Results vs Model

2026-03-04 – 2026-03-14 — 187 D1 games tracked (20 with ensemble). Predictions snapshotted before data refresh (out-of-sample).

DateWinnerScoreLoserEnsembleSimple LR
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 (12) Dayton 70 - 69 ( 9) St Louis (A) LR: 30% Dayton
2026-03-14 ( 4) Vanderbilt 91 - 74 ( 1) Florida (A) Ens: 32% Vanderbilt LR: 35% Vanderbilt
2026-03-14 (12) Wichita St 81 - 68 Tulsa (H) LR: 39% St
2026-03-14 (14) Penn 62 - 60 Harvard (A) LR: 50% Penn
2026-03-14 (11) San Diego St 64 - 62 New Mexico (H) LR: 54% St
2026-03-14 (16) UMBC 74 - 59 Vermont (H) LR: 62% UMBC
2026-03-14 ( 3) Purdue 73 - 66 ( 8) UCLA (A) Ens: 71% Purdue LR: 72% Purdue
2026-03-14 (11) Yale 88 - 76 Cornell (H) LR: 78% Yale
2026-03-14 ( 4) Arkansas 93 - 90 Mississippi (H) LR: 80% Arkansas
2026-03-14 (11) VCU 77 - 64 St Joseph's PA (H) LR: 81% VCU
2026-03-14 ( 1) Michigan 68 - 65 ( 5) Wisconsin (H) Ens: 84% Michigan LR: 84% Michigan
2026-03-14 (10) South Florida 86 - 64 Charlotte (H) LR: 88% Florida
2026-03-14 (16) Howard 70 - 63 NC Central (H) LR: 88% Howard
2026-03-13
2026-03-13 ( 5) Wisconsin 91 - 88 ( 3) Illinois (A) Ens: 25% Wisconsin LR: 27% Wisconsin
2026-03-13 (15) Kennesaw 79 - 73 Sam Houston St (A) LR: 34% Kennesaw
2026-03-13 Charlotte 83 - 78 UAB (A) LR: 37% Charlotte
2026-03-13 ( 4) Vanderbilt 75 - 68 ( 6) Tennessee (H) Ens: 47% Vanderbilt LR: 53% Vanderbilt
2026-03-13 Louisiana Tech 69 - 66 Missouri St (H) LR: 51% Tech
2026-03-13 (16) Prairie View 74 - 55 Alabama A&M (A) LR: 56% View
2026-03-13 Toledo 77 - 67 Massachusetts (H) LR: 66% Toledo
2026-03-13 (12) Dayton 68 - 63 St Bonaventure (H) LR: 72% Dayton
2026-03-13 ( 4) St John's 78 - 68 Seton Hall (H) LR: 74% John's
2026-03-13 ( 9) St Louis 88 - 81 G Washington (H) LR: 74% Louis
2026-03-13 Tulsa 90 - 84 North Texas (H) LR: 79% Tulsa
2026-03-13 ( 1) Florida 71 - 63 ( 7) Kentucky (H) Ens: 81% Florida LR: 82% Florida
2026-03-13 (11) VCU 71 - 66 Duquesne (H) LR: 83% VCU
2026-03-13 ( 1) Michigan 71 - 67 ( 9) Ohio St (H) Ens: 84% Michigan LR: 86% Michigan
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 Massachusetts 87 - 83 (11) Miami OH (A) LR: 23% Massachusetts
2026-03-12 St Bonaventure 63 - 57 George Mason (A) LR: 36% Bonaventure
2026-03-12 ( 7) Miami FL 78 - 73 ( 6) Louisville (H) LR: 40% FL
2026-03-12 ( 9) Ohio St 72 - 69 ( 9) Iowa (H) Ens: 48% St LR: 50% St
2026-03-12 Duquesne 67 - 61 Rhode Island (H) LR: 51% Duquesne
