24h Team Seed Ens% 90% CI LR% Kal% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 - Arizona 1 21.09% 20.4-21.8% 18.5% 15.0% 14.5% 15.5% | 100% 95% 81% 64% 51% 33.8% | -6.1 -6.6 -5.6 | MODEL HIGHER
2 - Duke 1 17.99% 17.4-18.6% 19.7% 21.0% 21.0% 19.8% | 100% 94% 79% 65% 46% 27.6% | +3.0 +3.0 +1.8 | MARKETS HIGHER
3 - Michigan 1 11.96% 11.4-12.5% 18.1% 22.0% 22.0% 20.5% | 100% 89% 72% 55% 37% 21.7% | +10.0 +10.0 +8.6 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 - Houston 2 9.52% 9.0-10.0% 6.9% 7.0% 9.0% 7.9% | 100% 94% 79% 50% 31% 18.3% | -2.5 -0.5 -1.6 |
5 - Florida 1 7.91% 7.5-8.4% 9.2% 13.0% 11.6% 10.9% | 100% 93% 72% 52% 29% 16.7% | +5.1 +3.7 +3.0 | MARKETS HIGHER
6 - Illinois 3 5.09% 4.7-5.5% 4.3% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% | 100% 89% 68% 36% 21% 11.6% | -0.1 -1.0 -0.8 |
7 - Iowa St 2 4.80% 4.4-5.1% 5.3% 4.0% 2.7% 3.6% | 100% 92% 71% 47% 25% 12.4% | -0.8 -2.1 -1.2 |
8 - Connecticut 2 4.52% 4.2-4.9% 2.0% 6.0% 4.9% 4.7% | 100% 88% 70% 46% 23% 9.5% | +1.5 +0.4 +0.2 |
9 - Purdue 2 3.31% 3.0-3.6% 4.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% | 100% 92% 69% 42% 17% 7.5% | -0.3 -0.5 -1.2 |
10 - Gonzaga 3 2.65% 2.4-2.9% 1.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% | 100% 91% 60% 34% 13% 5.3% | -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 |
11 - Alabama 4 1.51% 1.3-1.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 85% 53% 20% 10% 4.3% | -- -0.4 -0.6 |
12 - Michigan St 3 1.36% 1.2-1.6% 1.8% 3.0% 1.5% 1.8% | 100% 90% 48% 23% 9% 3.2% | +1.6 +0.1 +0.4 |
13 - Arkansas 5 0.88% 0.73-1.03% 0.6% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 80% 44% 13% 6% 2.4% | +1.1 -0.1 +0.5 |
14 ▲1 Tennessee 6 0.86% 0.71-1.02% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% | 100% 71% 45% 20% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.2 +0.0 | ALIGNED
15 ▼1 Nebraska 4 0.85% 0.70-1.00% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% | 100% 88% 48% 19% 7% 2.6% | -- +0.1 +0.0 | ALIGNED
16 ▲1 Vanderbilt 4 0.77% 0.63-0.91% 1.1% 2.0% 0.8% 1.4% | 100% 80% 45% 15% 6% 2.5% | +1.2 +0.0 +0.6 |
17 ▼1 Louisville 6 0.76% 0.62-0.91% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% | 100% 73% 43% 19% 6% 2.1% | -- -0.3 +0.0 |
18 - St John's 5 0.73% 0.60-0.87% 0.6% 2.0% 1.1% 1.5% | 100% 77% 39% 13% 6% 2.3% | +1.3 +0.4 +0.7 |
19 - Virginia 3 0.57% 0.45-0.70% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% | 100% 85% 42% 17% 6% 1.9% | -- +0.5 +0.6 |
20 - Kansas 4 0.49% 0.38-0.60% 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% 1.7% | 100% 83% 51% 15% 7% 1.9% | +1.5 +0.0 +1.2 |
21 - Texas Tech 5 0.47% 0.36-0.58% 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% | 100% 72% 40% 14% 5% 1.6% | -- +0.1 +0.4 |
22 - Wisconsin 5 0.33% 0.24-0.42% 0.3% 2.0% -- 1.3% | 100% 70% 35% 10% 4% 1.1% | +1.7 -- +0.9 |
23 - BYU 6 0.28% 0.20-0.37% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 68% 31% 11% 3% 0.9% | +1.7 +0.0 +0.2 |
24 - St Mary's CA 7 0.18% 0.11-0.25% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 60% 17% 9% 2% 0.8% | -- -- +0.1 |
25 - Ohio St 8 0.14% 0.08-0.20% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 67% 15% 7% 2% 0.5% | -- -- +0.3 |
26 - Georgia 8 0.13% 0.07-0.19% 0.0% -- -- 0.2% | 100% 52% 16% 6% 2% 0.7% | -- -- +0.1 |
27 ▲1 Utah St 8 0.10% 0.05-0.16% 0.1% -- -- 0.3% | 100% 46% 9% 4% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.2 |
