.40% 0.30-0.50% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% | 80% 60% 38% 15% 5% 1.6% | +0.6 +0.1 +0.6 |
20 Vanderbilt 5 0.30% 0.21-0.39% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% | 100% 85% 40% 11% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 +0.2 +0.6 |
21 Arkansas 5 0.25% 0.17-0.34% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% | 100% 81% 39% 10% 4% 1.2% | +1.8 +0.8 +1.3 |
22 BYU 6 0.16% 0.10-0.23% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 80% 53% 27% 9% 2% 0.6% | +0.8 +0.1 +0.4 |
23 Villanova 6 0.15% 0.09-0.22% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 80% 48% 23% 7% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
24 Wisconsin 6 0.11% 0.06-0.17% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 80% 52% 28% 9% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 -- +0.7 |
25 Kentucky 7 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% | 100% 62% 18% 9% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 +0.3 +0.9 |
26 St Mary's CA 8 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 53% 10% 4% 1% 0.4% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
27 Georgia 8 0.07% 0.03-0.12% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 51% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 Auburn 11 0.07% 0.03-0.12% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 57% 29% 15% 5% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.1 |
29 North Carolina 6 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% | 80% 50% 24% 8% 2% 0.4% | +0.9 +1.6 +0.7 |
30 Ohio St 10 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 48% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | +0.9 -- +0.2 |
31 St Louis 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 66% 52% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | +0.9 +0.5 +0.5 |
32 Utah St 8 0.05% 0.02-0.09% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 51% 10% 3% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.3 |
33 Texas 10 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 47% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
34 VCU 11 0.03% 0.01-0.06% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 20% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
35 Santa Clara 11 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 22% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
36 Iowa 9 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 48% 7% 2% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
37 Missouri 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 58% 48% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
38 TCU 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% -- -- 0.2% | 57% 48% 9% 3% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
39 UCLA 9 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 47% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.4 |
40 Texas A&M 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 57% 49% 11% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
41 Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- 0.2% | 66% 15% 3% 0% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 South Florida 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- 0.1% | 66% 16% 5% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
43 NC State 8 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 68% 48% 7% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
44 Indiana 11 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 58% 23% 9% 2% 0% 0.0% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
45 San Diego St 11 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 57% 17% 7% 1% 0% 0.0% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
46 SMU 10 0.00% 0.00-0.00% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 58% 48% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
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Model: 60% LightGBM + 40% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53845 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 44 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 08 06:00 CET | BPI: Mar 08 06:04 CET | Odds: Mar 08 06:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 08 06:04 CET | Kaggle: Mar 08 01:06 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 18.1% vs sharp 14.4% (+3.7%)
▲ Houston: model 9.2% vs sharp 7.2% (+1.9%)
▲ Illinois: model 6.5% vs sharp 4.6% (+1.9%)