2026-03-12 Alabama A&M 85 - 74 TX Southern (A) LR: 54% A&M
2026-03-12 Toledo 77 - 76 Bowling Green (H) LR: 54% Toledo
2026-03-12 ( 2) Iowa St 75 - 53 ( 5) Texas Tech (A) Ens: 59% St LR: 68% St
2026-03-12 ( 3) Virginia 81 - 74 (10) NC State (H) Ens: 61% Virginia LR: 67% Virginia
2026-03-12 Seton Hall 72 - 61 Creighton (H) LR: 64% Hall
2026-03-12 ( 7) Kentucky 78 - 72 (10) Missouri (A) Ens: 69% Kentucky LR: 66% Kentucky
2026-03-12 ( 5) Wisconsin 85 - 82 Washington (H) LR: 70% Wisconsin
2026-03-12 ( 6) Tennessee 72 - 62 (11) Auburn (H) LR: 71% Tennessee
2026-03-12 G Washington 66 - 62 Fordham (A) LR: 74% Washington
2026-03-12 ( 4) St John's 85 - 72 Providence (H) LR: 82% John's
2026-03-12 ( 7) Utah St 80 - 60 UNLV (H) LR: 83% St
2026-03-12 (12) Akron 73 - 70 Buffalo (H) LR: 85% Akron
2026-03-12 ( 1) Arizona 81 - 59 (10) UCF (H) Ens: 90% Arizona LR: 92% Arizona
2026-03-11
2026-03-11 Loyola-Chicago 75 - 67 Richmond (A) LR: 21% Loyola-Chicago
2026-03-11 (10) UCF 66 - 65 Cincinnati (H) LR: 45% UCF
2026-03-11 UNLV 73 - 70 Wyoming (H) LR: 46% UNLV
2026-03-11 Providence 91 - 81 Butler (A) LR: 57% Providence
2026-03-11 (12) McNeese St 76 - 59 SF Austin (A) LR: 61% St
2026-03-11 Washington 83 - 79 USC (H) LR: 62% Washington
2026-03-11 ( 6) Louisville 62 - 58 (11) SMU (H) Ens: 70% Louisville LR: 70% Louisville
2026-03-11 St Bonaventure 99 - 80 La Salle (A) LR: 71% Bonaventure
2026-03-11 ( 7) Kentucky 87 - 82 LSU (H) LR: 71% Kentucky
2026-03-11 (10) NC State 98 - 88 Pittsburgh (H) LR: 79% State
2026-03-11 (11) Auburn 79 - 61 Mississippi St (H) LR: 79% Auburn
2026-03-11 ( 9) Iowa 75 - 64 Maryland (H) LR: 88% Iowa
2026-03-11 ( 2) Iowa St 91 - 42 Arizona St (H) LR: 90% St
2026-03-11 Nevada 80 - 45 Air Force (H) LR: 97% Nevada
2026-03-10
2026-03-10 Pittsburgh 64 - 63 Stanford (A) LR: 34% Pittsburgh
2026-03-10 Maryland 70 - 60 Oregon (A) LR: 41% Maryland
2026-03-10 Arizona St 83 - 79 Baylor (H) LR: 42% St
2026-03-10 (16) Prairie View 65 - 56 Alcorn St (H) LR: 71% View
2026-03-10 (11) SMU 86 - 69 Syracuse (H) LR: 71% SMU
2026-03-10 (16) UMBC 91 - 69 MA Lowell (H) LR: 81% UMBC
2026-03-10 Cincinnati 73 - 66 Utah (H) LR: 82% Cincinnati
2026-03-09
2026-03-09 Alcorn St 77 - 65 Alabama St (A) LR: 34% St
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 Long Beach St 84 - 75 (14) Hawaii (A) LR: 23% St
2026-03-08 Boston Univ 73 - 72 Navy (A) LR: 26% Univ
2026-03-08 Campbell 85 - 70 UNC Wilmington (A) LR: 30% Campbell
2026-03-08 (16) Lehigh 76 - 69 Colgate (H) LR: 39% Lehigh