28 ▼1 North Carolina 6 0.10% 0.05-0.15% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% | 100% 64% 20% 5% 2% 0.5% | -- +0.6 +0.6 |
29 - Clemson 9 0.09% 0.04-0.14% -- 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% | 100% 61% 16% 8% 2% 0.6% | -- +0.0 +0.2 |
30 - UCLA 7 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% | 100% 50% 11% 4% 1% 0.4% | -- +0.3 +0.5 |
31 - Kentucky 7 0.08% 0.04-0.13% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% | 100% 60% 18% 6% 1% 0.4% | -- +0.2 +0.8 |
32 ▲1 Miami FL 7 0.06% 0.02-0.10% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 58% 18% 6% 1% 0.3% | -- -- +0.4 |
33 ▼1 VCU 11 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 27% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
34 ▲1 St Louis 9 0.05% 0.02-0.09% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% | 100% 48% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- +0.2 +0.2 |
35 ▼1 Iowa 9 0.04% 0.01-0.08% 0.1% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 54% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
36 - Texas A&M 10 0.04% 0.01-0.07% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 100% 50% 10% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
37 - Villanova 8 0.03% 0.00-0.06% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 39% 10% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
38 - NC State 10 0.02% 0.00-0.04% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% | 100% 40% 12% 4% 1% 0.1% | -- +0.2 +0.3 |
39 ▲1 Santa Clara 10 0.02% 0.00-0.05% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 40% 11% 4% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
40 ▲2 Texas 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 32% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
41 ▲3 UCF 10 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 42% 10% 3% 1% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
42 ▼1 SMU 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% 0.0% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 100% 36% 9% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
43 ▼4 South Florida 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.1% | 100% 30% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
44 ▼1 Missouri 11 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 29% 11% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
45 - McNeese St 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 99.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 28% 10% 2% 0% 0.1% | +99.0 -- +0.1 |
46 - Akron 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- -- -- 0.2% | 100% 20% 6% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
47 ▲1 High Point 13 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 20% 5% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
48 ▼1 Miami OH 12 0.01% 0.00-0.03% -- 1.0% -- 0.1% | 100% 23% 5% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Ensemble: 65% LightGBM + 35% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53973 | 10,000 bracket sims
Features: 53 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 19 07:30 CET | BPI: Mar 19 07:34 CET | Odds: Mar 15 01:04 CET | Injuries: Mar 19 07:34 CET | Kaggle: Mar 19 02:05 CET
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 21.1% vs sharp 15.5% (+5.6%)
▲ Houston: model 9.5% vs sharp 7.9% (+1.6%)
▲ Iowa St: model 4.8% vs sharp 3.6% (+1.2%)
▲ Purdue: model 3.3% vs sharp 2.2% (+1.2%)
▲ Gonzaga: model 2.6% vs sharp 1.5% (+1.1%)