Team Seed Model% 90% CI Kalshi% Poly% Sharp% | R64 R32 S16 E8 F4 Title | K-Diff P-Diff S-Diff | Signal
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1 Duke 1 20.73% 20.4-21.0% 25.0% 21.0% 20.0% | 100% 96% 84% 70% 50% 33.1% | +4.3 +0.3 -0.7 |
2 Arizona 1 16.25% 16.0-16.5% 14.0% 11.1% 15.2% | 100% 96% 84% 68% 46% 28.4% | -2.2 -5.2 -1.0 | MODEL HIGHER
3 Michigan 1 15.81% 15.5-16.1% 20.0% 19.0% 19.5% | 100% 95% 83% 66% 44% 27.3% | +4.2 +3.2 +3.7 | MARKETS HIGHER
4 Houston 2 9.95% 9.7-10.2% 7.0% 8.0% 7.2% | 100% 96% 80% 61% 34% 19.0% | -2.9 -2.0 -2.8 | MODEL HIGHER
5 Florida 2 9.85% 9.6-10.1% 13.0% 11.4% 9.5% | 100% 94% 78% 58% 33% 18.4% | +3.1 +1.6 -0.3 |
6 Illinois 2 7.39% 7.2-7.6% 5.0% 5.1% 4.6% | 100% 95% 77% 55% 29% 15.1% | -2.4 -2.3 -2.7 | MODEL HIGHER
7 Connecticut 1 5.67% 5.5-5.8% 7.0% 7.4% 4.8% | 100% 94% 75% 49% 29% 13.3% | +1.3 +1.7 -0.9 |
8 Purdue 3 2.33% 2.2-2.4% 3.0% 3.1% 2.1% | 100% 91% 66% 34% 14% 6.0% | +0.7 +0.8 -0.2 | ALIGNED
9 Michigan St 2 2.25% 2.1-2.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.9% | 100% 94% 68% 41% 17% 6.6% | -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 | ALIGNED
10 Iowa St 3 1.92% 1.8-2.0% 4.0% 2.9% 3.7% | 100% 89% 62% 30% 12% 5.0% | +2.1 +1.0 +1.8 |
11 Gonzaga 4 1.67% 1.6-1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.5% | 66% 58% 43% 17% 10% 4.1% | +0.3 +0.2 -0.1 | ALIGNED
12 Alabama 4 0.76% 0.70-0.83% 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% | 66% 58% 39% 14% 6% 2.4% | +0.2 +0.0 +0.4 |
13 Louisville 6 0.54% 0.49-0.59% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% | 100% 77% 47% 19% 6% 2.0% | +0.5 +0.3 +0.4 |
14 Tennessee 5 0.53% 0.48-0.58% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% | 100% 83% 41% 12% 5% 1.8% | +0.5 +0.5 +0.7 |
15 Virginia 3 0.52% 0.47-0.58% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% | 100% 94% 56% 21% 6% 2.0% | +0.5 +0.4 +0.5 |
16 St John's 4 0.49% 0.44-0.54% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% | 67% 59% 38% 12% 5% 1.6% | +0.5 +0.5 +0.8 |
17 Kansas 4 0.46% 0.41-0.51% 3.0% 2.0% 2.2% | 67% 58% 39% 11% 5% 1.6% | +2.5 +1.5 +1.8 |
18 Texas Tech 4 0.43% 0.38-0.47% 1.0% 1.4% 0.8% | 67% 61% 39% 11% 5% 1.6% | +0.6 +1.0 +0.4 |
19 Arkansas 5 0.39% 0.34-0.43% 2.0% 1.1% 1.4% | 100% 81% 39% 12% 4% 1.4% | +1.6 +0.7 +1.0 |
20 Nebraska 4 0.39% 0.35-0.44% 2.0% 1.3% 1.1% | 67% 58% 36% 11% 4% 1.4% | +1.6 +0.9 +0.7 |
21 Vanderbilt 5 0.37% 0.32-0.41% 2.0% 0.8% 0.9% | 100% 84% 42% 12% 5% 1.4% | +1.6 +0.4 +0.5 |
22 BYU 6 0.18% 0.15-0.22% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% | 100% 67% 34% 11% 3% 0.8% | +0.8 +0.1 +0.4 |
23 St Mary's CA 8 0.13% 0.10-0.15% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 47% 11% 5% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
24 North Carolina 6 0.13% 0.10-0.15% 1.0% 2.1% 1.1% | 100% 65% 32% 10% 2% 0.6% | +0.9 +2.0 +0.9 |
25 Auburn 10 0.13% 0.11-0.16% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% | 67% 51% 15% 7% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.0 |