2026-03-08 Rutgers 74 - 62 Penn St (H) LR: 54% Rutgers
2026-03-08 Towson 81 - 56 Col Charleston (A) LR: 55% Towson
2026-03-08 N Kentucky 96 - 76 WI Green Bay (A) LR: 57% Kentucky
2026-03-08 ( 4) Nebraska 84 - 75 ( 9) Iowa (H) Ens: 61% Nebraska LR: 63% Nebraska
2026-03-08 Monmouth NJ 65 - 57 Drexel (H) LR: 61% NJ
2026-03-08 ETSU 69 - 67 W Carolina (H) LR: 65% ETSU
2026-03-08 (12) Northern Iowa 84 - 69 IL Chicago (A) LR: 66% Iowa
2026-03-08 Memphis 96 - 95 Tulane (A) LR: 68% Memphis
2026-03-08 (12) High Point 91 - 76 Winthrop (H) LR: 69% Point
2026-03-08 ( 1) Michigan 90 - 80 ( 2) Michigan St (H) Ens: 70% Michigan LR: 76% Michigan
2026-03-08 UAB 90 - 83 East Carolina (H) LR: 79% UAB
2026-03-08 Rice 80 - 71 UT San Antonio (H) LR: 81% Rice
2026-03-08 Tulsa 78 - 76 Temple (H) LR: 82% Tulsa
2026-03-08 (10) South Florida 83 - 60 Charlotte (H) LR: 88% Florida
2026-03-08 ( 3) Illinois 78 - 72 Maryland (A) LR: 96% Illinois
2026-03-07
2026-03-07 Loyola-Chicago 68 - 62 G Washington (H) LR: 9% Loyola-Chicago
2026-03-07 Marquette 68 - 62 ( 2) Connecticut (H) LR: 11% Marquette
2026-03-07 George Mason 86 - 57 ( 9) St Louis (H) LR: 23% Mason
2026-03-07 Boston College 77 - 69 Notre Dame (H) LR: 29% College
2026-03-07 ( 5) Wisconsin 97 - 93 ( 3) Purdue (A) Ens: 33% Wisconsin LR: 33% Wisconsin
2026-03-07 Florida St 91 - 78 (11) SMU (H) LR: 34% St
2026-03-07 Stanford 85 - 84 (10) NC State (A) LR: 34% Stanford
2026-03-07 UNC Greensboro 75 - 72 Wofford (A) LR: 36% Greensboro
2026-03-07 Florida Intl 92 - 67 WKU (H) LR: 42% Intl
2026-03-07 Fordham 61 - 49 Rhode Island (H) LR: 42% Fordham
2026-03-07 Pittsburgh 71 - 69 Syracuse (A) LR: 44% Pittsburgh
2026-03-07 South Carolina 64 - 61 Mississippi (A) LR: 44% Carolina
2026-03-07 Liberty 79 - 72 Sam Houston St (H) LR: 46% Liberty
2026-03-07 ( 4) Vanderbilt 86 - 82 ( 6) Tennessee (A) Ens: 47% Vanderbilt LR: 52% Vanderbilt
2026-03-07 New Mexico St 79 - 76 (15) Kennesaw (H) LR: 49% St
2026-03-07 ( 9) TCU 73 - 63 Cincinnati (H) LR: 50% TCU
2026-03-07 Wake Forest 80 - 73 California (H) LR: 51% Forest
2026-03-07 Duquesne 79 - 77 Richmond (H) LR: 52% Duquesne
2026-03-07 Butler 81 - 71 DePaul (A) LR: 57% Butler
2026-03-07 Campbell 96 - 89 Stony Brook (A) LR: 60% Campbell
2026-03-07 NJIT 60 - 58 Maine (H) LR: 60% NJIT
2026-03-07 MTSU 75 - 63 Missouri St (A) LR: 61% MTSU
2026-03-07 ( 7) Utah St 94 - 90 New Mexico (H) LR: 61% St
2026-03-07 Boise St 78 - 67 Colorado St (A) LR: 62% St
2026-03-07 Davidson 68 - 63 St Bonaventure (A) LR: 63% Davidson
2026-03-07 ( 6) Louisville 92 - 89 ( 7) Miami FL (A) LR: 63% Louisville
2026-03-07 Drexel 84 - 77 Northeastern (H) LR: 65% Drexel
2026-03-07 Jacksonville St 64 - 61 UTEP (A) LR: 66% St
2026-03-07 (12) Wichita St 88 - 70 FL Atlantic (H) LR: 67% St
2026-03-07 Mercyhurst 56 - 51 Stonehill (H) LR: 69% Mercyhurst
2026-03-07 Cent Arkansas 73 - 63 FGCU (H) LR: 70% Arkansas
2026-03-07 Louisiana Tech 81 - 38 Delaware (A) LR: 72% Tech
2026-03-07 (16) LIU Brooklyn 64 - 56 Wagner (H) LR: 72% Brooklyn
2026-03-07 ( 4) Arkansas 88 - 84 (10) Missouri (A) Ens: 73% Arkansas LR: 76% Arkansas
2026-03-07 IL Chicago 72 - 51 Drake (H) LR: 74% Chicago
2026-03-07 St Joseph's PA 88 - 76 La Salle (H) LR: 74% PA
2026-03-07 Cornell 111 - 90 Dartmouth (A) LR: 75% Cornell
2026-03-07 Winthrop 73 - 71 Presbyterian (H) LR: 77% Winthrop
2026-03-07 ( 3) Virginia 76 - 72 Virginia Tech (H) LR: 78% Virginia
2026-03-07 Baylor 101 - 75 Utah (H) LR: 80% Baylor
2026-03-07 ( 8) Villanova 91 - 78 Xavier (H) LR: 81% Villanova
2026-03-07 ( 8) Georgia 102 - 96 Mississippi St (A) LR: 82% Georgia
2026-03-07 ( 1) Florida 84 - 77 ( 7) Kentucky (A) Ens: 83% Florida LR: 82% Florida
2026-03-07 Wyoming 88 - 78 San Jose St (A) LR: 83% Wyoming
2026-03-07 (12) High Point 75 - 71 UNC Asheville (H) LR: 84% Point
2026-03-07 ( 2) Iowa St 86 - 65 Arizona St (H) LR: 87% St
2026-03-07 Vermont 77 - 57 Bryant (H) LR: 88% Vermont
2026-03-07 ( 8) Clemson 79 - 76 Georgia Tech (H) LR: 88% Clemson
2026-03-07 ( 4) Kansas 104 - 85 Kansas St (H) LR: 88% Kansas
2026-03-07 (11) Yale 78 - 53 Princeton (H) LR: 89% Yale
2026-03-07 (16) UMBC 84 - 69 New Hampshire (H) LR: 89% UMBC
2026-03-07 ( 2) Houston 82 - 75 Oklahoma St (A) LR: 90% Houston
2026-03-07 ETSU 83 - 76 Citadel (H) LR: 91% ETSU
2026-03-06
2026-03-06 Drake 100 - 81 Belmont (A) LR: 16% Drake
2026-03-06 FGCU 77 - 53 Lipscomb (A) LR: 39% FGCU
2026-03-06 Northeastern 88 - 72 NC A&T (A) LR: 52% Northeastern
2026-03-06 IL Chicago 94 - 80 Murray St (A) LR: 55% Chicago
2026-03-06 Winthrop 86 - 81 Charleston So (H) LR: 71% Winthrop
2026-03-06 Cent Arkansas 86 - 73 Bellarmine (H) LR: 77% Arkansas
2026-03-06 (14) Hawaii 93 - 74 UC Riverside (H) LR: 80% Hawaii
2026-03-06 (12) High Point 81 - 59 Gardner Webb (H) LR: 98% Point
2026-03-05
2026-03-05 Drake 67 - 63 S Illinois (A) LR: 30% Drake
2026-03-04
2026-03-04 Gardner Webb 65 - 64 SC Upstate (A) LR: 17% Webb