26 Kentucky 7 0.10% 0.07-0.12% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% | 100% 62% 18% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 +0.5 +0.9 |
27 Villanova 6 0.09% 0.07-0.11% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 60% 30% 8% 2% 0.5% | +0.9 -- +0.3 |
28 Wisconsin 7 0.08% 0.06-0.10% 1.0% -- 0.8% | 100% 60% 16% 7% 2% 0.3% | +0.9 -- +0.7 |
29 St Louis 8 0.05% 0.03-0.07% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% | 67% 46% 8% 3% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.5 +0.5 |
30 UCLA 9 0.05% 0.04-0.07% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 100% 54% 10% 4% 1% 0.3% | +0.9 +0.1 +0.3 |
31 Georgia 8 0.05% 0.04-0.07% -- -- 0.3% | 66% 42% 8% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.2 |
32 Clemson 8 0.04% 0.03-0.06% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% | 67% 43% 7% 3% 1% 0.2% | +1.0 +0.2 +0.3 |
33 Texas A&M 11 0.03% 0.02-0.04% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 50% 23% 11% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
34 Santa Clara 11 0.03% 0.02-0.05% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 19% 9% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.1 |
35 Texas 10 0.03% 0.01-0.04% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 66% 47% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
36 Utah St 8 0.03% 0.02-0.04% -- -- 0.3% | 67% 42% 9% 3% 1% 0.2% | -- -- +0.3 |
37 NC State 8 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% | 67% 41% 6% 2% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 +0.6 +0.4 |
38 Ohio St 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 66% 46% 9% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
39 Missouri 10 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.4% | 67% 45% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.4 |
40 Iowa 9 0.02% 0.01-0.03% 1.0% -- 0.5% | 100% 47% 8% 3% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.5 |
41 Indiana 11 0.01% 0.01-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 20% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
42 SMU 10 0.01% 0.00-0.02% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 67% 46% 10% 4% 1% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
43 VCU 11 0.01% 0.00-0.01% 1.0% -- 0.2% | 50% 18% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.2 |
44 New Mexico 11 0.01% 0.00-0.01% -- -- -- | 50% 14% 5% 1% 0% 0.0% | -- -- -- |
45 TCU 10 0.01% 0.00-0.01% -- -- 0.2% | 67% 44% 8% 2% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.2 |
46 UCF 9 0.01% 0.00-0.01% 1.0% -- 0.3% | 100% 39% 6% 2% 0% 0.1% | +1.0 -- +0.3 |
47 South Florida 12 0.01% 0.00-0.01% -- -- 0.1% | 66% 28% 8% 1% 0% 0.1% | -- -- +0.1 |
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Model: 70% LightGBM + 30% KenPom LR | LOSO Log-Loss: 0.53618 | 50,000 bracket sims
Features: 45 LGB + 5 LR
Data ages: KenPom: Mar 06 15:02 | BPI: Mar 06 15:03 | Odds: Mar 06 15:03 | Injuries: Mar 06 09:33 | Kaggle: Mar 06 00:36
Value picks (model > market):
▲ Arizona: model 16.2% vs sharp 15.2% (+1.0%)
▲ Houston: model 10.0% vs sharp 7.2% (+2.8%)
▲ Illinois: model 7.4% vs sharp 4.6% (+2.7%)