2026-03-04 E Illinois 77 - 71 SIUE (A) LR: 30% Illinois
2026-03-04 Colorado St 82 - 74 New Mexico (A) LR: 32% St
2026-03-04 Stonehill 81 - 71 Le Moyne (A) LR: 34% Stonehill
2026-03-04 La Salle 87 - 84 Fordham (H) LR: 36% Salle
2026-03-04 Marquette 78 - 56 Providence (A) LR: 44% Marquette
2026-03-04 St Joseph's PA 70 - 67 Davidson (A) LR: 46% PA
2026-03-04 N Kentucky 85 - 84 Oakland (A) LR: 47% Kentucky
2026-03-04 Stetson 92 - 76 E Kentucky (A) LR: 48% Stetson
2026-03-04 Rhode Island 64 - 52 Duquesne (H) LR: 51% Island
2026-03-04 Wagner 70 - 60 Central Conn (A) LR: 51% Wagner
2026-03-04 Ga Southern 88 - 84 Old Dominion (H) LR: 51% Southern
2026-03-04 Creighton 76 - 59 Butler (A) LR: 55% Creighton
2026-03-04 Bellarmine 82 - 79 Jacksonville (H) LR: 56% Bellarmine
2026-03-04 ( 7) Miami FL 77 - 69 (11) SMU (A) LR: 58% FL
2026-03-04 Detroit 84 - 63 WI Milwaukee (H) LR: 62% Detroit
2026-03-04 Florida St 75 - 74 Pittsburgh (A) LR: 62% St
2026-03-04 Washington 91 - 72 USC (H) LR: 62% Washington
2026-03-04 Lindenwood 72 - 62 Ark Little Rock (H) LR: 63% Lindenwood
2026-03-04 Stanford 86 - 78 Notre Dame (A) LR: 63% Stanford
2026-03-04 Robert Morris 68 - 53 Youngstown St (H) LR: 64% Morris
2026-03-04 Indiana 77 - 47 Minnesota (H) LR: 67% Indiana
2026-03-04 UAB 80 - 74 Charlotte (A) LR: 68% UAB
2026-03-04 North Texas 62 - 58 Rice (H) LR: 69% Texas
2026-03-04 Mercyhurst 70 - 61 F Dickinson (H) LR: 69% Mercyhurst
2026-03-04 G Washington 91 - 82 St Bonaventure (H) LR: 72% Washington
2026-03-04 James Madison 87 - 72 Louisiana (H) LR: 73% Madison
2026-03-04 ( 4) Arkansas 105 - 85 (11) Texas (H) Ens: 74% Arkansas LR: 65% Arkansas
2026-03-04 California 76 - 65 Georgia Tech (A) LR: 77% California
2026-03-04 FGCU 69 - 58 North Alabama (H) LR: 80% FGCU
2026-03-04 Oral Roberts 84 - 62 Missouri KC (H) LR: 80% Roberts
2026-03-04 ( 8) Villanova 76 - 57 DePaul (A) LR: 83% Villanova
2026-03-04 (16) LIU Brooklyn 79 - 75 Chicago St (H) LR: 86% Brooklyn
2026-03-04 ( 2) Houston 77 - 64 Baylor (H) LR: 87% Houston
2026-03-04 (14) Wright St 90 - 61 Cleveland St (H) LR: 87% St
2026-03-04 ( 3) Purdue 70 - 66 Northwestern (A) LR: 87% Purdue
2026-03-04 ( 5) Wisconsin 78 - 45 Maryland (H) LR: 89% Wisconsin
2026-03-04 ( 9) Ohio St 94 - 62 Penn St (A) LR: 90% St
2026-03-04 ( 9) St Louis 79 - 65 Loyola-Chicago (H) LR: 97% Louis
Ensemble (20 games): Accuracy: 14/20 (70%) Log-Loss: 0.515 Brier: 0.171
Simple LR: Accuracy: 139/187 (74%) Log-Loss: 0.539 Brier: 0.181